DFS Golf Picks
Harness the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Recap from the Farmers Insurance Open: Luke List stormed up the leaderboard in round 4 last Saturday with a -6 to earn a playoff against Will Zalatoris and he defeated him on the first hole with a birdie to earn his first PGA Tour win – huge congrats to him and his family! He was a core player on my main DFS lineups last week, and I thank him for his services!
Preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: This event dates back to 1937 when Sam Snead won both the first edition and the second one as well when it was named the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am. This event typically features a three-course setup, last year only used two because of the pandemic, but we are back to three again this year on Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and the Monterey Peninsula Country Club. There will be a cut line to dodge after the conclusion of round 3 on Saturday where the top 60 players plus ties move onto play round 4 on Sunday. Players navigate each of the courses from Thursday to Saturday, and Pebble Beach is used for the final round to declare the final positions. The record at this tournament came in 2015 when Brandt Snedeker fired a -22 to top Nick Watney by three strokes. Winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am over the last five years include Daniel Berger in 2021, Nick Taylor in 2020, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter Jr. in 2018, and Jordan Spieth in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is set at $8.7M, the winner collects $1.566M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Pebble Beach is 6,972 yards in length and is a par 72, Spyglass Hill is 7,041 yards in length and is also a par 72, and Monterey Peninsula is 6,957 yards and is a par 71, and all three courses feature poa annua greens. The winning score here over the past decade is -11 to -22 – wind is often a factor at this event, and it usually impacts the winning score one way or another. Some core key stats to put into your custom models this week, in order, include driving distance, strokes gained: putting, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: tee to green.
The field: We again have a full field of 156 players in action this week, and there are also 156 amateurs that will play alongside the pros including Buffalo Bills QB, Josh Allen, MLB player, Mookie Betts, and actor Bill Murray is a mainstay here and will be teeing it up once again this year. The top 60 pro players plus ties after round 3 will move on to play round 4 on Sunday. We will see a decent amount of talent including the defending champ, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, and other talented golfers, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C.
Three questions I have about the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week:
1. Will Daniel Berger repeat? We haven’t seen a repeat winner at this tournament since 2010 when Dustin Johnson went back to back, but Berger has the talent to pull it off and he’s in fine form right now too.
2. Will we see a playoff? This event seems to get decided after hole 72 quite often, and in fact, we haven’t seen a playoff since 2008 when Steve Lowery beat Vijay Singh. So we likely won’t see the winner capture the victory in a playoff, but there’s always that outside chance, especially since there are 156 golfers competing.
3. Will wind factor in? As of right now, it looks as though the wind should be fairly minimal this week, so don’t worry about which golfers are playing which course on which day since it will be fairly even for everyone throughout the week.
Lineup construction strategy this week: With another full field to select from, you got to be mindful of the cut after 54 holes, but you can also take on more risk than usual since your players are guaranteed to play 3 rounds barring a withdrawal. I’ll be going with a hybrid approach as I do quite often from week to week, but I’ll pull a bit more than usual from the top and will have a scrub or two on my core lineups. Look at projected ownership numbers on Wednesday and pivot where it makes sense to do so, and leave a few hundred dollars on the table, especially in the larger GPPs if you’re after unique configurations and aim to win outright.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – With four wins last year including two wins in his last four starts, Cantlay holds the most recent win equity of any golfer in this field by a long shot, and he has finished no worse than T11 over his last five starts, so he’s such a stud and will be highly owned once again this week. He plays a complete game and has gained strokes ball-striking in twelve straight events that featured shot tracking technology. His finishes keep getting better and better every time he plays here, and it would surprise absolutely nobody if he wins this week. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T3, 2020 – T11, 2018 – T35, and 2017 – T48.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – He came so close to winning last week’s Farmers Insurance Open thanks to gaining an insane 7.91 strokes on approach, but he ultimately lost to Luke List in a playoff. He just keeps pressing on the gas peddle to win his first PGA Tour event, and it’s coming this year, I’m confident in that prediction. He has back-to-back top 6’s, and has five top 14’s in his last nine starts. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T55 and 2018 – T68.
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – Berger has a superb track record at this tournament with a win, a T5, and a T10 since 2015 and has gained strokes across the board every time except for a loss of 1.56 strokes around the green in 2015 – so he has all three of these courses completely figured out it seems like. He strides into this week with three straight top 20’s and has 7 top 9’s since his victory here a year ago. Everything in his game is solid right now except for his putting, but he did gain 2.76 strokes on the greens last week, so if the flat stick is at least lukewarm this week he will easily add another top 10 finish – his fourth in a row at Pebble Beach. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won and 2020 – T5.
