DFS Golf Picks
Lock in the data, predictions and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for The American Express, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The American Express
Recap from the Sony Open in Hawaii: It was looking as though Russell Henley was poised to win last week, but Hideki Matsuyama made a nice comeback in round 4 on Sunday to tie Henley and then defeated him in a playoff. Congrats to Matsuyama on his 8th PGA Tour win, and his third victory since last season’s Masters win in April!
Preview for The American Express: This event dates back to 1960 when some guy named Arnold Palmer won the first edition then named the Palm Springs Desert Golf Classic, shooting a -20 to beat Fred Hawkins by three strokes and earn $12K for his efforts. This tournament has always been played on three courses aside from last year’s two-course setup thanks to the pandemic, and this will be the third straight year that American Express has been the title sponsor. Scores are typically low here, the record with the event held on these three same courses is -26 and it’s held by Andrew Landry in 2020 and Adam Long in 2019. We have a full field of players in action this week which is nice since it has been a while since we have seen a maxed-out field like this. Winners of The American Express/Desert Classic, CareerBuilder Challenge over the past five years include Si Woo Kim in 2021, Andrew Landry in 2020, Adam Long in 2019, Jon Rahm in 2018, and Hudson Swafford in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $7.6M, the winner collects $1.368M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: PGA West – Stadium Course is 7,113 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass. PGA West – Nicklaus Tournament Course is 7,204 yards in length, is also a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass, and La Quinta Country Club is 7,060 yards, is a par 72, and the greens are also Bermudagrass. The winning score range here since 2016 is -20 to -26, and I think we can expect a score of something similar in this range this week, so count on lots of eagles and birdies to land with regularity. Some core key stats to focus on this week include driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: tee to green, driving distance, and strokes gained: around the green. Note that the stats this week aren’t super polarizing though, with just driving accuracy percentage being a bit above average in terms of importance compared to the average PGA Tour course, so custom models will be all over the place this week.
The field: We have 156 players competing this week in Southern California, and there will be a cut line to manage after round 3 on Saturday with the top 65 plus ties advancing to Sunday’s round 4. A few big names are in action this week including Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson who’s also the tournament host, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, and other talented golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about The American Express this week:
1. Can Rahm win for the second time since 2018? The world’s top-ranked player is in action this week and Rahm won here back in 2018 with a score of -22 and beat Andrew Landry in a playoff. He’s poised to win this week and he’s motivated to do so since Collin Morikawa is breathing down his neck for the #1 ranking.
2. Will the weather matter? If you’re like me and always trying to figure out which wave of players you want every week between Thursday and Friday, you don’t have to worry too much this week as winds will be minimal each day along with the amount of sun exposure and temperatures, plus there are three courses spread out over three days, so your players are guaranteed to play 54 holes each barring withdraws.
3. Use a big player group for DFS lineups? We have the largest field you can get on the PGA Tour with 156 players a go for this week, so it’s naturally tempting to want to use a lot of players in your DFS lineups. Don’t get sucked in by the big number available and keep your total player pool to a reasonable number, otherwise, your spreading yourself too thin – take a stand on core players and roll with them heavily.
Lineup construction strategy this week: I’ll be taking a hybrid lineup building approach this week, but I’ll be a bit more cautious than I have been lately with the large field and possibly only 42% of players making it through to play all four rounds. Let’s call it a hybrid-balanced mindset I have this week, so my high-end core will likely be starting in the $9K range. Look at projected ownership for players on Wednesday, and leave a few hundred on the table for lineups if you’re competing in big GPPs to be as unique as possible.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.3K) – He has only competed here three times in his career, but has two top 6’s including winning four years ago thanks to solid ball-striking where he gained 5.93 strokes. Rahm has been incredible since last June with a win, two runner-ups, two 3rd’s, and a T9 in his last seven starts, and his stats are superb across the board. Be sure to build some stars and scrub lineups this week, and look to Rahm to captain some of them. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2019 – 6th, 2018 – Won, and 2017 – T34.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) – The native Californian has played this tournament two times in his career and has been inside the top 10 both times including his runner-up showing last year where he gained 15.13 strokes total. He has been lights out over his last three starts with two wins and a 4th, and he has no weakness in his game. He won four times last season and should be another multiple winner again this season. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 2nd and 2019 – T9.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – We saw a bunch of first-time winners on the PGA Tour last season and we are bound to see more this season too – one new champ will be likely Scheffler. He has three top 4’s in his last four starts including a solo 2nd last month at the Hero World Challenge where he gained 6.90 strokes total. He had a top 5 here two years ago, and I think he will snag another one this year and could finally breakthrough for his first win if he can somehow better Rahm, Cantlay, and the other 153 players in the field. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2020 – T3.
