DFS Golf Picks
The American Express
Digest information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 American Express, and take a look at our PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your daily fantasy lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last week: Kevin Na came up huge last week at the Sony Open to win his fifth career PGA Tour tournament with a score of -21, one better than Joaquin Niemann and Chris Kirk – congrats to him! It’s a bit sad that the PGA Tour has moved on from Hawaii for the year as the beautiful scenery was nice to see, especially being in pandemic lockdown in snowy Ontario, Canada. Sunny Southern California isn’t too hard on the eyes either though 😉
Preview for The American Express: The PGA Tour heads east from Honolulu, Hawaii, to southern California, in an event that has been played on the PGA Tour since 1960. The past five winners of this event (named The American Express, the Desert Classic presented by Workday, and the CareerBuilder Classic in partnership with the Clinton Foundation, during these five years) include 2020 – Andrew Landry, 2019 – Adam Long, 2018 – Jon Rahm, 2017 – Hudson Swafford, and 2016 – Jason Dufner.
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $6.7M, the winner receives $1.206M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Traditionally this event is played on three different courses, but the 2021 edition of the tournament will be played on only the Stadium and the Nicklaus Tournament courses at PGA West – La Quinta Country Club was dropped this year because of safety precautions related to the pandemic. The two host courses are both par 72’s and feature bermudagrass greens – the TPC Stadium Course is 7,113 yards, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to 7,154 yards. The winning score is typically lower than -20 with the event record currently sitting at an insane -36, so expect to see tons of birdies and a few eagles as well this week – a trend we have enjoyed at both tournaments already, in 2021. Some of the key player stats to research this week are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda, and last but certainly not least – Birdies or Better Gained.
The field: We will see a full-field of players this week with this tournament consistently featuring 156 professionals in action on an annual basis – the top 65 plus ties will get to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. We will see a few elite golfers in the field including Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, among up-and-coming talent such as Matthew Wolff and legendary vets, most notably, Phil Mickelson. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B-. The field for this year is perhaps the strongest we have ever seen in the 61 years since its inception – it’s just too bad that there will be no fans on hand to see it live.
Notable storylines: It will be different than normal to not have the pro-am component of the tournament, and the cut line moving from 54 holes to 36 will be a change as well. Andrew Landry looks to become the first repeat champion at this tournament since 1975 and 1976 when Johnny Miller went back-to-back when the event was named the Bob Hope Desert Classic. Adam Hadwin hasn’t been playing very well as of late but you can’t argue with the success he has had at this event as from 2017 to 2019 he went 2nd-T3-T2, so this track has been very good to him and his bank account – he missed last year’s event due to the birth of his first child.
Betting strategy this week: If you like full-field events and cut lines as I do, then you will surely enjoy this week’s event as it has been quite a while since we have experienced the largest field possible on the PGA Tour with 156 golfers in action. When it comes down to cut lines in full-field events, I tend to be a bit more balanced in my lineups to try to get as many 6-player lineups into the weekend as possible, while still trying to get one or two high-salary players with win equity in each as well. Don’t be shy to put together some stars and scrubs lineups also, but make sure your scrubs have a legitimate chance of making the cut and have some decent upside for a top 30 finish.
All the best for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K, FanDuel – $11.2K) – I originally had Rahm here but with him dropping out I had to replace him with either Brooks Koepka or Tony Finau in this range – decided to go with Finau who’s more consistent with good to great results but has less win equity than Brooks. He has three top 11’s so far this season including an 8th at the U.S. Open back in September and has yet to miss a cut in six starts. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T14 and 2016 – Cut.
Patrick Reed (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K, FanDuel – $11.5K) – Reed won this event 7 years ago and is always a threat to win on any given week due to his polished skill set and the way he can grind. He has finished no worse than T21 over his last five starts, he was T10 at the Masters, T13 at the U.S. Open, and had a T3 at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour in an elite event. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T12, and 2016 – T56.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – Cantlay won three starts ago at the ZOZO Championship when he put up 25 birdies and only bogeyed two holes for 143.5 DK points, wow! He also had a T8 at the Shriners, a T17 at the Masters, and hasn’t missed a cut in 7 starts – something he’s quite remarkable at doing from season to season. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2019 – T9.
