Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Take advantage of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the BMW Championship, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The BMW Championship
Recap from last week’s THE NORTHERN TRUST: We usually have four days of competition for any given PGA Tour tournament, but last week saw it span over five days due to Sunday’s round 4 being canceled due to tropical storm Henri. When the storm settled, it was Tony Finau prevailing over Cameron Smith in a one-hole playoff to win his first legit PGA Tour event in his career, a HUGE CONGRATS TO TONY!
Preview for the BMW Championship: This week marks the second leg of the PGA Tour Playoffs with the top 70 players in the standings making their way from New Jersey to Maryland for the BMW Championship. This event has been around since 2007 when the playoff format was first introduced – it was formerly known as the Western Open – Tiger Woods won the first year in 2007 and won again in 2009 for his fifth win of this event, two wins at the BMW Championship and three wins at the Western Open. Cog Hill Golf & Country Club hosted this event for four of the first five years, but since then we have seen seven different courses play host, and this year we get another brand new one at the Caves Valley Golf Course in Owings Mills, Maryland. Winners at the BMW Championship over the past five years include Jon Rahm in 2020, Justin Thomas in 2019, Keegan Bradley in 2018, Marc Leishman in 2017, and Dustin Johnson in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $9.5M, the winner receives $1.71M and also earns himself a massive 2,000 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Caves Valley Golf Course is 7,542 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at the BMW Championship over the past decade ranges from -4 to -25, so it varies widely depending on which course is used. Justin Thomas has the best score at the BMW Championship with a -25 which came just two years ago in 2019 at the Medinah Country Club in Illinois. The PGA Tour has never played on this course before, so it’s hard to say what the winning score will be, but we should get more information about this track as the week goes on – looks like a birdie fest again this week though unless the rough is nasty. Some of the key stats to include in your custom models this week are strokes gained: approach, sand saves, proximity 200+ yards, and par 4s gained: 450-500 yards.
The field: The field remains very strong this week with the top 69 players (no Patrick Reed for an even 70 but Louis Oosthuizen returns to action) in the FedExCup standings in action this week, and there is of course no cut to worry about – THANK GOODNESS after last week’s s*** show. There are superstars and stars throughout the field, and it’s like a WGC type of event with regards to the talent we will see this week, and the field size echos that, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Three questions I have about the BMW Championship this week:
1. Will player ownership be affected by the surprising cuts last week? It was rather surprising when Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Jhonattan Vegas, and other players who normally play weekend golf failed to make the cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST in a small field. I’m wondering if players who played poorly last week will see their ownership drop a bit, or if it won’t be affected at all since there’s no cut line this week – we will see.
2. Will there be a ton of lineup duplication this week? We will only see a maximum of 69 players this week and with that comes the challenge of building lineups that are unique. In these smaller events, I tend to pay closer attention to projected ownership numbers and leave extra money on the table to try and boast original lineups. We have seen lineups that have been duplicated hundreds of times in the past, and it could very well happen again this week – if you want to win the big GPPs, then go contrarian as much as possible.
3. Will Rahm be 30%+ owned this week? Rahm has been lights out this season and is typically around 20% owned each tournament, but in a smaller field this week and with questions about his health and game no longer in question, I wonder if we will see the top-ranked player in the world be ridiculously owned this week. Pay close attention to his ownership projection number this week, and if he’s too highly owned for your liking then consider pivoting off of him.
