PGA DFS Picks
Take in the insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Palmetto Championship, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Palmetto Championship
Recap from last week: It was heartbreaking to see Jon Rahm being forced to withdraw in round 3 when he had a six-stroke lead on the field – he tested positive for COVID-19, and it completely ruined his week to repeat as Memorial Tournament champion. Congrats though to now two-time champ of the tournament, Patrick Cantlay, who was able to take advantage of Rahm’s unfortunate forced withdrawal and win the tournament in a playoff against Collin Morikawa – it likely didn’t feel like a clean and real win to him, but it counts as one. It was a wet week with round 2 not wrapping up until Saturday morning, but luckily the weekend was better and players were able to play with no restrictions except for right at the end of the final round when the rain came down hard for a few minutes – fortunately, the players were able to stay on the course and wait it out.
Preview for the Palmetto Championship: We have a brand new event on the PGA Tour – a fill-in for the Canadian Open which is normally in this spot, but unfortunately it was cancelled for the second consecutive year due to Canada’s strict COVID-19 laws. The PGA Tour heads from Dublin, Ohio, to Gillisonville, South Carolina, for the Palmetto Championship, and features a decent-looking field, especially considering this event was just announced in April. I normally mention the history of the event in this section, who holds the tournament record, and the past five winners, but this week will be much different with nothing to draw from.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $7.8M, the winner receives $1.404M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Congaree Golf Club is lengthy at 7,655 yards long, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermuda. This course was designed by Tom Fazio, was named Golf Digest’s best new private course for 2018, was named the best golf course built between 2010 to 2019, and was recently named the 39th greatest golf course in America. I usually outline the winning score range here over the last ten years – we have nothing to go on this week, but it sounds like the track could be challenging, so we might see a winning score in the -10 to -15 range. Some of the key stats to take a look at this week are driving distance, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5s, and birdies or better gained.
The field: We will see a full-field event this week with 156 players set to tee it up – the top 65 golfers plus ties at the conclusion of round 2 will play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. There are some decent names in action this week with South Carolina-native, Dustin Johnson, playing, Brooks Koepka has committed, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, and other quality players are also go’s. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C.
Lineup construction strategy this week: With the biggest field size available on the PGA Tour this week, you will need to be focused on the cut line with likely well under half of the field playing all four rounds. There aren’t many stars in the field this week and bad scrubs, so to me, it looks like going with hybrid lineups is your best option to have a healthy combination of win equity and six legit players to make the cut. As always, take a gander at the projected ownership numbers on Wednesday, and leave some money on the table to avoid having duplicate lineups in the big GPPs.
All the best in your quest to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years (this week there are none as this is a brand new event and course for the PGA Tour), and add in some helpful pieces of information and stats, as well.
The $10K+ Range
Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – It’s a bit risky taking Koepka in a non-major event, but he is coming off a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship, he had a runner-up four starts ago at the WGC-Workday Championship, he won the Phoenix Open in February, and has two other top 7’s this season, as well. I like that he gained strokes in all stat categories at the PGA Championship including over 10 in ball-striking, tee-to-green, and total. He’s also 6th in driving distance over his last 24 rounds too, and distance is certainly a big factor this week on this behemoth of a course.
Dustin Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.4K) – Johnson sure hasn’t played the part of the top-ranked player in the world since early this year, but he’s in his home state and his distance and quality off-the-tee play makes him an intriguing option in a relatively weak field. He can turn things around in a hurry – he has two wins on the season, five top 10’s, and could cue up another hot streak starting this week. I wouldn’t make him a core lineup play, but he could fair well in your depth lineups in GPPs.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) – The good thing about Hatton is that he’s consistent and doesn’t miss many cuts – feel free to pivot to Matt Fitzpatrick if you want more upside and are fine about taking on more risk of him missing the cut as he has twice in his last three events. Hatton has two top 7’s this season in 13 starts on the PGA Tour, he won on the European Tour at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, has ten top 30’s in 15 starts between both tours, and is coming off a T38 at the PGA Championship where he played a solid game but nothing was outstanding.
The $9K Range
Ian Poulter (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Poulter only has one top 10 this season, but the good news is that it came two weeks ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished T3 thanks to sound play in all stat categories, except for off-the-tee where he lost almost a stroke to the field. He finished T30 at the PGA Championship on a long course, so he can find his way around lengthier tracks even though he isn’t a long hitter by any means. He has five top 30’s this season between the PGA Tour and European Tour, and I think he’s a decent bet to peg another one this week – just don’t expect another top 10 from the Englishman.
