Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Absorb data and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the John Deere Classic, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The John Deere Classic
Recap from last week: We have now seen 13 playoff holes in the last two weeks – 8 playoff holes two weeks ago when Harris English won, and Cam Davis beat Troy Merritt in five playoff holes last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for his first PGA Tour win – congrats to the Aussie for an outstanding week!
Preview for the John Deere Classic: We have another birdie fest on tap this week as the PGA Tour moves from Detroit, Michigan, to Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic – an event that started back in 1971. The field isn’t very impressive this week due to most of the world’s best players competing overseas in Scotland for the Scottish Open, in preparation for the Open Championship next week in England. We didn’t have a tournament here last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so it’s defending champ Dylan Frittelli who won in 2019 with a score of -21 – two strokes better than Russell Henley. The tournament record was achieved by Michael Kim in 2018 with a super-low score of -27 – an incredible eight strokes better than four other players who tied for 2nd. Winners here over the past five editions include Dylan Frittelli in 2019, Michael Kim in 2018, Bryson DeChambeau in 2017, Ryan Moore in 2016, and Jordan Spieth in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $6.2M, the winner receives $1.116M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Deere Run is 7,268 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at the John Deere Classic over the last ten installments ranges from -18 to -27, so we will be seeing lots of birdies, eagles, and low scores this week, and should again see a winning score in this range. Some of the core key stats to include in your custom models this week are driving accuracy percentage (the most important one by far), strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: off the tee, driving distance, and birdies or better percentage.
The field: As I mentioned earlier in this article, we won’t be seeing a very solid field this week with the Open Championship coming up next week, and many players are getting adjusted to playing overseas and competing at the Scottish Open. Daniel Berger headlines the field this week, Sungjae Im will partake, Si Woo Kim will be in the mix, Brian Harman is set to compete, Russell Henley is hereafter his runner-up finish in 2019, and last week’s winner Cam Davis is in the field as of this writing. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C.
Lineup construction strategy this week: Another full-ish-field will be in action this week where 152 players will be competing to win the 2021 edition of the John Deere Classic. The stars don’t shine too brightly, and the scrubs are messy, so you may want to look into going with hybrid configurations, but stars and scrubs can work too if you keep your low-tier core tight, and balanced lineups aren’t a bad idea for both cash games and even GPPs as well since it’s challenging to gauge who will win this week – it’s fairly wide open in my opinion. Take a look at projected ownership numbers on Wednesday, and don’t use up your full salary of $50K if you want to build unique lineups.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – Berger is the clear-cut favorite player this week – his price seems high, but it’s justified based on the weak field and his play this season. He won at Pebble Beach back in February, he has six top 10’s on the campaign, and his stats are quite solid in almost every category. I also like that he finished top 5 here four years ago, as well. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T33 and 2017 – T5.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Harman has been impressive for most of the season with just two cuts over 21 events, he has four top 10’s, and has finished in the range of T3 to 19 in his last nine tournaments played, outside of one missed cut which came at the PGA Championship. He won here seven years ago, and has five top 26’s since 2012. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T26, 2017 – T10, and 2016 – Cut.
Cam Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – What an impressive first win on the PGA Tour last week to win in an exhausting 5-hole playoff in a scorching hot and humid city of Detroit. He has three top 10’s on the campaign, several other good finishes, is 16 for 21, and should have all of the confidence in the world right now after his first victory. Keep an eye on him though, as previous week winners have the tendency to pull out of tournaments the following week or play badly at times. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T53.
The $9K Range
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Power has put together an impressive four-event stretch with finishes ranging from T8 to T19 with two top 9’s, and he has made seven cut lines in a row, to boot. He’s gaining strokes in almost every stat category during this span, except his off-the-tee game could use improvement. He also has a good history at this tournament with two top 25’s over the last four years, and his current form is in the best shape coming into this event yet. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T61, 2018 – T18, and 2017 – T25.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Henley is a tad risky but he’s capable of putting up top 10’s and top 20’s, and comes into this week with a T13 and a T19 over his last two starts. He has only played this event twice in his career but had a T27 in 2014, and was runner-up here two years ago. His price tag is high, but don’t let it turn you off from him as lots of average players are seeing their salaries inflated this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – 2nd.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – I’m always looking for solid ball-strikers, and Wise has caught my attention again this week as he has only lost strokes in this stat category twice in his last 14 starts, but that’s likely 15 starts as he finished runner-up in Mexico at Mayakoba where there’s no shot tracker data. Wise has two top 9’s in his last five starts, had a T17 at the PGA Championship, and has only missed a single cut in his last nine starts. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2018 – Cut and 2016 – T16.
