Fantasy Football Auction Draft Strategy 2021

Navigating Fantasy Auction Drafts like Marco Polo

I love drafting and trading–the idea of building and chasing drives me; maintaining and managing rosters and lineups are just too tedious and uneventful for me.  I’m not a rush junkie or anything, but I just love change.  Slow drafts are the rage now and I suppose I can see the draw, but they either bring out the worst in people or the worst in me…both are possible I guess.  People are busy and it’s hard to nail down a dedicated time to labor through 25+ rounds amongst 12-16 (or more people) and folks believe they need to scour the 4 corners of the internet to find that one nugget that will help them decide which WR to take in the 3rd rd; BUT, sheesh, do we really need to drain an 8-hour clock to the last moment just to select Ceedee Lamb?  I can’t even imagine a slow auction draft and in the immortal words of Dirty Harry, “a man has to know his limitations” and a slow, auction draft is beyond mine. Snake drafts are fine, more structured, and predictable, but much less strategic than auctions and one tends to feel less in “control” in snake formats as they hold on for dear life until the worst person in the world continues to snipe them on the turn.  Freaking ridiculous. Auctions offer much more variance and force a manager to constantly apply strategic thought almost on every player being considered.

We use a hybrid model in one of my dynasty leagues and it’s super fun.  Basically, we employ a two-round linear rookie draft and then follow that up with a two-round, live auction format for remaining FAs using our yearly-allocated FAAB.  It’s engaging, offers variety, and a tremendous way to open up free agency for the season.  Highly recommended.  Of the auction variety, salary-cap leagues are probably my personal favorite with RealityonSports.com being a good platform for that application.  Be decisive and for the love of Pete, resist the urge to purposely sit until the last second before posting a bid.  As you can probably tell, I have a real issue with time and right now, I’m wasting yours.  First up, Strategy.

Fantasy Draft Tip: Be Prepared!

You can either recall the motto of the boy scouts or Scar standing on the ledge singing about his ruthless takeover of Pride Rock, but being prepared is key to anything and fantasy drafting is no exception.  This is basic blocking and tackling stuff here, but you could end up doing endless wind sprints after the game if things like scoring, setup, and structure aren’t adequately considered in your strategy.  Take a quick look at this next table just to see that names and rankings don’t always convey as well as you might think.  Nick Chubb is a fantastic RB and could be a top 5 talent in real life, but he just doesn’t translate well in PPR leagues; Kareen Hunt actually scored more PPR points last season than Chubb (in 4 more games).  I am in no way suggesting to draft Kareem Hunt at the expense of Nick Chubb, but value at ADP given other options around Chubb’s mark?  Not a bad idea. Henry doesn’t catch many passes either, but he more than makes up for it in yards and especially TDs. Chubb has a huge name and I know it may seem right to drop top $$$ on him when that big RB run happens (most likely immediately), but I’d much rather go for a guy like Antonio Gibson or Austin Ekeler than making it rain on Chubb.

I just found out the other day that K and D/ST can still be found in some leagues and bravo to you to keep the lights burning for Justin Tucker and Mason Crosby.  We eliminated both positions in my primary dynasty league in 2016 and one league mate still has a ceremony on that day every season as we virtually come around the fire and pay homage to the greats of years past.  Likewise, SF and 1QB leagues are much different when it comes to stud QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen; even more so in leagues that feature 6 pts per passing TD vice 4.  Mahomes is most likely going to dominate the cash flow in a SF league while he’ll drop down significantly in 1QB leagues, especially when QB5-QB11 had less than 2 PPG difference between them in 2020 (consistent across the past 10 years). Again, this is very basic preparation, but it would be misguided to believe all managers take the time to look at the lineups (know how many players you need to fill a team!) and scoring system before setting off on their quest.  

Be Prepared! 2 – The Sequel

It’s not too risky to walk into a snake draft with just a cheat sheet and general knowledge of the game, but entering into an auction draft, in the same way, will most likely ruin your day.  My son-in-law loves auction drafts (I like to call them Job Fairs where I employ players rather than buy players, but that’s just me) and he sets $$$ goals for positions–allocate 32% of the budget to WRs–sets tiers for players vice rankings, and then establishes ranges/ceilings for players he’s targeting.  He knows going in how much money he can shell out across the team, whom he is targeting, and how much he is willing to offer player x and y.  He does really well in these formats.  You have to know what strategy you want to employ though and do your very best to stick with it.  Unless you’re in a league with a bunch of new players or a pack of ultra-conservative spenders, wading into the auction pool with little more than “We want the ball and we’re going to win” approach doesn’t typically end well.  

“Strategery”

There are really only a couple of overarching strategies to employ, but in the immortal words of Kenny Rogers, “you gotta know when to hold ’em, when to fold em, when to walk away, and know when to run” and you have to know when it’s time to stretch the margins of your strategy.  My experience tells me there are a couple of different personalities that always show up in auctions and you have to know what type of dinnerware you’re going to set up for them at the feast.  

The Enforcer – every draft needs one or two of these players to keep people honest and if you have to play this role (and it can be super uncomfortable when you’re holding bid on a player you really don’t want or can’t afford, but it’s a crime to allow a studly player walk below value) for the bigger purpose, then roll up your sleeves and go Dirty Harry on em.  Love Clint Eastwood. Be ready to contend with the enforcer as they will drive spending early. Sweat will begin to bead on your forehead when the top 5 RBs are max priced and you’ve been too timid to get into the mix.  Price enforcement is an absolute required element and it can either work for or against your strategy, player by player, and the sooner you know who the enforcers are and how to navigate around them based on your own strategic goals, the odds improve in your favor.

