Emmanuel Sanders Fantasy 2021
We love to compare everything, even to the extreme of banishing those to the North Wall who put their toilet paper roll on the wrong way. Compare, contrast, compete, condemn. Repeat. Samuel Taylor Coleridge said, “Imagination that compares and contrasts with what is around as well as what is better and worse is the living power and prime agent of all human perception judgment and emotional reaction.” I’m not exactly sure what he meant by that, but if it means that it is fundamental for humans to debate, argue, fight about whether Michael Jordan is better than Lebron James, then I agree wholeheartedly. Michael is, but that’s another story. What indubitably happens though is that advocates will build up one and tear the other down when making a case why one thing is better than the other and that is patently unfair and just plain intellectually lazy. Both players are in the top 10 basketball players to ever play the position, but we can’t help but start off the conversation with Michael’s 6 rings to Lebron’s 4 rings to 6 finals losses. I suppose we’re just to overlook the fact that Lebron led 10 teams to the finals, but because his team lost 6, he’s at best inferior to Michael, at worst, a loser.
Most would place Tom Brady as the GOAT and I fundamentally agree with this. What I won’t agree with, however, is the ongoing debate I see pop up on Twitter from time to time as a well-known online personality continually pushes the Randy Moss over Jerry Rice agenda and then the war wages. I think he has a calendar that tells him to drop another grenade just so he can sit back and watch people take shots from the foxholes. I think they’re easily 1 and 2 in NFL history and I’m going to slip into my own foxhole a bit and reduce the argument to my own binary outcome. Randy is the more athletic WR by any metric, but Jerry’s work ethic and longevity are legendary. Jerry’s statistics dwarf Randy’s, but I have to admit that if I had to select one player to win a game, I’d probably select Randy to suit up. The two big things that separate the two, at least in my humble opinion, are that Randy mailed in the 2006 season in Oakland because he took his ball and went home (an unforgivable decision) and that Randy ran up against the WR age cliff and fell off. Jerry never quit and he put up over 10,000 yards (more than Randy’s eight-year total in Minnesota) including 5 1,000 yard receiving seasons after defeating the age monster. There have been so many studies and articles about peak years for player positions and when the wheels fall off and 32 appears to be the consensus nominal age when WRs lose the war. Randy suited up after he fell off the age cliff, but how many remember his final year in San Francisco, while Jerry continued to dial up WR1 numbers for another decade. Longevity, superior numbers, never quit.
Emmanuel Sanders Fights Father Time
Emmanuel Sanders looked deep into the chasm where WRs go to retire and laughed. He passed the 32 age cliff 2 years ago and he’s still running routes and putting fear into players far his chronological junior. He looks spry and ready to compete so far in Buffalo, but what can we reasonably expect from both him and Gabriel Davis truthers? Good evening everyone, my name is Wayne Smith and I’m a Gabriel Davis truther. It all started when… I think that’s the real question–what is the impact to other players given Emmanuel Sanders presence/play? I’m an NFL history guy so I tend to look at into the past and extrapolate that into what is and what may be. There are certainly no absolutes, but I think it’s a decent indicator.
First, WRs have to be fairly elite to even make it to age 32 so no shade here whatsoever. Production is all that matters and for guys like Jerry Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, and Derrick Mason, who produced 3 straight 1,000 seasons starting at age 33, age is just a number. In fact, there have been 29 1,000+ receiving instances amongst WRs 30 or older since 2010 including Julian Edelman’s 2019 season where he topped 1,100 yards. 2020 was no stranger to old timers putting up big numbers as Cole Beasley, Marvin Jones, and Adam Thielen all surpassed 900 yards, but something else happened in 2020 and time will tell if it’s a trend or not. I reviewed WRs since 2010 and parsed out those 30 and older; that number rested at 206 total instances with players 30 or over. I also looked at those 30 and over in 2020 (25 players) and did a quick comparison. Production dropped precipitously across the board between 2020 and the sample years’ average in question (I’m looking at you, Julio) and only time will tell if the elder statesmen will continue to be phased out as the onslaught of young guns continue to flood the league.
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Admittedly 2020 is not a great year to baseline given COVID so we won’t stop there. Here is another table to break down WR production by age from 2010-2020. The data shows that age 32 is indeed where WRs do fall off the age cliff and only the best of the best see their 33rd birthday in the league. A big takeaway from this chart is that those players who defy gravity and continue walking on air (air walker) ala Indiana Jones in pursuit of the Holy Grail that their production numbers on average rise back up to pre-32 age numbers.
