Looking at the current state of the Houston Texans roster without Deshaun Watson is a difficult task for any fantasy manager. Massive roster turnover and an ongoing legal situation surrounding Watson have created an extremely underwhelming offensive personnel group in 2021. Those brave enough to wade through the muck will find Nico Collins, a talented rookie wide receiver going undrafted with a massive opportunity to finish as a WR3 in 2021.
Nico Collins 2021 Fantasy Overview
Collins developed and ascended year-to-year during his tenure at the University of Michigan, earning the team’s Most Improved Player award in 2018 and then winning Michigan’s Offensive Player of the Year award in 2019 due to a 16.6 yard per reception average. He will be the Texans’ biggest wide receiver by a sizable margin, as Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Anthony Miller are all under six feet. Collins has ridiculously elite speed for a player his size and will be a matchup nightmare for smaller cornerbacks, as he stands 6’4″ and weighs in at 215 pounds. Collins’ physicality and ability to win jump-ball throws will be a massive asset for whoever ends up winning the quarterback battle in Houston, meaning the value of most of his targets will likely be higher compared to the more shallow routes that figure to be run by the smaller slot wideouts like Coutee and Miller. Collins is a good player to draft in an offense that expects to play catch-up frequently thanks to a defensive unit that ranked 28th in points allowed (454) in 2020. He was selected as the 89th overall pick in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft alongside Stanford quarterback Davis Mills and University of Miami tight end Jordan Brevin, who were all drafted within the first three rounds by new Texans general manager Nick Caserio. Collins is the most fantasy-relevant player of these three in 2021 because he is positioned to step right into the WR2 role vacated by Will Fuller V.
Nico Collins played 100% of the first-team snaps in the Texans preseason game
He got loose for this 24-yard catch and run pic.twitter.com/leaVQ62HFR
— Jarad Evans (@PFF_Jarad) August 17, 2021
Houston, We Have a Wideout
Will Fuller V averaged 6.8 targets per game last season, ranking second behind Cooks (7.9) but first on the team in average depth of target (ADOT) at 13.1 yards. Collins has similar speed and size to Fuller and will likely be a frequent player involved in chunk plays and goal-line targets for the Texans thanks to his combination of size, strength, speed, and aggression that could quickly evolve into him becoming the preferred wide receiving option, even over Brandin Cooks. Coutee and Miller both averaged under five targets per game last season, meaning neither player is a legitimate threat to Collins and his projected high-value target share.
Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, and Jeff Driskel are certainly less talented than the likes of Watson. However, Taylor has proven he can be a competent quarterback and take command of an offense, leading the Buffalo Bills to the postseason with an 8-6 record as a starter back in 2017. Prior to leading the Buffalo Bills to the postseason for the first time in nearly two decades, the now 32-year old quarterback earned a Pro-Bowl selection in 2015 during his first season as a starter in Buffalo. Taylor scored 24 total touchdowns and threw only six interceptions that year, while flashing shades of Lamar Jackson, carrying 104 times for 568 yards and four touchdowns. He is a true dual-threat quarterback when healthy. Unfortunately, in 2020, the Los Angeles Chargers’ team medical staff punctured Taylor’s lung during a pre-game treatment, effectively sidelining him for the majority of the season and launching rookie quarterback Justin Herbert into the fantasy football stratosphere.
Let’s not forget Taylor is the Texans’ highest-paid free agent, having signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract this offseason. If Taylor wins the starting quarterback job in Houston, he could succeed under the tutelage of new head coach David Culley, who is a disciple of the Andy Reid coaching tree and will be transitioning from his role as the Baltimore Ravens wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator in 2020. During his last full season as a starter back in 2017, Taylor ranked 18th in deep ball completion percentage (31.6%) which can be defined as throws of 20 yards or more. This is the exact type of aggressive style that complements Nico Collins’ ability as a fluid, big body on the perimeter who can use his deceptive speed and ball-tracking ability to win one-on-one jump balls downfield. David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay don’t form the most formidable running back committee but if they are even slightly effective in moving the down markers, play-action passes will be set up and delivered to Collins on a silver platter. Downfield targets are lucrative, as they yield massive yardage and carry potential touchdown value, which doubles the point total of an already robust reception.
Draft Strategy
Nico Collins is going undrafted as the WR93 in half-PPR formats but that doesn’t mean fantasy managers should wait to claim him off of league waiver wires. Instead, use one of the final picks to draft Collins to the bench, where he will likely sit for a couple of weeks before emerging as a consistent target in a rebuilt Texans offense. If you really want to bank on Collins’ role within the offense early, drafting him at the end when most of the D/ST and K are coming off of the board is a fantastic way to gain a valuable trade asset to deploy later on in the fantasy season. Imagine Collins mirroring Fuller’s usage in the opening weeks of the season, averaging seven targets per game with an average depth of target at 13.1 yards. League mates will be chomping at the bit to get a dominant wide receiver on a bad team, as he will continuously be fed targets to remain competitive. Even if it takes a few weeks for Collins to acclimate to the NFL and an offense in a full rebuild mode with its personnel and staff, drafting him late doesn’t hurt your roster. Location in the league is everything and Collins fell into the perfect situation and has the physical size and skill to fill the void left by Fuller this offseason.
