Detroit Lions Fantasy Deep Dive
At this point, the Lions and the Texans look like two of the worst offenses heading into 2021, especially if Deshaun Watson isn’t the Texans’ quarterback. We might dabble in some other teams and players in the coming weeks, but we’ll start with the Lions and Texans. First, we’ll focus on the Lions’ offense with many deep league options on both teams. I planned to combine both teams but ended up breaking it into two articles, given the length.
So, why would we want to target players on weaker projected offenses? Who should we target on those respective teams with any sleeper or breakout potential? Part of the reason for targeting players on weaker projected offenses includes their respective ADP. When looking at the top three Lions’ wide receivers, all three go from pick 157 to 181 in Underdog ADP. That means most fantasy managers likely won’t have those players on their radar, especially when it’s Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
For this article, we won’t touch on D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson since they’re top players at their positions in fantasy football drafts. The same goes with Brandin Cooks on the Texans, but we’ll touch on David Johnson because he goes as RB46 on Underdog ADP.
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Running Backs
Jamaal Williams (135.3 ADP – RB43)
The former Packers running back in Jamaal Williams now sits behind D’Andre Swift as the Lions’ RB2. Last season, Williams fared well as a pass-catching and change of pace running back. Willams garnered a 36.2% (No. 52) Opportunity Share and received 126.4 (No. 35) Weighted Opportunities. He ranked top-30 with 236 (No. 26) receiving yards and 31 (No. 28) receptions amongst running backs.
Although Williams lacked efficiency with 4.9 (No. 32) Yards Per Touch and a -8.2 (No. 57) Production Premium, he showed some upside with more opportunities. Last season, Williams recorded two RB1 and two RB2 performances and averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game. In half of those four games, Aaron Jones also played. However, during those four games, Williams averaged over 19 touches per game with 98.5 total yards. We note that because Williams can earn an RB2 type role if given the opportunities.
With Anthony Lynn as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, Jamaal Williams is a running back to target with a zero-RB type build. As the Chargers head coach, Lynn’s offenses typically involved multiple running backs with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. I’m not saying Williams will serve in an Ekeler type role, but Williams should earn some opportunities in the passing game.
Jermar Jefferson (216 ADP – RB98)
Until recently, Jermar Jefferson didn’t have an ADP in Underdog best-ball leagues. It’s not surprising since he is more of a dynasty sleeper after having the dreaded 7th round draft capital. Jefferson was the two picks away from ending up as Mr. Irrelevant. He finished with a 32.7% (76th-percentile) College Dominator partly due to his uber-productive freshman season with 1,380 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns.
Jefferson battled injuries in his final two seasons, which contributed to the lack of production. However, on a per-game basis in 2019 and 2020, Jefferson averaged over 102 rushing yards with minimal production in the receiving game. Unfortunately, Jefferson also stunk in the workout metrics with an 88.1 (21st-percentile) Speed Score, 110.2 (14th-percentile) Burst Score, and 11.78 (14th-percentile) Agility Score. In redraft leagues, Jefferson isn’t fantasy-relevant unless the Lions have several injuries in their backfield. Even then, the Lions may add a veteran in that situation.
Wide Receivers
Tyrell Williams (170.4 ADP – WR78)
The Lions arguably have one of the worst receiver groups with Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Quintez Cephus. No disrespect, but veterans in Williams and Perriman flashed in some games yet lacked consistency. Williams missed the entire 2020 season with shoulder surgery. However, he provided efficient production in 2019, evidenced by 10.2 (No. 7) Yards Per Target and +31.7 (No. 5) Production Premium.
Breshad Perriman (181.1 ADP – WR 82)
Breshad Perriman shows a similar skillset with the speed and big-play ability given his 125.7 (99th-percentile) Speed Score. In 2019 and 2020, Perriman ranked inside the top-10 in yards per reception with 17.9 (No. 6) in 2019 and 16.8 (No. 9) in 2020. Perriman finished with one WR1 week with 11 other WR3 or worse type weeks last season.
However, late in 2019, Perriman finished with a pair of WR1 and WR2 weeks in Week 14-17. During that stretch, both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed time due to injuries. As a result, Perriman seized the opportunity.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (157.7 ADP – WR72)
With 4th round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, he holds an intriguing prospect profile. St. Brown lacks speed with an 81.3 (13th-percentile) Speed Score but boasts a 129 (86th-percentile) Burst Score. However, St. Brown’s 33.1% (62nd-percentile) College Dominator and 18.9 (91st-percentile) Breakout Age provide some reasons for optimism. The closest RotoViz prospect comparisons include Jerry Jeudy with a similar receiving yards market share, size, and speed.
Quintez Cephus (215.7 ADP – WR120)
Just as many expected, Quintez Cephus led the Lions with ten targets in Week 1 last season. Unfortunately, Cephus only hauled in three of those ten targets for 43 receiving yards. Outside of a 35.7% (71st-percentile) College Dominator, 25.5% (76th-percentile) college target share, and a 127.5 (82nd-percentile) Burst Score, the profile for Cephus doesn’t look great. However, Matthew Stafford targeted him downfield with a 14.5 (No. 10) Average Target Distance and 10 (No. 13) Yards Per Target. Cephus will likely need an injury or poor play from the top-3 receivers to earn more opportunities.
Which Lions Skills Players Should We Draft?
A reminder that I didn’t cover the no-brainers in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. We know they’re talented players that have an ADP inside the top-100 picks. On the Lions, I find Jamaal Williams, Tyrell Williams, and Breshad Perriman most interesting. Williams and Perriman showed flashes in the past but lacked consistency throughout an entire season. Jamaal Williams should earn some targets in the passing game with early stand-alone value.
However, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s prospect profile draws us in as an unknown player with upside given the lack of talent and clear leader amongst the Lions’ receivers. It’s within the realm of possibilities for St. Brown to earn more opportunities based on how he performs in training camp and the preseason. Given the RotoViz Box Score Scouting comparison of Jerry Jeudy, I’m more intrigued than before I started this research. If you’re looking to stack a cheaper offense, the Lions provide that option with Jared Goff plus any of their wide receivers.