The Heckler – you’re in way too many leagues with this guy and he knows your tendencies.  They challenge your every move and purposely nominate your favorite sleepers just to overprice them early.  We all have players we love, but value is the name of the game in fantasy.  It’s a marriage made in heaven when those two are joined, but don’t become so tied to your “guys” that you overspend just to feel as though you won the battle and end up sitting in a foxhole with no ammo and get smoked while the war is still waging.

The Pokemon Attack – Ash Ketchum is out to get em all and they believe the best way to win is to go big on four RBs and then basically peace out the remainder of the Job Fair. CMAC falls to them right out of the gate and then Dalvin.  The ghost of Ezekiel Elliot and Nick Chubb follow and the rest of the draft room is in a tizzy as the scramble to snag one of the remaining studs heats up bidding to a panic state. For the love of all that is holy, resist the urge to throw buckets of cash at Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders or the like, but it’s not a great idea to be left with James Robinson as your RB1 in a dynasty. I love big cat and think he’s better than Travis Etienne, but not as your top guy. Spot the Pokemon attack early and thwart their plan to catch em all–then sit back and watch the fireworks.  The Stars n Scrubs approach is fairly consistent with this personality as they catch Charizard and Warturtle early and dismiss the cute Jigglypuff or Togepi (I had to look up the last one to be honest). 

Scrooge McDuck – She loves looking at the $$$ and is either too timid or frugal to drop coin on players and next thing they know, they still have 70% of their budget with only $2 value guys left available.  The Sit n Wait method is common with this type as they watch the big spenders throw straight cash at studs hoping to still sop up gravy with lots of bread in the middle to late rounds, but if one goes full Scrooge, they’re left harvesting guys best served in free agency.  (Contribution by Chris Joyner)

The Accountant – Spreadsheets, value equations that factor in sunk vs opportunity cost, ledgers that keep track of everyone’s expenditures, player by player, cost ratios, and they will not deviate from the Return of Investment framework regardless of market surges in supply and demand.  Fear doesn’t drive this manager, they are more prone to paralysis by analysis, but they may find themselves elbow to elbow with Scrooge fighting for the Parris Campbell and Myles Gaskin variety. (Contribution by Ian Lovering)

Okay, now that we know who is coming to dinner, there are only so many ways to prepare the meal, serve a high-priced entree out the gate with crumbs to follow (stars and scrubs), throw out some morsels to keep the guests busy while saving the best for last (sit and wait), or prepare some hearty appetizers to satiate their gullets when the guests arrive with choice dishes later into the evening (hybrid).  Okay, enough of the dinner metaphor.

Stars n Scrubs – Fairly straightforward, ~70% of the overall budget is used on 4-6 studs that anchor your team and the remainder is used to grab lesser-tier value to fill out the remainder of the roster.  The advantage is that you’re left with 5 to 6 producing players, but the remainder of the squad is full of medium to low tier players and if your studs either don’t perform or get hurt, one may be left with very little wiggle room to wade through adversity.  Studs may have to be leveraged to shore up weaknesses.  But, if those studs hit and a few of the smaller fries grow up to be big spuds on their own, a great core to maintain.  Depth is nice, but overrated at the expense of quality starters.

Sit n Wait – Reminiscent of Scrooge and the Accountant, the manager waits for the big spenders to empty their purse in hopes of grabbing tremendous value afterward. I’ve seen this work to a degree, but more often than not, there are multiple accountants or scrooges’ in the auction room and the only thing that occurs is bidding wars on lesser quality players.  One of the first things to learn when delivering a brief to a group of people is to know the audience and tailor the presentation accordingly.  Delivering a topic at levels either too high or too low or not focused on the value proposition of those in the room can be disastrous.  Same thing applies here; a sit and wait approach can be very effective if you’re in a league with a high number of aggressive owners.  If all you see are spreadsheets littering the floor, then perhaps you’re better off being served hitting first instead of waiting to be hit later.

More Tips

• Test the waters and don’t be afraid to dive in.  Plan the work and work the plan, but be dynamic enough to deviate based on the currents.  It’s always easier to go with a rip tide than to fight against it.
• Don’t tip your hand or show a tell.  Nominate players to drive activity and play the game.  The only time I really nominate a player I really want is toward the end with little money left.  I feed the beast what it wants and sit back and watch them feed. 
• Obi-wan told Luke Skywalker to be mindful of his thoughts (fears) as they would betray him, same.  Auctions are uber fun and way more dynamic than snake drafts, but they can carry you away if you let them.  Runs will happen, your guys will get priced out, positional scarcity will make you sweat, and one bad choice can cascade into an avalanche as emotions rage against the darkness.  Stay on target, show a bit of wiggle in the pocket, and throw strikes downfield.  
• Drafting is only one way to field a competitive team.  Nailing a draft feels great and there are leagues that are um, trade adverse, but what happens after the draft is just as, if not moreso, critical to competitive standing in a league.  Show out in the auction, but don’t get too high or low.  There is usually room to maneuver afterwards.