The $9K Range
Jason Day (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Day absolutely loves him some Pebble Beach golf with eight top 11’s since 2013! We haven’t seen his price tag this high in quite some time on DK, but it’s well deserved as he is lights out at this event and is coming off a T3 last week where he gained strokes across the board. He seems to go through hot and cold spells, and it looks like another hot one is emerging – pay up for the Aussie this week. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T7, 2020 – T4, 2019 – T4, 2018 – T2, and 2017 – T5.
Kevin Streelman (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Here’s another player who plays sensational at this event as he has six straight top 17’s, three of those are top 7’s including his 2nd two years ago where he gained 6.58 strokes ball-striking and 3.64 putting. Streelman hasn’t put up a top ten since his T7 at the Wyndham Championship in August, but he has only missed two cuts in his last twelve starts, and he had a T39 last week thanks to strong ball-striking and wedge play. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13, 2020 – 2nd, 2019 – T7, 2018 – T6, and 2017 – T14.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – He just keeps putting up top 30’s with thirteen of them in his last sixteen starts including a 2nd at the Fortinet Championship last September. McNealy missed the cut in his first look at Pebble Beach in 2018 but has two top 5’s over the last two years including a runner-up finish last year where he was so solid in every stat category. The only knock against him is his high salary number, but it’s a fairly weak field and he has been good lately and great at this tournament, so it’s warranted. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 2nd, 2020 – T5, and 2018 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – Lanto’s engine is running on high gear right now with three top 7’s in his last six starts including a T3 two starts ago at The American Express where he gained 12.95 strokes total. I also like that he finished top 10 here two years ago, and could be positioned for another one this year if his strong approach game and putting continue. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T9 and 2018 – Cut.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – He is on a strong stretch of play with four top 15’s in his last five starts including a T6 in his most recent start at The American Express where McCarthy’s hot putter was on full display gaining 5.36 strokes. He’s only an average to below-average ball-striker, but his short game is usually spot on, and he’s consistently one of the best putters on the planet. He only has a missed cut and a T66 so far at Pebble Beach, but I can see him putting up a top 20 finish this week since his game is right where he wants it to be. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut.
Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – I really like the look of Pereira’s game since he’s ridiculously talented off the tee and on approach, and his putter was cold but over his past three starts he has gained over 12 strokes combined including 5.48 at The RSM Classic. He won in back-to-back starts on the Korn Ferry Tour last June, and I won’t be surprised at all when he wins for the first time on the PGA Tour. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: None.
The $7K Range
Nick Taylor (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Taylor won here just two years ago and has been consistently good at Pebble Beach over the years with two top 10’s since 2017 and he has finished top 39 in five of the last six years. The Canadian also has four straight top 41 finishes and he’s doing it by gaining strokes across the board, so his results are quite sustainable if he sticks to his balanced game plan. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T39, 2020 – Won, 2019 – T28, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T10.
Aaron Rai (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Here’s a player who is such a strong ball-striking talent, and Rai’s short game was lacking but it all came together last week where he gained 3.96 strokes and finished T6. He has four top 19’s in his last six starts, and I think that will continue this week, especially if he gets it done again with his wedges and putter. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: None.
Michael Thompson (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Thompson is having an excellent 2022 so far with two top 11’s including a T5 three starts ago where he gained 6.52 on approach and 5.33 on his short game. His record at this event is spotty, but he did have a top 10 three years ago, so he has the potential and experience to finish high. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T34, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T10, and 2017 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Kevin Chappell (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – It’s a tough $6K range this week, but Chappell has made three cut lines in a row and has a decent track record at Pebble Beach since 2017 with three top 48’s including a T8 four years ago where he was great in every major stat category. He also had a T6 here in 2009, so he knows how to play these three courses and can perform at a high level. I would recommend having no more than one $6K player per lineup, and Chappell is worth including in at least one of them. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T25, 2018 – T8, and 2017 – T48.
Adam Svensson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – He has played three weekends in a row including earning a T7 at the Sony Open three weeks ago where he gained 6.13 strokes on approach and 4.22 with his short game. His stats were horrible last week, but I expect Svensson to bounce back this week, at least on approach and that aspect of the game is vital to most golfers. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Satoshi Kodaira (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Kodaira is 4/5 over his last five starts between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour including a T12 in his most recent start at the Sony Open where he gained strokes across the board including 4.00 on approach and 6.68 total. He has two straight missed cuts here at this event, but his stats look half decent as he is gaining in most stat categories, and I believe he will make the cut this week – just don’t quote me on it. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2020 – Cut.