Lineup construction strategy this week: Since there is no cut to obsess over this week and with the small field on tap, you can get really aggressive with your lineup builds this week. I’ll be going with stars and scrubs lineups mostly, but will also mix in some hybrid configurations too. Keep in mind that one of the best players in the field will likely win this week, so the more win equity you can pull from the top, the better. Plus, the scrubs this week aren’t too bad either, so you can rely on depth to effectively round out your six-man lineups. Pay close attention to projected ownership numbers on Wednesday, look for excellent pivot plays off the players who are 25%+ owned, and leave at least $500 on the table if you want a decent chance at having unique lineups in the big GPP contests.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.7K) – If there were any questions about Rahm potentially being rusty last week, he quickly put any concerns to rest thanks to his opening round of 63 and he went on to finish 3rd even though he had the lead late on Monday afternoon. In his past four events, he has a win at the U.S. Open, a T7 at the Scottish Open, a T3 at the Open Championship, and again, had a 3rd last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. He has 12 top 10’s this season and should add a 13th this week. His stats are godly and it was huge that he gained 12.59 strokes in ball-striking last week in an elite field. There’s a pretty decent chance that Rahm defends his title from a year ago and wins for “just” the second time this season. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Won, 2019 – T5, 2018 – T24, and 2017 – T5
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – Everything looked great out of Thomas last week except for his around the green play where he lost 2.65 strokes, but he gained almost 8 strokes ball-striking and almost 10 strokes total to finish T4. I have been off of Thomas for a while now, but I’m getting back on the JT train again since he seems focused to do well in the playoffs and should be considered a big threat to secure another top 5 this week. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T25, 2019 – Won, 2018 – T12, 2017 – T47, and 2016 – T32.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) – It was earlier this month when Schauffele won at the Olympics where he gained strokes in all of the major stat categories including over 4 strokes with his approach game. He had another well-rounded game last week to finish T16 and I think he’s well-positioned to have a top 10 this week if he can gain another 5 strokes in approach. Almost half of his events have gone for top 10’s this season and he’s one of the more consistent players on the PGA Tour. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T25, 2019 – T19, 2018 – T3, and 2017 – T20.
The $9K Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – What a win by Finau last week – it sort of came from nowhere as he had been bleeding strokes in approach leading up to THE NORTHERN TRUST, but he came through big-time last week gaining over 5 strokes in that stat category and he gained in all major stat categories, as well. Tony tends to be a streaky player but when he’s hot he’s hot, so I’m going to be a bit overweight on him this week and hope that his strong play continues for at least one more week. He has nine top 10’s in 24 events this season, and I really like how he keeps his bogey damage to a minimum, especially in birdie fests where bogeys really hurt the scores. He has been outstanding at this tournament over the past four years too with finishes ranging from T4 to T8. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T5, 2019 – T4, 2018 – T8, 2017 – T7, 2016 – T66.
Cameron Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Smith is on one of his heaters right now starting at the Olympics where he finished T10, then had a T5 at the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational earlier this month, and had he not hit his tee shot out of bounds last week in the playoff, he could have potentially beaten Finau. We are looking for birdie makers this week and over Smith’s past five events he has had anywhere from 18 to 26 of them – the 26 came last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T20, 2018 – T65, and 2017 – T12.
Patrick Cantlay (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Cantlay has two wins on the season including his most recent one at the Memorial Tournament in June, and while he doesn’t have a top 10 in his past five starts since then, he does have four top 23’s and three top 15’s including his T11 last week. This is a new course this week, but we typically see new ones at this event and Cantlay has a runner-up, a T9, and a T12 since 2017. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T12, 2019 – 2nd, 2018 – T55, and 2017 – T9.
The $8K Range
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Conners is one of the best ball-strikers in the world and he was at it again last week where he gained over 11 strokes in the key stat category – he lost over 3 strokes in his short game but still managed to finish T8. He now has three top 15’s in his last four starts including a T15 at the Open Championship, he has eight top 10’s on the campaign, and if his hot driver and long irons are solid again this week, he should add another top 10. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T33 and 2019 – T7.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – He’s normally a pretty decent short game player but he lost over 10 strokes to the field last week in that category, and despite gaining almost 9 strokes in ball-striking, it wasn’t enough to have a good week as he finished T64. That was perhaps his worst short game performance of his career though, and I expect him to bounce back from that misstep and have a superb finish this week. Prior to THE NORTHERN TRUST, he had back-to-back top 5’s, four top 7’s in six starts, and his worst finish in seven straight starts was a T36. Others might shy away from the Englishman a bit this week, but you shouldn’t, plus he’s $500 cheaper than last week, so take advantage. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T16, 2019 – T24, 2018 – Withdraw, 2017 – T33, and 2016 – 2nd.