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – English was brilliant earlier this season and was able to win the Tournament of Champions in January, and he has five top 10’s overall. He’s starting to reclaim his good play again as he had a T21 at the Masters in April and had a T13 at the Byron Nelson last month. He has been getting by on his short game lately, his approach stats have been field average for the most part since March, and he averages almost 300 yards off-the-tee, so he has decent length.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – You know it’s a hurting field when Kizzire is in the $9K range, but he deserves it this week as he had back-to-back T3’s at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Bryon Nelson, has five top 10’s on the season, and has only missed four cuts in 21 starts. He has been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour since late March, his approach stats have been good, and he can really pop around the green from time to time.
The $8K Range
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Finding players that consistently make the cut is going to be few and far between this week, so golfers such as Noren will come in handy as he has made six straight cut lines and eight of his last nine. He’s coming off his second-best finish of the season with a T13 at the Memorial Tournament, and he has five top 25’s in his last nine tournaments played. He still doesn’t have a top 10 yet this season, but one could come this week if his hot putter keeps rolling them in.
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – Mitchell is one of the longer hitters in this field so that attribute should play into his favor this week, and his best golf of the season has come recently with a 4th at the Zurich Classic with his partner, he had a T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship a month ago, and enjoyed a T26 at the Byron Nelson mid last month. His results and stats are a bit all over the place, but he did gain over 12 strokes ball-striking at the Wells Fargo Championship, so he can get hot in that stat category once in a while.
Doc Redman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – The young North Carolina product went through a tough stretch but has made the cut in four of his last five starts and had a T9 at the Byron Nelson last month. We are still waiting for his approach and ball-striking to get more consistent, but he has gained strokes on the field in approach over his last three events, and his putter has been fairly solid over the past four.
The $7K Range
Vincent Whaley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Whaley finally has a price tag that’s not in the $6K range – it’s about time as he has nine straight cuts made and has finished T15 to T36 in eight straight tournaments played. His stats aren’t super sexy by any means, but in his last event, he gained over 5 strokes ball-striking, over 2 with his putter, and over 2 tee-to-green. I don’t think you will want to dip into the $6K range too much this week as it’s pretty ugly, so Whaley is a good mid-tier option for hybrid and balanced lineups.
Martin Laird (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Laird won the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open back in October, has only missed one cut in his last eight tournaments, and finished T23 at the PGA Championship by gaining almost 12 strokes ball-striking and over 8.5 strokes tee-to-green. He only has one top 10 this season with that win I previously mentioned, so his upside isn’t too spectacular, but he’s a viable option to finish top 20 or 30.
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Perez is on a decent little roll with four straight made cuts finishing anywhere from T26 to T45, and he has only missed the cut once in his last eight tournaments played. His stats are fairly average, but he’s best around the greens and that’s always useful no matter what course is on the schedule.
The $6K Range
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – The $6K range is extremely weak this week, so tread lightly with stars and scrubs aspirations – you’ve been warned. Lebioda appears to have the best upside for the week in this range as he has two top 17’s in his last three events, and has made three straight cut lines which sounds sad but compared to a lot of his competition in this range, it’s actually quite good. He gained in all of the major stat categories in his most recent start at the Byron Nelson, except for off-the-tee, but over 4 strokes gained in approach is nice to see, additionally, he gained more than 8 strokes in approach two starts ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, so his approach game is strong right now and that’s a big key to success on the PGA Tour.
Sung Kang (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Kang has played in three straight weekends and his best one came last week at the Memorial Tournament where he finished T32 and gained in all major stat categories except for putting. I have no idea if he can make four cut lines in a row, but at least the possibility is there if he can repeat what he did last week in Dublin, Ohio.
Michael Gligic (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Prior to missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge in his most recent start, Gligic had made four cuts in a row including the team match-play tournament, and he did have a T4 in Puntacana in March where he gained over 11.5 strokes total.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s Memorial Tournament
The 10K+ Range
- Jordan Spieth – T18
- Collin Morikawa – 2nd
- Jon Rahm – Forced to withdraw in round 3 when leading by 6 strokes due to testing positive for COVID-19
The $9K Range
- Viktor Hovland – T47
- Corey Conners – T53
- Patrick Cantlay – Won the tournament
The $8K Range
- Matt Fitzpatrick – Cut
- Keegan Bradley – Cut
- Louis Oosthuizen – T18
The $7K Range
- Patton Kizzire – Cut
- Gary Woodland – Cut
- Kevin Streelman – T13
The $6K Range
- Troy Merritt – T50
- Kyle Stanley – T42
- Alex Noren – T13
