DFS Golf Picks
Sony Open in Hawaii
Pull down information from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 Sony Open in Hawaii, and take a look at FantasyData’s PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your daily fantasy lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last week: What a finish last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with Harris English winning on the first playoff hole against Joaquin Niemann – big congrats to him for his first PGA Tour victory in over 7 long years! It was a beautiful tournament from start to finish and with tons of eagles and birdies to enjoy, it was fun to see the players absolutely destroy the course with 9 players shooting at least -20, whoa!
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $6.6M, the winner receives $1.188M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: This event has always featured the same course at the Waialae Country Club – the track is a par 70, is 7,044 yards, and the greens consist of bermudagrass. The course isn’t overly difficult unless the wind picks up (like it did last year when Cameron Smith won with a score of -11 which was tied for the highest in the last 21 years) – the winning score over the past 10 years averages -19. Some of the key stats to examine this week are Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Par 4s, and Scrambling Gained.
The field: We are back to full fields again – this week features 144 golfers where the top 65 plus ties at the conclusion of round 2 on Friday will make the cut and get to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. Some of the notable players in the field this week include Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson, last week’s winner Harris English and runner-up Joaquin Niemann, plus other high-caliber players. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C+ with 20 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world on tap to play and there are some decent depth players in the field as well.
Notable storylines: Charles Howell III didn’t make my list this week but has been stellar at this event with ten top 10’s in 19 starts. Cameron Smith looks to become the first back to back winner at this tournament since Jimmy Walker did it in 2014 and 2015, and just four times has this happened in the long, rich history of the Sony Open. Collin Morikawa has family that resides in Hawaii and has been to the state many times as a result – this makes me like him, even more, this week.
Betting strategy this week: For those of us who like cuts in tournaments, it’s great to have a larger field to build lineups with this week, and the strategy going from last week’s 42 player field (with no cut line) to more than 100 additional players this week will need to reflect that. I tend to like having three or four legit players who can win any given tournament in my core lineups, and value plays that consist of players who regularly make cuts who also present some decent upside. I’ll be mostly going with stars and scrubs/balanced hybrids this week, and will be very focused on getting as many 6 player lineups as possible into the weekend. Last week saw around 46% of lineups being duplicates in GPPs due to the small field, this week though should be easier to build unique configurations but you still may want to leave a few hundred dollars on the table for each to increase the likelihood of that happening, plus looking at ownership projections is helpful too.
All the best for earning some contest wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK and FanDuel as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K, FanDuel – $12.0K) – Simpson hasn’t had a better finish than T10 over the past five events but I think he’s due for a big week. Webb is perhaps the best player on the PGA Tour outside of the tee blocks and as a result his game is well suited to short, tight courses like the one we will see this week. Simpson has a superb record at this event and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue this week. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – 3rd, 2018 – T4, 2017 – T13, and 2016 – T13.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K, FanDuel – $11.8K) – Morikawa hasn’t quite looked like the stud he was since winning the PGA Championship last August, but you could tell by watching him last week that he’s getting back to his elite form, and had he not shot a 73 in round 4 on Sunday he would have been right in the mix to win. He won twice last season and it wouldn’t be surprising to me if he won a couple of times this year as well – this week could be his first in that department. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T21.
Joaquin Niemann (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K, FanDuel – $10.9K) – Niemann is coming off the runner-up finish last week and has been playing some excellent, consistent golf all season long with seven top 23’s in 8 starts, finishing no worse than T44 over that span, and he has two top 6’s at elite events. He already has a win on the PGA Tour and something tells me that we will see more from him based on his immense talent. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T57.
The $9K Range
Cameron Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K, FanDuel – $10.7K) – Smith was scorching before coming down to earth a bit last week with a T24, but prior he had a runner-up at the Masters, was T4 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and secured 11th at The CJ Cup. He’s the defending champion of this event and I think that he was saving his best for this week in his 2nd title defense in his PGA Tour career. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 – T22, 2018 – T18, 2017 – T27, and 2016 – T81.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K, FanDuel – $10.5K) – The four-time winner on the PGA Tour sure looked solid last week and ended up T4 when all was said and done – that’s back to back T4’s for Palmer plus he was T4 at this event last year too. Three starts ago he was T17 at The CJ Cup which featured a high-caliber field and he’s just so reliable to produce consistent results every time he tees it up – 11 top 25’s last season in 19 starts helps to back up my claim. This is the highest pricing we have seen on him in quite a while but I feel like he’s deserving of it based on his recent results and reliability. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T4, 2018 – T58, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T13.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K, FanDuel – $10.8K) – Ancer isn’t dominating tournaments right now but he has been steady throughout this season with three straight top 17’s including a T13 at the Masters, he was solo 4th at the Shriners back in October, and hasn’t missed a cut in 8 starts. I believe that his well-rounded game fits well on this track, and think he will see his best finish yet at this event come Sunday. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T38, 2019 – T29, and 2018 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K, FanDuel – $10.4K) – Henley was a player that I was riding hard this season and the ball-striker hasn’t disappointed as he has a T3, a T4, and three other top 30’s over four starts. He did miss his most recent cut early last month, but I expect him to bounce back nicely this week despite his mostly rocky finishes at this event outside of his win here almost a decade ago. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – 66th, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T13, and 2016 – cut.
