PGA DFS Picks
Leverage the information from this article to elevate your fantasy golf picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson, and check out our PGA lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The AT&T Byron Nelson
Recap from last week: It was nice to see Rory McIlroy play his heart out last week and secure his first victory since November 2019. I didn’t see it coming and I actually faded him in my betting article because I thought he was more focused on his baby than golf, and three missed cuts in his six starts prior might have been an indication of his family life winning out over his professional life. It will be interesting to see how he does next week at the PGA Championship and going forward – this win might have been just what he needed to give him a boost in confidence. Last week we saw a tough course on display as Rory won with a -10, but I think it could be a bit of a birdie-fest this week, so be prepared to see some solid scoring on a new PGA Tour course.
Preview for the AT&T Byron Nelson: This event dates back to 1944 when a fellow named Byron Nelson won the inaugural tournament when it was originally named the Texas Victory Open and was played at the Lakewood Country Club in Dallas, Texas. Bryon Nelson has been in the tournament’s name since 1968 with several title sponsors retaining it since that year. This year will see the event played on a course for the first time – TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, and last year there was no tournament in 2020 due to the pandemic. Kang Sung-Hoon and Aaron Wise are tied for the all-time tournament record – Kang in 2019 and Aaron in 2018 shot -23 at the Trinity Forest Golf Club – the only two years that course played host. It’s hard to say what the winning score will be this year as we have never seen the PGA Tour on this track before, but I can almost guarantee that a new event record won’t be set as -23 is a very low score. The past five winners of this event include Kang Sung-Hoon in 2019, Aaron Wise in 2018, Billy Horschel in 2017, Sergio Garcia in 2016, and Steven Bowditch in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $8.1M, the winner receives $1.458M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Craig Ranch stretches out to 7,468 yards, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the past ten editions ranges from -3 to -23 due to different courses being used, and I can confidently say that the winning score this year will be inside these two numbers – by all accounts though, the course should play relatively easy based on looking at its profile, but time will tell. Some of the key stats that you should factor into your player selections this week are strokes gained: tee-to-green, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5’s, strokes gained: putting on bentgrass, and birdies or better gained.
The field: We will be seeing a fairly top-heavy field this week as a bunch of elite players look to tune up their game before next week’s PGA Championship, this season’s fourth major out of six, in total. There are 156 players in action this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 will play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, and lots of other superb players will be teeing it up in the Lone Star State this week, just not Dustin Johnson who had to pull out citing a minor injury. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We again have a large field and a cut line to dance around this week, so be sure to have six golfers in each lineup that are fully capable of making the cut, and deploy at least three or four players who have a legit chance at finishing top 10. I’ll be focusing on hybrid lineups for my core builds, and will mix in some stars and scrubs and balanced configurations, as well, for good measure.
All the best in your quest to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years, and add in some helpful pieces of information and stats, as well.
The $10K+ Range
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Spieth has been playing incredible golf for the last three months with a win at the Texas Open, and four other top 4’s over his last seven starts – that doesn’t even include a T9 at the WGC Match-Play event. He loves playing in his home state of Texas as you might imagine, so watch out this week as he’s a top threat to win for the second time in Texas in just three starts. He has also likely played this course a few times in his life as well, so he has an edge on many of the players who have never set foot on this property. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T29, 2018 – T21, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T18.
Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – It was so incredible to watch Matsuyama win The Masters last month because he has been one of the better players on the PGA Tour for many years, and he finally scored himself a major victory. It’s hard to say how he will perform this week as his life has been a whirlwind back in Japan so he could be a bit rusty on Thursday at the very least. I won’t blame you one bit if you decide to go with Rahm over Hideki in this range, as he’s been very solid outside of his missed cut from last week, I just wanted to honor the Japanese sensation this week. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T23 and 2018 – T16.
