Fantasy Breakdown: The Pittsburgh Steelers WR Trio

Steelers WR Breakdown: Stygian Witches are better than the Smurfs

Clash of the Titans (1981)  starring Harry Hamlin was bad.  The CGI was horrendous and the acting was unremarkable…but I loved it. – Watch the Trailer 

That mechanical owl just slayed me.  Perseus had to battle so many mythological creatures and who can forget the releasing of the Krakken?!  Far superior to the one made in 2010 no matter the advances in technology.  My favorite part of the original version was the Stygian Witches, three-blind sisters that had magical powers and some fairly aggressive cannibalistic tendencies.  The scene where they battled over the glass orb, which enabled them to see, is just comedic gold. I made it a league rule to refer to the manager with the three best WRs on their team as Stygian Witches in honor of the original gate keepers.  

Football players are entertainers and if I took a few moments to compare football positions to the music industry, the QB would definitely be a solo, superstar artist like Usher, the OL would be a metal band, the LB corps would be old-school boy band like Boyz to Men, and the WR group would be Diana Ross or Beyonce…Diva.  They have an entourage, wear heels and sport a cape, and that walk, sheesh.  The WFT, circa 1982, had a group of pint-sized WRs (no, Rondale Moore, I’m not looking at you) that referred to themselves as the Smurfs and whenever one would score a TD they would all huddle in the end zone and perform for the crowd.  The real WR1 on that team, a GAM, and hall of famer, Art Monk, had nothing to do with them, thank the Lord.  I think at one point there were 27 players in a circle doing backflips.  The NFL had to ban group celebrations for years because of the Divas taking center stage. Don’t get me started on Chad Johnson.  No other position on the field demands as much pomp and circumstance.  Spontaneous shouts of celebration–cool; premeditated broadway shows at midfield?  No thank you.  Papa Smurf has ruled. 

Dallas, Tampa Bay, and the new-look Bengals can all hold a beer, the Stygian Witches in the NFL reside in Pittsburgh and although that might not be statistically true, I’m writing the article, I wanted to work in the Stygian Witches, and this article is about Juju, Diontae, and Chase so there you have it.

Steelers WR Fantasy Breakdown

One of the most puzzling moments in the offseason was the announcement by Juju Smith-Schuster that he was returning to Pittsburgh and I felt the whole fantasy community fall back into their couches with an audible oof that created a shift in westerly-wind patterns.  Diontae Johnson was finally going to get to unify the divisions and wear the uncontested WR1 belt and Chase Claypool was in store for a big season, but Juju’s return cast a HUGE shadow of doubt and Twitter went bonkers. Add in a VERY ambiguous QB situation as Ben Roethlisberger is clearly on his last leg and the dynasty outlook for Steelers’ pass catchers is akin to looking through a pair of old binoculars you find at a yard sale; can’t see anything no matter how much you try to tweak the focus dial. I will examine all three WRs and perhaps shed some light on a very murky situation especially when looking at how to value each this year and post-Ben.   

To Ben or not to Ben, that is the Question

I’m a big picture guy and I like to build out the framing before painting the details and unless you’re an elite WR that can produce at high numbers with a middling QB, QBs matter a lot when it comes to WR production.  And just to be clear, none of the Steelers’ WRs are elite and I’m glad to get that out of the way.  I think most have heard the stat that Pittsburgh has had only 3 head coaches since Chuck Noll was hired in 1969; an impressive mark for sure.  What may be more impressive is the number of starting QBs the team has run out there since Terry Bradshaw began his time behind center in 1970.  Cleveland Browns had more starting QBs in one season, I think.  Take a look at this list and most importantly, the manner in which the QB was added to the team.  I’ve been a huge Steelers’ fan since 1974 and I forgot all about the Mike Tomczak year, probably best that it remain blocked from my memory.  Draft is obviously the manner in which Pittsburgh brings in QBs, minus grabbing Tommy Maddox from the XFL and the aforementioned Tomczak after he was cut from the Packers.  

