Buccaneers Backfield 2021
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into the 2021 NFL season set up to make another run at a Super Bowl. Tom Brady helped turn this team around so fast that it’s still a bit hard to comprehend that they just won the Super Bowl over the Chiefs. This offense was the highest scoring one in the NFL in 2020 and every starter is back on both sides of the ball, with a few additional players as well. The Buccaneers backfield was far from ideal for fantasy football purposes, and may very well be even tougher to decipher in 2021. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette both showed flashes at times, with Fournette finishing the season as one of the best players for Tampa Bay in the playoffs while Jones missed time with a quad injury. This backfield now adds to the mix, veteran pass-catching specialist Giovani Bernard who spent eight seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Buccaneers finished the 2020 season 28th in the NFL in yards per game with 1,519. This makes three straight years of barely cracking 1,500 total rushing yards, keeping them near the bottom of the league in that category. It is worth noting that they did improve on their total yards per carry from 3.7 in 2019 to 4.1 last year. The Buccaneers were also 29th in overall rushing and 15th in rushing touchdowns in the league. Basically what we have is a running back by committee on an offense that doesn’t tend to feed their running backs, to begin with. Tampa Bay is definitely a pass-first offense and that’ll be that case again in 2021 and as long as Brady and this group of pass-catchers are here, led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Advanced Player Metrics and Efficiency
One way that you can look at players and evaluate them is using our Advanced Player Metrics and our Advanced Efficiency Player Metrics. These stats look at several different aspects of a running back’s game such as Evaded Tackles, Breakaway Runs, and fantasy points per attempt or target. Take these with a grain of salt, as it can be tough to simply look at statistics using a per-game basis, which doesn’t factor in games like Week 5 against Chicago where Fournette was technically active, but was coming off an injury and didn’t see the field. There were just four games last year where he had 10 or more carries, with five games where he had five or fewer carries.
Jones saw the bulk of the carries last year, despite Fournette playing in just one less game. Jones was higher in just about every advanced efficiency metric that we track, and really just looked more explosive all around on the field. That being said, Fournette did come in when he was asked to and performed well enough that Arians kept him on the field and had no problem just sitting Jones out and going the rest of some games without him. That makes sense as he saw just three games where he played 60% or more of the snaps along with three games where he saw less than 5 PPR points. The uncertainty around who will play how many snaps, who will get the majority of the carries, and who might just happen to get benched that week, makes this backfield extremely tough to decipher.
Jones is currently listed as the starter for the Buccaneers, but both players have been taking reps with the starters. Not surprising at all given the way this backfield looked last year. One of the biggest factors when looking at this backfield is the fact that Fournette saw the bulk of the work in the playoffs. Jones dealt with his quad injury, but he did play in the final three games of the season and saw 13, 10, and 12 carries in those games.
Redraft ADP
Our latest ADP (Average Draft Position) has Fournette as the first Buccaneers running back off the board, with Jones as a close second. This isn’t too terribly surprising, but there are many sources that have Jones going before Fournette, but them being this close doesn’t surprise mean in the slightest. If you want one of these two on your fantasy football teams this year, you’ll need to spend roughly a sixth-round pick. At this point, it makes sense to just let whoever falls later in your drafts, and take advantage of the value. Depending on how deep your leagues and roster spots are, there’s a decent change Bernard goes undrafted in your redraft leagues.
While Bernard is the last back being drafted, there is absolutely a scenario where I could see him being the “safest” option and having the safest floor in this backfield for fantasy purposes. After seeing Arians get frustrated and bench Jones at times or even talks of potentially letting Fournette go, Bernard is an excellent option as the pass-blocking and pass-catching option that Tampa Bay lacked so much last year.
Another good indicator of redraft value is Best Ball leagues with Underdog. In these leagues, you aren’t required to set a lineup, rather the system automatically takes your best players for the week and plugs them into your lineup each week. This is really the main place that I’m interested in drafting this backfield this year. The ceiling for the best running back in this offense on a weekly basis is pretty high as we saw Jones total seven games with 15+ PPR points and four games with 15+ PPR points from Fournette last year.
Underdog ADP (8/17/21)
- Ronald Jones RB34, 100.4 ADP
- Leonard Fournette RB39, 122.3 ADP
- Giovani Bernard RB54, 179.1 ADP
Dynasty Outlook
If you’re a dynasty football fan, you are probably frustrated with this entire backfield. Right now, Jones has an ADP of 81.7 and Fournette has an ADP of 119.8. This makes sense as Jones is 24 and Fournette is 26. Jones is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2020 and I could absolutely see him wanting to test the market as he is on the fourth year of his deal. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Jones was getting frustrated with the way this backfield has been handled. While he did have a very poor first couple of seasons, he showed a ton of improvement this year and flashed at times.
Over the past couple of seasons, we’ve seen Tampa Bay bring in veterans LeSean McCoy and now Giovani Bernard. They brought in Fournette which was the biggest hit and the biggest indicator that they weren’t sold on Jones as the lead back. They also drafted pass-catching back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. This isn’t a ton of draft capital to invest, but as someone who is a nice pass-catcher, this wasn’t the best news for Jones who has always struggled in the passing game. Needless to say, the Buccaneers haven’t been fully invested or sold on Jones, which makes me believe Jones might be feeling a bit disrespected and willing to test the market. He’s young enough and has shown enough that I’d be happy to try and acquire him or draft him late in a dynasty startup and use him as an RB2 for the 2021season.
Fournette on the other hand is being valued so low right now that he also might be worth acquiring. As stated above, I wouldn’t be shocked if Jones tests free agency next year which could lead to a larger role if he stays in Tampa. Between his age and the split backfield he’s in right now, you can probably get him very cheap and I don’t mind him as a Flex option for the foreseeable future, with obvious upside. He is 26 and isn’t on the right side of 20 that you want for your dynasty running backs, but the price is just too cheap for the upside that he brings.