The $8K Range
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Lebioda has back-to-back top 5’s, has made six straight cut lines, and outside of a T51 at the Wells Fargo Championship, his worst finish is a T31 since early May. He’s gaining lots of strokes across most stat categories, especially with his putter where he has gained at least five strokes in three of his last six starts and has only lost strokes once during that stretch. He will cool off eventually and it could be this week, but ride him while he’s hot. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Troy Merritt (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – It was a very strong performance by Merritt last week as he outlasted Joaquin Niemann in the playoff, but failed to make a putt for par on playoff hole 5 to lose to Cam Davis. Nonetheless, he still has four top 8’s in his last eight tournaments, and while I don’t like that he has been relying on his short game during this stretch, especially his putter, it’s hard to fade him until the flat stick goes cold. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T43, 2017 – T60, and 2016 – T56.
Zach Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – I’ve said it many times, I’m much more of a recent form guy than past performance, but Johnson is a rare exception for me this week in that regard. He has six top 5’s since 2011 including a win in 2012, and his worst finish since 2010 is a T37. He does have two top 32’s in his last three starts also, so it’s not like he’s been bad recently but did go through a rocky patch from early April to late May where he missed four cuts in six tournaments – I’m totally fine with using him this week though. He’s also on the tournament’s board of directors too, so you know he will always bring his A-game to this event. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T37, 2018 – T16, 2017 – T5, and 2016 – T34.
The $7K Range
Kyle Stanley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Stanley is rolling along nicely right now with six straight cuts made, seven if you count the Zurich Classic, and is gaining strokes in almost all categories except for around the green and putting, which is fine with me. His results haven’t been incredible lately, but he did have a T8 four starts ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and has finished no worse than T54 during his good stretch. He has a sound history at this tournament too with only two missed cuts since 2011, he was runner-up in 2011, and has four other top 22’s since 2012. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T18, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T55, and 2016 – T22.
Beau Hossler (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Hossler is starting to turn his season around as he has three straight top 25’s including his T10 at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. His stats have been decent as well including gaining more than 8 strokes ball-striking at the Palmetto Championship three starts ago. He doesn’t have a long storied history at this tournament, but in his only start, he finished T26 two years ago. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T26.
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Perez has been on a tidy run since his T21 at the Zurich Classic, after that team match-play event, he has four top 29’s in seven tournaments, and more recently, he has two top 14’s in his last three starts. His stats are spotty but he’s finding a way to put up good results, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again this week – plus I like that over his last 24 rounds, he has hit over 68% of his fairways which will be critical to do this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T37.
The $6K Range
Chris Baker (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Baker got my attention when he finished T26 at the U.S. Open – it was largely in part to him gaining 6.5 strokes putting, but his approach game was good, as well. He has made three cuts in a row after going through a horrible stretch, and just as long as he can make the cut again this week then the investment in him will pay off. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
Roger Sloan (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – The $6K range is very tough this week, so I would advise to avoid it as much as possible, but Sloan isn’t such a bad play as he had a top 10 here two years ago, and a T18 in 2015, as well. He is 4/5 in his last handful of starts, and was T21 last week – his best finish since November. I think he’s a good bet to make the cut this week, and has respectable upside – just don’t count on a third consecutive top 18 here. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T10.
Robert Streb (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – I was hard-pressed to come up with a third player in the scrubs range, but I came across Streb who is 4/5 recently thanks to his solid short game play. He hasn’t been good at this event in recent years, but did have a T14 in 2015, a T37 in 2014, and a T22 in 2013. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T74, and 2016 – Cut.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic
The 10K+ Range
- Bryson DeChambeau – Cut
- Patrick Reed – T32
- Hideki Matsuyama – Forced to withdraw due to testing positive for COVID-19 after round 1
The $9K Range
- Joaquin Niemann – T2
- Jason Kokrak – T12
- Matthew Wolff – T58
The $8K Range
- Gary Woodland – Cut
- Cameron Tringale – T14
- Kevin Kisner – T8
The $7K Range
- Hank Lebioda – T4
- Troy Merritt – T2
- Doc Redman – Cut
The $6K Range
- Satoshi Kodaira – Cut
- Austin Eckroat – Cut
- Henrik Norlander – T38