Okay, the Steelers grow QBs from the draft, but they’re anti-Green Bay in that they don’t invest in 1st round QBs, hence Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs fighting for standing on the team.  The Steelers did bring in Dwayne Haskins and although his latest outing wasn’t horrible, he’s ultra-conservative and doesn’t show he’s the future.  It would go against the grain and 50 years history for the team to sign a big-time FA QB to take over when Ben finally walks away this season, but there really isn’t a stallion in the stable either so the future remains extremely nebulous…and terrifying if you’re a Steelers’ fan.  

If you want to see what the team could be in 2022, we only have to go back to 2019 when Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges took snaps after Ben was lost for the season in week 2.  Diontae was WR40, James Washington was WR51, and Juju was WR66. If Pittsburgh brings in a big-time QB then just erase all of this pessimism, but if they don’t, there is little to think the team will be able to sustain fantasy production across 3 WRs (even 2 if Juju does sign elsewhere in the offseason).  ADP for Diontae and Chase will plummet worse than the stock market during the housing crash in 2008. 

The Tide is High

Blondie sang about the tide being high in 1980 and I won’t get started on rising waters given climate change, but the tide is definitely shifting in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers didn’t invest a rare first round pick in Najee Harris just to lead the league in pass versus rush percentage again. The Steelers’ employed a terribly unbalanced offense in 2020–63.8% pass to 36.2% rush–and that clip became more bloated down the stretch with a 76.5% pass rate over the final three games.  More specific to the passing game, a clean 70% of the targets were directed to WRs with a paltry 12.4% dished out to RBs, 2nd fewest percentage in the league (Tennessee with Derrick Henry was last).  Volume was king in Steeltown in 2020 and the Stygian Witches feasted.  The offense will attempt to feature a more balanced attack with Harris and most likely McFarland rushing and catching balls out of the backfield.  TEs will likely to be featured at a higher clip. Something has to give and it will be targets to WRs. 

2020 at a Glance

Eff = Efficiency, or # of fantasy points per reception

The Case for Juju

Juju was an uncelebrated rookie coming out in 2017 and was a mid to late 2nd round rookie pick in most leagues.  Then he scored 7 TDs and had a MONSTER 2018.  His ADP soared to an apogee of WR4 and overall #8 in dynasty startup (July 2019)…and then he flamed out during reentry.  Evidently, his Beyonce’ Diva transition didn’t fare too well so all he had left was dancing on logos at midfield. His downfall most likely had more to do with Antonio Brown leaving and not being able to carry the weight as WR1 and then having to catch passes from Mason Rudolph in 2019.  His 2020 season, even with a full season of Ben and many other weapons around him, Juju’s ADP descent continued to a staggering WR26, lagging behind both Claypool (WR21) and Johnson (WR22).  Juju has never really had a volume issue, it’s been more about his role in the offense and what he did with his targets.  When playing beside an elite WR like Antonio, he put up elite numbers himself, but when looking at his 2020 season amongst his peers since 2015, he recorded the worst Yards Per Reception (8.57 YPR) of a WR with 60 or more catches.  Even worse, Juju’s Yards Before Contact was an abysmal <4 yards, meaning that he played at or near the line of scrimmage for 128 targets. Even Jarvis Landry shudders at the thought.  Here is my theory as to Juju’s employment this past season.  Juju was anti-Pitts, meaning he was a WR playing TE, a trend he started for Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews.  The Steelers were largely without a viable TE2 and Benny Snell isn’t a legit starting RB in the league so Juju played this role on the team, which as I think about it, is well, selfless, and a great team player.  Now that the Steelers have Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth on the squad, I’d expect Juju to increase his depth of target and boomerang back up to his career numbers (13.9 YPR).  I don’t think Juju is targeted at his 2020 rate again and his 9 TDs will be difficult to match, but his efficiency will increase and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him very close to 1,000 yards on the season.  Ok, fewer passing opportunities, more running, more TE involvement, what does this mean to Diontae Johnson?

