Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Take advantage of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for THE NORTHERN TRUST, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
THE NORTHERN TRUST
Recap from last week: It was a tough week for many of us in the DFS community at the Wyndham Championship as many good golfers failed to play the weekend, and lots of traditionally bad golfers seem to thrive. Congrats to Kevin Kisner who won in a playoff over five other players to net his first win since 2019.
Preview for THE NORTHERN TRUST: The 2020-2021 playoffs are here with the first leg, THE NORTHERN TRUST, on full display this week! This will be the fifth year that we have seen THE NORTHERN TRUST, prior was The Barclays starting in 2007 when the PGA Tour playoffs were first introduced. This event originally started back in 1967 when it was named the Westchester Classic and Jack Nicklaus won – it evolved over the years to become what it is today, the first tournament in the playoffs and one of the most significant events on the PGA Tour. Since 2007, this tournament has been played at a few different courses – this year has it back at Liberty National in New Jersey and we saw this course just two years ago when Patrick Reed won this event for the second time, his first win came in 2016 when he was victorious at the Bethpage Black Course in New York. Winners at THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays over the past five years include Dustin Johnson in 2020, Patrick Reed in 2019, Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Dustin Johnson in 2017, and Patrick Reed in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $9.5M, the winner receives $1.71M and also earns himself a massive 2,000 FedEx Cup points which is the equivalent of four average tournament wins in points, so playoff events are huge.
Course and key stats: Liberty National Golf Club is 7,410 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays over the past decade ranges from -9 to -30, so it’s largely dictated by which course is used. Dustin Johnson completely destroyed the field and tournament record a year ago at TPC Boston when he won by 11 strokes over Harris English, Patrick Reed won on this course in 2019 with a -16, Adam Scott won on this track in 2013 with a -11, and Heath Slocum was the other winner on this course in 2009 when he won with a score of -9. Some of the core key stats to include in your custom models this week are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: around the green, scrambling gained, and par 4’s gained from 450-500 yards.
The field: We have a very strong field on tap this week because many of the world’s top players are also inside the top 124 in the FedExCup standings – the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 advance to play weekend golf for round 3 and round 4. We will have the world’s top-ranked player, Jon Rahm, back after he tested positive for COVID-19 and was unable to compete at the Olympics and beyond, three-time winner of this event Dustin Johnson is here, FedExCup point leader Collin Morikawa is set to do battle, and the list goes on and on – it’s a major tournament field, really. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Three questions I have about THE NORTHERN TRUST this week:
1. Will the #1 ranked player in the world show some rust? Jon Rahm was planning on competing for Spain at the Olympics but was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19 again. We haven’t seen him for a month now when he placed T3 at The Open Championship, so he could have a slow start this week, or he could come out guns a-blazin’ if he has been practicing a ton as per usual – he did finish T3 here two years ago and could have another huge result again this year.
2. Will any golfers who are high up on the FedExCup standings withdraw? We have seen in the past where a player or two who’s near the top of the FedExCup standings withdraws to gear up for the final two playoff tournaments, and it could happen this year. Be sure to keep an eye on the field in case a player or players decide to sit this one out and rest for next week’s BMW Championship. Louis Oosthuizen states that he is dealing with a neck injury and as a result, withdrew from last week’s Wyndham Championship, and is out again this week so the field is currently at 124 without him in it.
3. Will another elite player win again this week? We typically see star players win this event – Hunter Mahan won in 2014, but other than that, big-name players typically take the cake at this tournament.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We have a small field this week in terms of it being a cut-based tournament with 124 players to build our lineups with, so you can get more aggressive than you normally would when 156 players are in play and a smaller percentage of the field makes the cut line. See which players are projected to have high ownership numbers on Wednesday and look for good pivots where you can, as duplicate lineups are a very real factor this week for larger GPPs. Leave AT LEAST $300-$500 on the table for the featured GPPS if your goal is to win one of them outright.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.5K) – The world’s top-ranked golfer has had a couple of COVID-19 bouts to deal with since early June, but he won the U.S. Open shortly after testing positive the first time, and there’s a decent chance he could win again this week after his second positive test. He won the U.S. Open three starts ago, he would have won the Memorial Tournament in the start prior had he not been forced to withdraw with COVID-19, and he has a ridiculous eleven top 9’s on the campaign (which includes one on the European Tour) – twelve if you count the Zurich Classic. He has been very strong at this tournament in the four times that he’s competed at it, including his T3 two years ago when it was held at Liberty National, and I expect another elite finish again this year. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T6, 2019 – T3, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T3.
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – There aren’t many players better in the world since February than Spieth when he seemed to flip the switch pretty much overnight – eight top 9’s have been recorded over his last fifteen starts including his win at the Texas Open in April. His stats have been incredibly strong over the last six months as he has been gaining strokes like crazy across all categories most weeks that he plays. He had a T6 here two years ago, and I can envision something similar happening again for him this week. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T6, 2018 – T25, 2017 – T2, and 2016 – T10.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Morikawa has two wins on the campaign, both coming in his last ten starts if you exclude the Zurich Classic which I do, and he has nine top 8’s in his last fifteen starts. There might be some concern with his approach game over his last two starts as he lost 1.53 strokes at the Olympics and was a flat 0.00 in his most recent start at the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational, but he can turn things around in a hurry and I expect the approach phenom to be back at it again this week. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T52.
