PGA DFS Picks
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Take in the insights you need from this article to enhance your fantasy golf picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last week: There wasn’t a whole lot of drama to speak of last week as Collin Morikawa didn’t make many mistakes and won the WGC – Workday Championship with ease over Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, and Billy Horschel, so congrats to the young stud! It was fun to see a brand new course on the PGA Tour too, and it sure didn’t disappoint as it challenged the players throughout the week and it’s truly a beautiful gem of a track.
Preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: The PGA Tour remains in Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and will for the next two weeks as well for THE PLAYERS Championship next week, and The Honda Classic in a couple of weeks. This tournament dates back to 1966 when it was originally named the Florida Citrus Open Invitational, but has been a staple at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979. Arnold Palmer’s name has been associated with the event since 2007, and I suspect we will never see it change again in memory of one of golf’s best-ever players. Last year’s event consisted of a very tough test of golf, especially in round 4, as the winning score by Tyrrell Hatton was a mere -4 – the highest score at this tournament since 1983 when Mike Nicolette had a final score of -1. The past five winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational include Tyrrell Hatton in 2020, Francesco Molinari in 2019, Rory McIlroy in 2018, Marc Leishman in 2017, and Jason Day in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $9.3M, the winner receives a generous $1.674M and also earns himself 550 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Bay Hill Club and Lodge is hosting this event for the 42nd consecutive year, the track is 7,454 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermuda. The winning score over the past ten years ranges from -4 to -19, so you can bet that the player who wins this week will have a score in this range – typically though, it’s around -13. Some of the key player stats to take into account this week are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5’s, birdies or better, greens in regulation, and proximity from 200+ yards.
The field: The field currently stands at 123 players but could be as low as 120 should past winners Robert Gamez, Paul Goydos, or Tim Herron withdraw as they can’t be replaced by current PGA Tour golfers. The top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will move forward to play the weekend rounds, the rest will be cut and forced to lick their wounds on the sidelines. A few elite and big-name players are in the field including Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, defending champ Tyrrell Hatton, up-and-comer Will Zalatoris, and others. Tiger Woods has won this event a ridiculous 8 times in his incredible career – unfortunately he won’t be playing this week and we wish him nothing but the best in his recovery efforts from his recent SUV accident. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B-.
Lineup construction strategy this week: With the cut line back in effect this week after the no-cut WGC event last week, you will need to look for golfers who can play all four rounds and have upside. I’ll be likely into hybrid builds this week where each of the salary ranges is represented, but will also mix in stars and scrubs and balanced configurations, as well. Getting 6/6 into the weekend is always the goal, but it doesn’t always mean that you will cash, so you need players on each lineup who are legit top 10 threats and have some win equity.
All the best in your quest to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years, and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K, FanDuel – $11.9K) – Hovland could have won his second tournament in his last six starts had he not had a quad (an 8 on a par 4, specifically) on his final hole in round 2 last week as he ended up three strokes behind the eventual victor, Collin Morikawa. Nonetheless, he still has four straight top 6’s between the PGA Tour and the European Tour (including two runner-ups) and he won back in December at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He looks ready for stardom and the only reason you may not want to play him this week is because of his high salary numbers or poor course history, but don’t let either discourage you from owning him. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T42 and 2019 – T40.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K, FanDuel – $11.5K) – I wasn’t fully on Hatton last week but I’m quite interested in the defending champ this week as he’s more acclimated to North America now and plays well in Florida overall, has good course history here, and his overall stats are quite impressive. Half of his 8 cuts made went for top 10’s, he won four starts ago at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, and everything points to a strong week for him – defending his title is very much in play. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 – T29, 2018 – T69, and 2017 – T4.