The Case for Diontae

He had a lot of drops in 2020 (10) and over half had to be of the uncontested layup variety.  Extremely frustrating watching as a fan so I can’t imagine how frustrating it had to be for the team.  Peyton Manning would have pulled out his heart ala Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom-style at one point given his infamous bouts of rage on the field.  It’s fair to associate drops with Diontae, but if we’re going to do that then we have to include 2021 Twitter darlings, Jerry Jeudy and Ceedee Lamb, who both had 9 each last season.  Unlike Juju who was basically told to stay in a box, Diontae was given the latitude to basically operate wherever he wanted or so it seemed.  He was the 6th most targeted WR in the league and accumulated the most receiving yards in the AFC North.  Even though Diontae was afforded a much greater route tree than Juju, he still finished with an anemic 10.49 YPR average and a very low-efficiency mark, meaning he recorded a lot of receptions, but his effort resulted in sub-average fantasy points scored compared to the field.  His 61% catch rate was bottom 25% of WRs with 30 or more catches in 2020 and he had the 6th worst YPR average of WRs with 60 or more receptions on the season.  Diontae’s production appears to be predicated by sheer volume and as already stated with Juju, it would not be wise to assume the volume rate continues in 2021.  He passes the eye test, he appears to be more strategically used in the offense, but given a choice between Juju at (WR) ADP 33 or Diontae at 23, there’s little doubt I’m selecting Juju.  Juju will most likely be somewhere else next season so lots of uncertainty from a dynasty perspective, but who is going to be throwing the ball to Diontae in Pittsburgh in 2022?  Brandon Aiyuk sits at (WR) ADP 24 and DJ Moore is right behind at ADP 26–both are easily ahead of Mr. Johnson in my book.

The Case for Chase

I like Chase alot and think he has more to offer than the way he was deployed in the offensive last season.  He wasn’t strictly a run fast and straight guy as but was definitely his primary purpose and as the season went on, safeties began cheating his direction, limiting his effectiveness.  If Juju played shallow and Diontae roamed in the intermediate zones, Chase was the long-ball threat and his 9 TDs and respectable 14.08 YPR average show. The Steelers have a new Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada, and he’s saying the right things so far about having a more diverse (read, less predictable) offensive set in 2021 so we should see if Chase is more than a one-trick pony.  If we want to see Chase take the next step in 2021, he and Ben have to have greater chemistry…is that the word?  Efficiency?  Effectiveness?  Only Michael Gallup and Jerry Jeudy had few catches than Chase in the 100 target club (35 WRs were targeted 100 or more times last season).  Chase didn’t record many drops so it was really a nature of Ben having a noodle arm and Chase running deeper routes equaling a low pass completion rate, especially when factoring in how the defense starting playing him.  I’ve been around the block enough to know that people are rational and they’ll dig for miles until they find a source that agrees with them just so they can raise a banner to their rightness.  That’s just human nature, but I think the tape and numbers are pretty clear and consistent with Chase; he ran a very limited route tree, he was a home run target, and his QB has difficulty completing deep passes at this stage of his career.  Unless Oh Canada employs him differently, I’d expect him to replicate close to what he did last season with a difficult time replicating 9 TDs.  However, of the Stygian Witches–and this is where I deviate a bit from the norm–I like him the best as a dynasty asset moving forward and I know if I search hard enough, I’ll find a source to agree.

Bottom Line

• Volume will decrease in the passing game as the Steelers run more often and employ a different offensive set.
• Juju will run deeper routes and he and Diontae will fight for targets in the same part of the field
• Chase will most likely be used in a similar way as last season–as a gunner–but he will see a bit more offensive variance 
• Positional ADP for each is a bit too high for me; I’d take a safer selection given the uncertainty in following years
• Diontae can be featured and run all the routes and is the safer WR to draft THIS YEAR