The $9K Range
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – Ancer was outstanding two weeks ago to win the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational – his first PGA Tour win in his career and I doubt it will be his last. He’s statistically sound across all categories, except his around the green play could use some work, but he did gain almost 3 strokes at the WGC event to help him win, so that’s a big positive going forward. He has lots of excellent finishes this season including seven top 10’s, and he finished runner-up to Patrick Reed here two years ago, so what’s not to like?! THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T2, and 2018 – Cut.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – One of these weeks it’s all going to come up Millhouse for Scheffler to secure his first PGA Tour win, and it could be this week. He has seven top 8’s since February including three straight at the most recent majors, and eight if you count the Zurich Classic, and he just keeps ball-striking and grinding to earn high finishes on a regular basis. In his first career playoff start last year he had a T4 at this event, and could do something along those same lines this week albeit on a different course. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T4.
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – With three top 8’s in his last four starts including a T5 at the WGC event two weeks ago, at The Open Championship, and the U.S. Open, Berger is officially on fire. His biggest attribute is his approach game where he has gained strokes in twelve straight tournaments including almost 10 at the WGC in his most recent start, and I expect another great showing from him this week also. He won at Pebble Beach in mid-February, has eight top 10’s on the season, and had a T3 at this event last year – there’s nothing to dislike about him and his game right now. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T3, 2018 – T15, 2017 – T33, and 2016 – T70.
The $8K Range
Harris English (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – English has two wins this year in 2021, has been very strong over his last four events with three top 4’s including winning the Travelers Championship three starts ago, and has eight top 6’s this season. I think he could easily be a few hundred dollars more expensive and it would barely affect his ownership, if at all – he’s the best mid-tier value play by a landslide in my opinion. Oh, and he finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson at this event last year, so there’s that, as well. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T2, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T60.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – Casey is a very consistent player who also often puts up superb finishes – he has four top 7’s in his last six tournaments played, has eight top 10’s this season including a T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and his worst finish over his last seven starts is a T36. We were waiting for his putter to wake up and boy did it ever at the WGC two weeks ago where he gained 7 strokes with the flat stick – even if he gains just 1 or 2 strokes with the putter this week, watch out, as the rest of his game is very solid. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T49, 2018 – T60, 2017 – T5, and 2016 – T31.
Adam Scott (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Scott was the 2013 winner of The Barclays when it was played right here at Liberty National and he followed that up with a T5 in 2019 – safe to say that he likes this course and it shows with his outstanding results. He struts into this week with confidence too as he’s coming off a T2 last week where he gained almost 7 strokes with his approach game, and gained in all major stat categories. He’s peaking at the right time and must be licking his lips to see if he can snag another top 5 on this track. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T58, 2019 – T5, 2018 – T5, and 2016 – T4.
The $7K Range
Ian Poulter (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – I don’t really like how Poulter conducts business since he relies heavily on his short game to get things done, but he has gained at least 3 strokes in the stat category in eleven out of his last twelve starts, and it’s likely twelve in his last thirteen since there’s no shot link data from The Open Championship where he finished T26. He has two top 10’s in his last six events including a T10 at the WGC event two weeks ago and a T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge six starts ago, and has finished no worse than T40 over his last seven tournaments played. I also like that he had a top 10 finish here two years ago thanks to gaining 7.25 strokes with his approach game, so it could pop somewhat again this week – if it does and his strong short game stays intact, then he could easily enjoy another top 10 result. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T39, 2019 – T10, 2018 – T48, and 2017 – T66.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – Golf life has been very enjoyable for Vegas since mid-May as he has two runner-ups, a T9, and six out of his last eight starts have been top 16’s. He has gained strokes with his ball-striking in twelve straight events which used shot link technology and has been putting very well as of late too which is big for him since he used to regularly lose strokes on the green. He had a T38 here two years ago but his game is much stronger now, and I project him to finish top 25 – not bad at all, especially given his low price tag. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T38, 2018 – T15, 2017 – T3, and 2016 – T22.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – Power went on a power trip prior to finishing T60 last week as he had six straight top 19’s, and four of them were top 9’s including winning the Barbasol Championship two starts ago. He was a bit rusty last week but he did take a month off, so that was expected, and I believe we will see him playing quite well again this week as he did from mid-May to mid-July. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T34.
The $6K Range
Roger Sloan (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Sloan now has back-to-back top 6’s including his T2 last week, has five top 31’s over his last six starts, and has only missed the cut once over his last ten tournaments played. I also like that he has gained at least 6 strokes with his ball-striking over his last three starts, has gained strokes with his putter in four out of his last five starts, and gained around the green in seven out of his last eight starts. If you are playing a bunch of stars and scrubs lineups this week, then put Sloan in at least two or three of them. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T64.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – McNealy doesn’t have a top 10 since his T4 at the RBC Heritage in April, but he has been very consistent in his last six starts as he has been inside the top 30 each and every time. His stats check out quite well during his good six-tournament stretch, and he’s a fairly decent play in the $6K range this week. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T61.
Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $6.3K) – Things were going beautifully for Lebioda before he had to tend to a family emergency and withdraw from the 3M Open as he had three straight top 8’s, and had made the cut in seven straight events – the 3M Open would have been his eighth straight. He missed the cut on the number last week, but should be back into the swing of things now after being away from professional golf for three weeks. He still comes with some risk, of course, but if you really want to go hard with some juicy stars and scrub configurations, then look to Lebioda to open up some big opportunities for you at the top of the board. THE NORTHERN TRUST/The Barclays finishes over the last five years: None.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s Wyndham Championship
The 10K+ Range
- Webb Simpson – T7
- Louis Oosthuizen – Withdrew
- Hideki Matsuyama – Cut
The $9K Range
- Russell Henley – T7
- Si Woo Kim – T2
- Brian Harman – Cut
The $8K Range
- Seamus Power – T60
- Gary Woodland – Cut
- Charl Schwartzel – Cut
The $7K Range
- Jhonattan Vegas – T15
- Mito Pereira – Cut
- Hank Lebioda – Cut
The $6K Range
- Roger Sloan – T2
- Jim Herman – Cut
- Scott Stallings – Cut