The $9K Range
Matthew Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Fitzpatrick has been playing some mighty fine golf since mid-February with five top 11’s in six starts, and his best finish came in his most recent start when he finished T4 at the RBC Heritage. As long as his putter stays hot you can expect him to keep putting up 10’s. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: None.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – Scheffler is another Texas-native who I expect has played a bunch of rounds on this track, but even if he hasn’t he still has five top 29’s over his last seven stroke-play events, and let’s not forget about his runner-up finish at the WGC Match-Play tournament. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T35.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – As you can maybe tell, I’m favoring Texas-native players this week since we are on a new course and I like players who have played a course a few times in the past. Palmer isn’t on his best stretch of the season right now, but he still has four top 17’s in his last six events, two of those are match-play tournaments though, including him finishing T7 with Jon Rahm at the Zurich Classic late last month. The only thing holding him back right now is his around the green play, once that wakes up again he will grab some more top 10’s as everything else looks pretty good. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T43, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T27, and 2016 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Charl Schwartzel (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Schwartzel is getting his career back on track again as he has four straight top 26’s, including him and his partner scoring a runner-up at the Zurich Classic during that stretch. He gained over 10 strokes tee-to-green last week and would have easily had a top 10 finish had he not lost 3.45 strokes putting. I think now is a good time to jump on Charl if you haven’t been on him just yet. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2017 – Cut and 2016 – T58.
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Mitchell was in the mix to win last week thanks to gaining over 12 strokes with his ball-striking – he settled for a T3 which was his best finish in over two years. He had a T4 with his partner at the Zurich Classic and has made five straight-cut lines. He could easily regress this week, but I’m open to rolling him out to see if he can keep his hot play going. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T59 and 2018 – T3.
Thomas Peters (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – We don’t see Peters a ton on the PGA Tour but when he plays on this side of the ocean he tends to have decent finishes. In three starts on the PGA Tour this season he has three top 23’s, including his T23 at the U.S. Open last year. In seven starts between the PGA Tour and the European Tour, he has finished no worse than T41, so he’s a consistent player that you can depend on with regular good results. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: None.
The $7K Range
Brandt Snedeker (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – Snedeker had been playing some bad golf over the past year or more, but he’s starting to find his way again with three top 11’s in his last four starts – his best one being a T4 at the team match-play event last month. He also had a T6 at the Texas Open where he gained over 7 strokes in approach, ball-striking, and tee-to-green. I really don’t like the $7K range too much this week, but Brandt isn’t a half-bad play to help fill out your roster at the bottom of your lineups. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – Cut.
Vincent Whaley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – Whaley is Mr.Consistency right now finishing between T26 and T36 over his last seven starts, one of those was the Zurich Classic, but it still gives you a good idea of what he’s capable of right now. His stats are spotty but he just keeps finding a way – at least his short game has been steady to pull him through. I believe we should see him finish in the 20’s or 30’s again this week, and a result like that is just fine by me for a flat $7K price tag on DK. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: None.
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Noren likely won’t get you a top 10 finish this week, but he does have three straight top 25’s and has only missed four cuts in 15 starts this season. Don’t make him a core player in your lineups this week, but if you’re building 20 or more then consider tossing Noren into one of them. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T35.
The $6K Range
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Finding half-decent players in the $7K range is hard this week, but the $6K range is pretty ridiculous and I would advise to mostly stay away from it. Lee has made five straight cuts including the Zurich Classic, and has three top 29’s during this handful of events. He’s doing it with an approach game, tee-to-green, and ball-striking, which is what you want to see. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T72.
Michael Gligic (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – When I’m looking at players like Gligic, you know it’s slim pickings in the cheapie range. He did have a T4 at the Corales in late March, and has made three straight cuts including two T29’s at the Valspar Championship and the Zurich Classic. It’s hard to say how the Canadian will do this week, but he’s not a terrible option if you need a very low-cost option to polish off your lineups. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: None.
Brice Garnett (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Garnett actually has three top 11’s in his last eight starts, problem is one was the Puerto Rico Open, another was the Corales, and the other one was the Zurich Classic. He’s quite hard to trust as he has three missed cuts in those eight starts that I previously mentioned, but he’s a bit of a popper for high finishes, which is a good thing when selecting value picks. Plus, he did finish T19 at the Korn Ferry Championship in 2012 which was played on this track that year and also in 2008. AT&T Bryon Nelson finishes over the last five years: 2016 – Cut.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s Valspar Championship
The 10K+ Range
- Justin Thomas – T26
- Jon Rahm – Cut
- Xander Schauffele – T14
The $9K Range
- Corey Conners – T43
- Max Homa – Cut
- Viktor Hovland – T3
The $8K Range
- Brian Harman – T18
- Cameron Tringale – Cut
- Keegan Bradley – T18
The $7K Range
- Stewart Cink – T37
- Rickie Fowler – Cut
- Matthew NeSmith – T58
The $6K Range
- Tom Lewis – Cut
- Adam Schenk – Cut
- Kyoung-Hoon Lee – T58