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – He won the Travelers Championship in late June, and had three top 4’s in four starts before last week’s T31. His approach game costed him last week but he had gained strokes in the category in at least five consecutive events leading up to THE NORTHERN TRUST, potentially six straight but we don’t have shot link data from The Open Championship to confirm that. He has two wins this season, eight top 10’s, and lots of other solid finishes – he’s an excellent player overall and is well priced. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T40 and 2016 – T47.
The $7K Range
Shane Lowry (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Show me a player who consistently finishes well and I’ll bet you that his approach game is a big reason why – Lowry has gained strokes in this important stat category in twelve straight events but it’s likely thirteen since he finished T12 at The Open Championship and we have no shot link data to pull from. He has six top 12’s in his last thirteen starts and another three more top 23’s during that span – expect another top 10 or top 25 this week, especially if he can straighten out his dreadful off the tee game. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T48.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Henley was on a nice little roll before last week’s T56 as he had four top 19’s in five starts including a T7 at the Wyndham Championship and a T13 at the U.S. Open. His putter failed him miserably last week as he lost over 6 strokes to the field, but that isn’t typical of him and he should bounce back this week to lock up a top 20 finish. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T25 and 2017 – T47.
Kevin Na (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – He’s sizzling right now with two co-runner-ups in his last four starts, he had a T8 last week thanks to outstanding around the green play where he gained over 8 strokes, and the worst finish in his last four starts is a T23. He relies too much on his wedges and putter for my liking, but he’s pulling it off, and did gain 9.51 strokes ball-striking two starts ago at the Wyndham Championship. In DFS, you got to ride players that are hot and Na is certainly tearing up the courses right now – play him until he lays an egg. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T51, 2018 – T12, 2017 – T53, and 2016 – T20.
The $6K Range
Sebastian Munoz (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – Munoz went T18-T8-T8 last year in the playoffs, and he might do it all over again this season as he’s coming off a T21 last week where he gained almost 5 strokes ball-striking. He has two T4’s in his last five starts and has four top 29’s in his last five tournaments played. He’s an excellent ball-striker as he has gained strokes in seven straight events that include shot link data, and his short game has been pretty swell over his last four statistically tracked events, as well. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T8.
Keith Mitchell (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – If you’re looking to build some serious stars and scrubs lineups this week, then Mitchell should fit your scrubs profiling as he has two top 5’s in his last three events including last week’s T8 where he gained strokes across the board except for approach where he only lost 0.54. He missed five cut lines in a row before getting on his mini-heater, but there’s no cut line to worry about this week, so you can roster him and feel fine about getting four rounds out of him. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T52 and 2018 – T45.
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $6.2K) – I wanted to include a nice low-cost player in my scrubs section, so I settled on Gooch who is almost at the minimum price and has been consistently in the teens, 20’s, or 30’s since early May – plus he’s coming off a T31 last week where he gained almost five and a half strokes in approach. If you want to have a couple of $10K+ players together in your lineups this week, then Gooch will help you to easily accomplish that goal. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T65.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s THE NORTHERN TRUST
The 10K+ Range
- Jon Rahm – 3rd
- Jordan Spieth – 73rd
- Collin Morikawa – Cut
The $9K Range
- Abraham Ancer – T64
- Scottie Scheffler – T43
- Daniel Berger – T56
The $8K Range
- Harris English – T31
- Paul Casey – T64
- Adam Scott – Cut
The $7K Range
- Ian Poulter – T31
- Seamus Power – T31
- Jhonattan Vegas – Cut
The $6K Range
- Maverick McNealy –
- Roger Sloan – Cut
- Hank Lebioda – Cut