Sergio Garcia (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K, FanDuel – $10.0K) – Garcia was way off of my radar until he won at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October, and since then he has a T21 and was T11 last week. He likely won’t finish top 5 this week but I think you can count on a top 25 with some upside. He hasn’t traditionally played this tournament, but at least he’s acclimated to Hawaii now and is coming in with some level of momentum.
Brendon Todd (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – If staying on the fairway is important this week, and it is, then sign me up for Todd who’s the second-best player on the PGA Tour in that stat category. Todd has come on over his past two starts with a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and he was T13 last week. Combine that with the fact that he won twice last season and he’s currently 4th in strokes gained putting this season which doesn’t hurt either. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T21 and 2016 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K, FanDuel – $9.8K) – Grillo isn’t typically a threat to win on any given week but he’s coming off a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and has six other top 35’s in seven starts this season. He’s a good, safe player to play in cash games and can pop for a top 10 on occasion too which makes him a good GPP consideration. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T21, 2019 – T22, 2018 – T47, and 2016 – T33.
Sebastian Munoz (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K, FanDuel – $9.7K) – I’ve really enjoyed the services of Munoz over the past few months as he has played well at all sorts of tournaments including ones that feature elite fields. He had a T17 last week and has five other top 27’s this season in 9 tournaments played. Had he not started off with a 75 last week, his finish could have easily been in the top 10 as his final three rounds went 66-67-68. Nothing about his stats stands out but he is fairly accurate off the tee and is 33rd in birdie average which is what you want to see this week with lots of birdies available from round to round. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T10.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K, FanDuel – $9.3K) – Kizzire won here three years ago and he has played quite well this season for the most part with a T10 and a T11 over his past three starts and six straight cuts made. He’s 29th in eagle average, 34th in birdie average, and 39th in scoring average this season at 70.25. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T13, 2018 – Won, and 2016 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Doug Ghim (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.4K) – Ghim is 6 for 7 so far this season and has four top 23’s to his name already in this fairly young campaign. He ranks 12th in approach, 40th around the green, 20th tee-to-green, 26th strokes gained total, 11th in birdie average, and is 27th in scoring average. The 24-year-old is starting to find his way on the PGA Tour and I expect to consistently play him in my lineups – especially when he’s sub $7K. He’s really the only $6K player on DK that I actually like this week, the rest I will play sparingly. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut.
Robert Streb (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K, FanDuel – $7.9K) – Streb won two starts ago at The RSM Classic and did have a T21 at the Corales Puntacana, but other than that he hasn’t done too much – even on the Korn Ferry Tour. Like I said above in Ghim’s write up, I’m not too bullish on the $6K range this week, so if you can stick to $7K and above (aside from Ghim) then go for it. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T49.
Peter Malnati (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K, FanDuel – $8.4K) – Malnati did have a good stretch of golf before his previous tournament’s cut where he went T41, runner-up, T5, T21, and T48. He is putting outstanding this season, is 11th in strokes gained total, and 20th in birdie average, so he does have some decent stats to back his game up. Sony Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T12, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T27, and 2016 – T79.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions
The $10K+ Range
- Justin Thomas – 3rd
- Dustin Johnson – T11
- Xander Schauffele – T5
The $9K Range
- Patrick Reed – T21
- Patrick Cantlay – T13
- Webb Simpson – T17
The $8K Range
- Cameron Smith – T24
- Joaquin Niemann – 2nd
- Abraham Ancer – T17
The $7K Range
- Ryan Palmer – 4th
- Cameron Champ – T31
- Carlos Ortiz – 37th
The $6K Range
- Lanto Griffin – T13
- MacKenzie Hughes – T41
- Robert Streb – T38