The $9K Range
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Power just keeps performing at a high level and kept his momentum going last week where he was T3 in Hawaii thanks to gaining strokes across the board except for a tiny 0.14 loss on approach. He seems to finish regularly in the top 20, has two top 4’s in his last three starts, and is balanced throughout his bag. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T21.
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – He earned his first PGA Tour victory last November at The RSM Classic where Gooch’s approach play and putting were so solid, and he just keeps gaining in ball-striking and with his short game. He has three top 5’s in his last eight starts and another three more top 15’s during that span. He’s gaining strokes across all major stat categories almost every week, and I don’t see that stopping any time soon – at least not this week. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T21, 2020 – T17, 2019 – T4, and 2018 – T67.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – I was off of him last week and he did miss the cut, but only because his usual strong putter lost 2.50 strokes. Ancer has been spectacular at this tournament over the last two years including his runner-up finish two years ago, and I think the pride of Mexico will shine again this week. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T5, 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T18, and 2018 – 76th.
The $8K Range
Si Woo Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – I really don’t like the $8K much at all this week and I’ll likely have very few players from it in my lineups. Kim interests me though since he won here last year, and I think the cobwebs are out of his game after two starts already this year – he finished T55 last week but lost 3.56 strokes on the greens. He had two top 11’s last Fall and I think he’s nearing a return to that type of result again soon, potentially as early as this week. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won, 2020 – Withdraw, and 2019 – T40.
Justin Rose (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – I’m ready to give Rose another look again since he has three top 12’s in his last five starts including a T9 at the Hero World Challenge last month in a super-elite field. He’s not dominating in any one stat category, but has been balanced throughout his bag and gained strokes across the board two starts ago at The RSM Classic. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T34.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – I was really riding Vegas a lot last season and I’m ready to jump back on him again starting this week since he is a super ball-striker and when his putter is flowing well, he typically finishes inside the top 15. He consistently plays weekend golf at this event and was just outside the top 10 four years ago. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T55, 2019 – T69, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T34.
The $7K Range
Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – I wasn’t sure what to expect out of Knox last week, but he was strong across the board including gaining 5.10 strokes on approach and 2.34 with his short game en route to a T7. He has been very good at this tournament including posting a T16 a year ago where his only weakness was on the greens losing just under a stroke to the field. I like Knox as a mid-tier value play this week, and believe he’s very serviceable for hybrid and balanced lineup builds. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T16, 2020 – T37, 2019 – T18, and 2018 – T29.
Andrew Landry (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Landry is a very high-risk, high-reward player this week as he has a win and a runner-up over the past four years here, and has two top 7’s over his last five starts with three missed cuts mixed in there. If you want a home run type of player this week, look no further than Landry – worst case he should at least make the cut, so the upside I believe is worth the moderate downside risk. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T64, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T28, and 2018 – 2nd.
Michael Thompson (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Thompson is an interesting case study this week as he has two top 10’s here since 2019 including his T5 last year, and he also had a T5 last week in Hawaii where he gained 6.52 strokes on approach and 5.33 with his short game. He has made six straight cut lines, seems like a good bet to extend that to seven this week, and could have his third top 10 here in the last four years. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T5, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T9, and 2017 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Henrik Norlander (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – The $6K range isn’t as strong as I was thinking it would be, but there are a few golfers who are worth looking at starting with Norlander. The Swede consistently plays all four rounds in tournaments, he had a 4th at the Sanderson Farms Championship seven starts ago, and he secured a T12 here last year thanks to strong approach play and putting. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T12, 2020 – T68, and 2017 – T50.
Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – NeSmith is starting to get his game back on the right side of the ledger as he is 4/5 since last October and two of those finishes are top 29’s including a T14 at the Shriners Children’s Open. It’s hard to say what type of game we will see out of him this week since he hasn’t played professionally since November, but he was T17 here two years ago, so if he can do anything close to that, then he’s worth every penny. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2020 – T17.
Tyler McCumber (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – When I get deeper into the $6K range, I’m looking for players who can pop. McCumber had a T4 at The RSM Classic in his most recent start last Fall, and his ball-striking and putting were outstanding gaining 6.80 strokes and 5.06, respectively. He’s trending in the right direction at this event, and if the progression continues then he could be in line to finish top 30 this week. The American Express/Desert Classic/CareerBuilder Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T40 and 2020 – T64.