The $9K Range
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K, FanDuel – n/a) – Henley is top 9 in some key stat categories including tee to green, approach, and strokes gained total. It’s no wonder then that he has a T3, a T4, and a T11 this season in seven starts, and more impressive finishes are surely around the corner for Russell. His record at this event over the past few years is quite poor, but his game is in great shape right now and it should net him a decent result this week. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T49.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – Im seems to be having an excellent finish every other tournament he plays – runner-up at the Masters, cut at The RSM Classic, T5 at the Tournament of Champions, and T56 at the Sony Open last week. If the trend continues we should see another top 5 this week and all fantasy users who own him will be thrilled. He’s 9 for 10 so far this season and has traditionally made a ton of cuts, so if you want a safe play with lots of upside then look to Sungjae for his services. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T10 and 2019 – T12.
The $8K Range
Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K, FanDuel – $10.4K) – Long won this tournament just two years ago after he went off for a -26 to beat Phil Mickelson and Adam Hadwin by a single stroke. He has been quite good lately going T11, T30, T3 over his most recent starts, begun his season on the right foot with a T13 at the U.S. Open back in September, and followed that up with a solo 5th right after. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – Won.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K, FanDuel – $9.9K) – Kizzire extended his impressive play last week where he was T7 at the Sony Open thanks to two 64’s and a 65. He has three top 11’s over his past four outings and has finished no worse than T32 in his last five starts, plus he has made seven straight cuts. His putting, distance off the tee, birdie and eagle average, and scoring average are all very impressive so far in this campaign. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T42, 2017 – T50, and 2016 – T42.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K, FanDuel – $10.3K) – Bombs-away Burns is 5th in driving distance, 5th in greens in regulation, 25th in scoring average, and has lots of other impressive stats since he started his season in mid-September. He has two T7’s, two other top 34’s, only one missed cut in five starts, and has been solid in two starts at this tournament over the past two years. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T6 and 2019 – T18.
The $7K Range
Charles Howell III (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K, FanDuel – $9.6K) – Howell III is coming off of his best finish so far this season with a T19 at the Sony Open last week, and finished strong to earn that result with a 64 in his final round on Sunday. He has five top 34’s in seven starts this season and has only missed one cut which happened back in September. He tends to play his best golf early in the new year, so now is a good time to own CH3. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T34, 2018 – T20, 2017 – T12, and 2016 – T11.
Peter Malnati (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K, FanDuel – $8.7K) – Malnati is 2nd so far in strokes gained putting, is putting up tons of birdies as a result (10th overall), and is 19th in scoring average – not too shabby for the 33-year-old. He has a runner-up finish this season, a T5, was T14 last week (opening with a 62 in the opening round), and has finished no worse than T48 over his last seven starts outside of his single missed cut. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T18, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – 77th, and 2016 – Cut.
John Huh (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K, FanDuel – $8.6K) – Huh is 2nd in scoring average so far this season – while that comes in just four starts, you can’t deny that 69.192 is quite impressive for an average round. He has three top 20’s in four starts, and the other start he managed a T48 at the Houston Open, so he seems like a pretty safe and good fantasy play for a low $7K player on DK. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T48, 2019 – T70, 2018 – T3, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T24.
The $6K Range
Martin Laird (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.4K) – I’m not a huge fan of the scrubs for this week, so I’ll be doing my best to stay in the $7K range and above on DK unless I can find some hidden gems as the week goes on through deeper research. Laird is a player that stands out to me as he won four starts ago at the Shriners, but since then he has two missed cuts and had a T17 at the Tournament of Champions which was a bit better than average given the field size was limited to 42 players. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T9, and 2016 – T49.
Brice Garnett (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K, FanDuel – $7.7K) – He is 5 for 6 since mid-October and is coming off of back to back T32’s. He tends to rely on his putter too much for scoring, but that’s the case for many of the scrubs on the PGA Tour so don’t hold his mediocre ball-striking against him. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2018 – T63, and 2016 – Cut.
Jim Herman (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K, FanDuel – n/a) – 43-year-old Herman had COVID-19 not too long ago and it prevented him from playing in the Tournament of Champions, unfortunately, but he did follow up that missed opportunity with a T32 last week in Honolulu. He has four straight made cuts and did win last year at the Wyndham Championship which was huge for the Cincinnati-native. American Express finishes over the past five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, and 2016 – T49.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions
The $10K+ Range
- Webb Simpson – T4
- Collin Morikawa – T7
- Joaquin Niemann – T2
The $9K Range
- Cameron Smith – T62
- Ryan Palmer – T41
- Abraham Ancer – Cut
The $8K Range
- Russell Henley – T11
- Sergio Garcia – T47
- Brendon Todd – T41
The $7K Range
- Emiliano Grillo – T47
- Sebastian Munoz – T65
- Patton Kizzire – T7
The $6K Range
- Doug Ghim – Cut
- Robert Streb – T67
- Peter Malnati – T14
