Golf Betting Tips
It’s time for some exciting playoff action over the next three weeks with the first leg starting up this week with the players competing at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Since 2007, this event has been the first playoff event played each and every year – it has been THE NORTHERN TRUST for four years so far and it began as The Barclays with multiple courses being used throughout its history. The PGA Tour is in New Jersey this week at Liberty National Golf Club with a field of 124 players, it should be 125 but Louis Oosthuizen withdrew due to a sore neck, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 on Friday will move on to play the weekend rounds.
There’s $9.5M available to be won this week, the winner receives $1.71M and also pulls down a huge 2,000 FedEx Cup points. THE NORTHERN TRUST has Liberty National Golf Club as its course this week, we last saw it used just two years ago for this tournament – it’s a 7,410-yard track, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this event over the past decade is -15.9, the winning scores at this course specifically when it was used in 2019, 2013, and 2009 were -16, -11, and -9 respectively, and the event record was achieved last year by Dustin Johnson when he shot an insane -30 at TPC Boston. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid approach players, who do well off the tee, who are crafty around the green, can scramble well, and score well on long par 4’s.
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Questions I have regarding THE NORTHERN TRUST as it relates to betting on players this week:
1. So many options but only a limited amount of betting money to deploy? There are a ton of elite players in the field and it’s hard to figure out which ones to bet on since so many are in great form right now. It’s a tough call on how many golfers to bet this week and how to bet them, especially with outright wagers where at least 20 players could absolutely win this week.
2. Will a bubble player pop? Last year we saw Mackenzie Hughes play very well in the playoffs to really rocket up the standings and into the final tournament where only the top 30 get in. This year I wonder which player or players will emerge from being 100+ in the standings right now to get inside the top 70 and be eligible to play next week. When betting this week, look at the players who are playing well right now but are well outside the top 70, because some of those golfers could really pop this week if they are motivated to keep their seasons alive.
3. To Rahm or not to Rahm? We haven’t seen Rahm for a month or so since he tested positive for COVID-19 and had to withdraw from the Olympics, so I wonder how his bout with the virus went and how much practicing he has been doing. I think he will be as good as ever this week, but there’s a chance that we only see his B-game.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+800) – It’s hard to not place some sort of a bet on Rahm this week as he has been so outstanding this season from start to finish with twelve top 10’s if you count the Zurich Classic in 18 events between the PGA Tour and European Tour. He plays almost every week like he’s in a video game and his stats reflect that. In just four NORTHERN TRUST tournaments he has two T3’s and a T6, and one of those T3’s came two years ago at Liberty National. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 5, AND to finish top 10 this week – the only knock against him is we haven’t seen him play in a month or so since testing positive for COVID-19, so he could show some rust and with that in mind you may want to refrain from betting him to win outright.
Jordan Spieth (+1200) – Over the last six months or so we have witnessed Spieth completely turn his career around with almost two-thirds of his last 15 events going for top 9’s and he won the Texas Open in April. His stats are almost too good to believe, and his history at this event has been incredible too with three top 10’s in the last five years including a runner-up in 2017, and he was T6 at Liberty National two years ago. I think betting him to finish top 5 and/or top 10 makes a ton of sense, and you can bet him outright if you smell a victory coming for the elite Texan dynamo.
Avoid: Justin Thomas (+2500) – Since winning THE PLAYERS Championship back in mid-March we haven’t really seen Thomas do what he normally does which is finish consistently in the top 10 – in fact, he has none of them in his last eleven starts. He does have a good track record at this tournament over the years though and had a T12 on this track two years ago, but I’m more of a recent form kind of better and I sure as heck don’t like what I see coming from JT these days.
+2600 to +5000
Harris English (+4000) – With two wins in 2021 – one of them coming in his last three starts at the Travelers Championship, three top 4’s in his last four starts, and eight top 10’s on the campaign, English has been surprisingly one of the best players in the world this season. I think a top 10 bet on Harris this week is where I would place my chips, you could do a top 5 wager if you’re super-bullish on him, but I like him in the top 10 range.
Scottie Scheffler (+2800) – Scheffler seems to come up big for the largest events and the proof is in the last three major tournaments at The Open Championship where he was T8, he came in T7 at the U.S. Open, and had another T8 at the PGA Championship. He has five top 14’s in his last six events, one of which was on the European Tour in a star-studded event at the Scottish Open, and he finished T4 at this event a year ago – his first PGA Tour win really could happen this week. I think you could bet him to finish top 10 this week and do quite well, and you could also do a top 20 bet too if you want to hedge your bet a bit.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+4000) – Reed won this event two years ago so I would like to be on him this week, but I can’t ignore what he has been doing recently as he hasn’t had a top 10 since the Memorial Tournament in June, and he has lost almost 10 strokes in ball-striking to the field over his last two events played at the Olympics and at the WGC tournament two weeks ago. There’s an outside chance that he finds some magic here again this week on a course he’s won on, but I would play the wait-and-see game with Reed for now.
+5100 to +10000
Jhonattan Vegas (+10000) – Vegas has been playing some excellent golf since his T9 at the Byron Nelson in May – since then he has two runner-ups, and has six top 16’s in his last eight events. He just keeps ball-striking his way to success, and I really like him as a top 20 bet this week – bet him accordingly.
Russell Henley (+6500) – Henley is cooking up a storm once again over his past five tournaments played with four finishes inside the top 19, and he’s coming off a T7 last week at the Wyndham Championship where he gained strokes in all of the major stat categories. I love my solid approach players and Russell is one of the better players that the PGA Tour has to offer, and has gained at least 6 strokes in two out of his last four events. I also like that he had a T8 at this event last year albeit on a different course, but he’s a solid bet to finish top 20 this week I do believe.
Avoid: Tyrrell Hatton (+5500) – Hatton had a runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship so it looked like he was gaining steam, but then he missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and The Open Championship so he lost that momentum in a hurry. He finished T59 here two years ago and while I do think he will do better this time around, he could struggle to finish top 30 and I just don’t see any betting value in him this week.
+11000 and higher
Maverick McNealy (+15000) – If you’re looking for a consistent player who’s down a bunch on the betting board then take a peek at McNealy as he has finished top 30 in six straight events and top 18 in his past three starts. The tournaments he’s played in aren’t marquee ones by any means, but his stats are looking good and he could rattle off another top 30 again this week to extend that streak to seven straight starts. You could do a top 20 bet on him this week – I would look closer at the top 30 range though and bet him that way.
Roger Sloan (+15000) – Sloan’s finishes are trending in the right direction over his last five outings with a T71, a T31, a T16, a T6, and he was a co-runner-up last week after losing in a playoff to Kevin Kisner. I don’t think we will see him do better this week than last week to keep that improvement going for a sixth straight event as that means he would have to win, but I would feel comfortable with placing a top 30 wager on him.
Avoid: Keegan Bradley (+13000) – I was all over Bradley from March to late May as he was consistently putting up solid finishes including a runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship, but things have gone downhill really fast for him since finishing T17 at the PGA Championship as he has three missed cuts in his last five starts. He has never really done that well at this event over the years either as his best finish since 2011 was a T29, so there’s no reason to bet anything on Keegan this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