Now that you have the big picture, let’s drill down and take a closer look at Emmanuel and what we can reasonably expect from him in his 12th season in the league. There have been 34 total seasons that WRs 34 or older suited up. Of those 34 WR seasons, exactly 50% (17) resulted in 600 or more receiving yards on the season; 7 hit at least 800 yards and 4 tallied more than 1,000. For context, those four are Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald. Of the WRs in this look, only Steve Smith’s magical 2014 season at the age of 35 found a WR substantially increase their production from previous seasons after reaching their 34th birthday. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that as nice as Emmanuel Sanders has been in the past, he’s no Steve Smith and I emphasize the past. The 2016 season is the last time that Emmanuel caught 75 or more passes and broke 1,000 yards for the season. In fact, he would be one of only three WRs to increase production at all from previous seasons once hitting age 34. The aforementioned Steve Smith and a very small jump for Larry Fitzgerald from 2018 to 2019 (70 yards for the season). Given this, it is statistically improbable for Emmanuel to surpass his high-water receiving mark of 869 yards in 2019. From a purely statistical perspective, there is also a high probability for him to fall short of his 2020 total of 726 yards in an offense that should have optimized his route running skills on a depleted WR team (and it just may have). Given the competition with Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley (if he plays), and Gabriel Davis, I’d safely project 40 receptions and 525 yards for Emmanuel in 2021. He may have some value in Best Ball leagues and as an occasional flex starter in deeper leagues, but I’d stay away from him in redraft and especially shallower dynasty leagues.
Gabriel Davis Looks to Break Out
But what about Gabriel, I mean I see so many divergent opinions about him on Twitter that I don’t know what to believe? I asked myself that question and I hope to be able to answer it with some level of confidence. Reports from Bills’ training camp suggest that Emmanuel is a bit ahead of Gabriel Davis, but they play so differently that I believe they can co-exist within that offensive strategy. Buffalo threw the 2nd most targets to WRs (74.9% of all pass attempts) of any team during the 2020 season and I don’t see that changing much this season. Plenty of targets to go around. Wait, doesn’t that mean Emmanuel could be in for a big season? Possibly, but opportunity doesn’t always equal production. I think in the end, the biggest threat to Gabriel breaking out in 2021 is Gabriel himself and if he can’t take the next step in refining routes and extending his route tree, then it’s possible for Emmanuel to elevate simply given volume alone.
Gabriel played in all 16 games and registered respectable numbers overall, especially his 7 receiving TDs, but when we take a look at what his season looked like per game played average, it’s a bit difficult to get too excited. Less than 4 targets and 3 receptions a game, with a large Yards Before Catch (YBC) number and 1 broken tackle the whole season. Boil this down simply means he didn’t catch many balls in his rookie season, but he optimized production efficiency at an elite level. He was targeted deep in the route tree and enjoyed a number of long pass plays that resulted in breakaway TDs.
Succinctly, Gabriel caught 5 or more passes 1 time on the season, 2 of his TDs resulted from his lone catch on the day, while the other TDs came as a result of long pass plays. In fact, 78.1% of his 599 receiving yards came before the catch, meaning a lot of air yards. Serious TD regression is upon us this season if Gabriel doesn’t develop a more robust route tree and I’m all for it! However, and yes professional players tend to develop, especially with good coaching, but let’s take a quick look at what pundits were saying about Gabriel coming into last season, courtesy of the NFL network. The very first line in this strength’s portfolio says, “had multiple touchdowns in games five times in 2019.” Does this all sound familiar? But Wayne, he’s excelling what he’s good at and Buffalo probably limited him just to optimize his talents, so give the guy a break. That’s fair, but if he doesn’t improve and change his game, he’ll simply be nothing more than this generation’s Alvin Harper.
Weaknesses
- Excessive stutter-steps against soft press positioning
- Tight hips limit quickness into breaks
- Schemed into multiple one-on-one looks downfield
- Below talent yards after catch
- Ran limited route tree
Bottom Line
Buffalo will continue to throw to the WRs at a league-high percentage (lots of attempts also). Stefon will dominate the target share. Cole Beasley, so long as he doesn’t opt out, will continue to work at or near the line of scrimmage in space, and Gabriel will continue to hit on long passes either running posts or go patterns along the sidelines. Perhaps Gabriel can become a more refined route runner with years of specialized instruction and practice, but given what we experienced from him in college and during his rookie year, it is probably too much to expect for him to grow that rapidly in such a short period of time. Finally, Emmanuel Sander’s strength is his route running and he’ll help the team win this season, but with a fairly low fantasy ceiling as his ability to air walk will finally come to a close.