The $9K Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K, FanDuel – $11.1K) – Fitzpatrick has hit the ground running since coming from the European Tour with a T5 at The Genesis Invitational and he was T11 last week thanks to his opening round of 66. Fitz also has fantastic results at this event and seems poised to keep the good times rolling this week. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T9, 2019 – runner-up, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T13, and 2016 – T27.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K, FanDuel – $11.3K) – Im was a tad inconsistent last week, perhaps it was because of his unusual three-week break, but he’s back in play again this week and has my attention. He still managed a T28 last week, is 13 for 14 this season, and has two top 10’s. This course really fits his game well, and it will be interesting to see if he can make it three straight years with top 3 finishes. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T3 and 2019 – T3.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K, FanDuel – $11.0K) – I struggled a bit to decide between Casey or Spieth for this spot but went with Casey as he won three starts ago at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, has four straight top 12’s, and has some decent course history at the API, as well. He has three top 10’s in nine starts since mid-September, and I could certainly see him adding number four this week. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T41 and 2016 – T9.
The $8K Range
Francesco Molinari (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K, FanDuel – $10.3K) – Molinari now has three top 10 finishes in his last four starts including his T8 at The Genesis Invitational. He has been so sound at this tournament as well, and actually won here the last time he competed at the API two years ago. I like his salary numbers and his potential to be on the leaderboard all week long. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Won, 2018 – T26, 2017 – T7, and 2016 – T9.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K, FanDuel – $10.0K) – Zalatoris is an amazing young talent, but you probably already know that by now. His strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: tee-to-green are tops in this field, and he’s second in strokes gained: total. His results are very consistent and has a ridiculous 14 top 10’s in his last 27 starts across the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour. He should have a strong API debut this week – a top 10 is a very real possibility.
Marc Leishman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K, FanDuel – $10.1K) – Leishman had a T4 four starts ago at the Sony Open, and has five straight top 39’s. He didn’t make my list because of his recent play though, he made it because of his phenomenally strong play at the API including his win four years ago and runner-up just last year. Don’t get me wrong, I’m much higher on recent form than past tournament results, but I just can’t ignore Marc’s sound play on this challenging track. He’s due for another big finish and I think it comes this week. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Runner-up, 2019 – T23, 2018 – T7, 2017 – Won, and 2016 – T17.
The $7K Range
Matt Jones (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K, FanDuel – $9.0K) – Jones has now made ten straight cut lines and is coming off his second-best finish during that stretch – a T8 at The Genesis Invitational. I think it’s safe to say that Matt will make his 11th straight cut this week, and could even have his second straight top 10. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T47.
Luke List (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K, FanDuel – $9.0K) – Before missing the cut at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, List had three straight top 30’s including a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open. If Luke has a decent putter this week he should see another top 30, and his history at this event is very good, so that’s a positive working for him also. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T10, 2018 – T8, and 2017 – T17.
The $6K Range
Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.5K) – NeSmith comes into this week fairly hot as he has three straight top 20’s – his best being a T7 at the Phoenix Open. He’s one of the best approach players in the field and gains strokes in many other key stat categories as well. He did miss the cut here last year in his first look at the API, but that experience will come in handy this week. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut.
Kyle Stanley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K, FanDuel – $8.0K) – Stanley has made five straight cuts and just missed one in his last nine. He has finished no worse than T39 over his last five tournaments and has no more than 9 bogeys at a tournament in his last eight starts – bogey avoidance matters on challenging courses, so Kyle should do well this week in that category. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T14, and 2017 – T17.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K, FanDuel – $8.2K) – When looking for players in the $6K range you are often looking for guys who consistently play on weekends. Kizzire certainly fits the bill as he has made ten straight cuts dating back to late-September. Patton hasn’t fared overly great at the API, but he’s playing more sound golf than in past years, and I think he should stretch out his cuts made streak to eleven this week. Arnold Palmer International finishes over the last five years: 2018 – Cut and 2017 – Cut.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s WGC- Workday Championship
The $10K+ Range
- Dustin Johnson – T54
- Jon Rahm – T32
- Patrick Cantlay – WD
The $9K Range
- Viktor Hovland – T2
- Tony Finau – 14th
- Daniel Berger – T35
The $8K Range
- Max Homa – T22
- Joaquin Niemann – T28
- Will Zalatoris – T22
The $7K Range
- Ryan Palmer – T54
- Marc Leishman – T39
- Carlos Ortiz – T15
The $6K Range
- Kevin Na – T11
- Abraham Ancer – T18
- Brendon Todd – T18
