Fantasy Football Boom or Bust Players

7 Boom or Bust Fantasy Players

Football fans that are willing to put in a little work and prepare for draft day can generally build competitive rosters that more often than not qualify for the playoffs. But building a championship roster often requires taking calculated risks. 

That’s especially true in daily football and leagues that have more teams competing for the title. Targeting these boom or bust risky players is a bit of a gamble but getting those picks correct can make all the difference in December and January. 

For fantasy football managers that aren’t afraid to differentiate themselves from the crowd and take a bit of a risk/reward strategy, here are seven boom or bust options to consider ahead of the 2021 fantasy football draft season. 

PPR ADP data 

D’Andre Swift

RB – Detroit Lions (ADP 32 RB19)

Longtime fantasy managers have seen this song and dance before. Swift is just the latest in a long line of next Detroit running backs. Despite that history of mediocrity, Swift is being selected in the second round of many fantasy drafts, which is an expensive gamble to take on a back that the team itself doesn’t even necessarily seem sold on. 

The Lions signed Jamaal Williams to a two-year, $7.5 million deal, and new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has intimated that Williams will be the club’s starter. This could be hyperbole, But Williams has three-down ability, and the Lions seemed hesitant to use Swift in a featured role last season, choosing to give the bulk of their rushing attempts to 35-year-old veteran Adrian Peterson. 

But when Swift got opportunities, he was quite impressive. In the six games Swift received double-digit carries, he averaged 98.5 scrimmage yards and scored six touchdowns. 

Of course, this is a new staff in the Motor City, so there’s no telling how the club will utilize their backs this early. Training camp will be telling but until then, Swift remains a tantalizing talent with an RB1 ceiling and a precipitous floor.

Kyle Pitts

TE – Atlanta Falcons (ADP 51.5 TE5)

Unquestionably an elite prospect, some NFL Draft analysts considered the No. 4 overall pick the top athlete in a loaded 2021 class and, perhaps, the top tight end ever scouted. Pitts (6-6, 240) is huge, ran a 99th-percentile 4.44 40-yard dash, and was highly productive at Florida. By landing in Atlanta with a Falcon’s offense that has finished top-5 in passing in each of the past five seasons, many fantasy managers think Pitts has the talent to overcome the adage of first-year tight end struggling to acclimate to the NFL game. 

Pitts should certainly get plenty of targets early. After the Falcons traded Julio Jones to Tennessee, Atlanta has 213 targets unaccounted for, including nearly one-quarter of their red-zone throws from 2020. Throughout OTAs, QB Matt Ryan has heavily targeted Pitts, who has been seen lining out wide as a wide receiver. Regardless how whether he is running routes in-line or from the perimeter, Pitts is a nightmare mismatch, especially when single-covered by smaller defensive backs. 

The considerable hype that has followed Pitts has transferred to his ADP, where he is often being selected ahead of Mark Andrews. Taking an early shot on a rookie tight end has inevitably been a poor return on investment, but Pitts doesn’t appear to be any ordinary first-year player. He has the potential to be a massive cheat code if Atlanta uses him as a receiver, which looks likely. 

Tyler Lockett

WR – Seattle Seahawks (ADP 60.9 WR24)

Lockett recorded his first 100-catch season a year ago but 2020 was a tale of two campaigns. After an incredible 15/200/3 explosion at Arizona in Week 7, Lockett was averaging 23.2 PPR points per contest but then the bottom fell out for Lockett and Seattle’s offense. Lockett failed to eclipse 90 yards again all season and was actually held to eight or fewer PPR points in 6 of the club’s remaining 11 games. 

Anybody who made an untimely trade to acquire Lockett as their WR1/2 in the first half undoubtedly wants nothing to do with him in 2021 but which Lockett will show up? Lockett has produced three consecutive top-20 PPR seasons, eclipsed 1,000 yards in back-to-back campaigns, and scored 28 times dating back to 2018. If those averages play out, Lockett looks like a steal at his currently deflated WR24 ADP. 

Pete Carroll dismissed Brian Schottenheimer and hired Shane Waldron as the play-caller. Balance should return to Seattle so that run-heavy approach we saw in the second half of 2020 could very well carry over into 2021. That will inevitably lead to fewer targets for Lockett, especially around the red zone, where Lockett caught 8 of his 10 scores. 

While Lockett has been a dependable WR2 over the past three years, he’s also posted plenty of forgettable weekly outings and that could continue in Seattle’s new offensive system. That makes Lockett a bit riskier in 2021 than fantasy football fans are accustomed to. 

Brandon Aiyuk

WR-  San Francisco 49ers (ADP 66.9 WR26)

Aiyuk enters his sophomore campaign with a ton of momentum. He’s one of the hottest names in early drafts and is regularly being nabbed in the fifth or sixth rounds. A lot of that hype comes off the heels of the red-hot second-half numbers Aiyuk put up during his rookie season, where he was a top-12 fantasy option in PPR points per game. 

Volume, of course, was a huge part of that. In San Francisco’s final seven contests, Aiyuk averaged 10.1 targets, 6.6 grabs, and 83.3 receiving yards. Extrapolated out to a 17-game pace and that’s a ridiculous 172 targets, 112 receptions, 1,416 yards, and 10 TDs. Those numbers aren’t sustainable but Aiyuk has remained fresh in the minds of the fantasy community all offseason and flashed superstar skills. He should only improve if No. 3 overall pick QB Trey Lance turns out to be the prospect that Kyle Shanahan is betting on. 

However, Aiyuk was so heavily featured in San Francisco’s offense because George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Raheem Mostert missed so much time a year ago. If the 49ers enter Week 1 fully healthy, as expected, Aiyuk could struggle to get anywhere near that volume as the third option in an offense that is a good bet to also have a top-10 rushing attack. 

There’s obviously a ton of upside and potential in Aiyuk but his redraft status is a bit questionable. He’s being drafted at his ceiling and looks like a big risk when you consider he’s being drafted ahead of his own team’s No. 1 option (Samuel) and consistent targets hogs like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, and Robby Anderson.

James Conner

RB – Arizona Cardinals (ADP 82.8 RB36)

2020 wasn’t a great year for Conner in Pittsburgh, but he still averaged a respectable 12.7 PPR points per game, which was 29th among running backs and 2.6 more than new teammate Chase Edmonds. Conner also accumulated those stats behind a porous Steelers’ line and now joins an Arizona squad that is considerably better in both run and pass blocking. 

While Edmonds is being targeted by the fantasy community as the Cardinals’ starter, Edmonds isn’t built to be a between-the-tackles threat. At 6-1 and 233 pounds, Conner looks like the best bet to be the main runner and short-yardage option for an Arizona offense that netted 10 carries from their opponent’s 1-yard line last season. Last year when Pittsburgh needed one yard to score or keep a drive alive, Conner cashed in 12-of-16 attempts. Edmonds was only successful on 2-of-6 carries. 

The Cardinals will most likely trot out a committee with Conner taking the majority of carries and Edmonds as the main receiver. But Conner is a capable pass-catcher in his own right and could still snag 30-plus balls. As always, the biggest concern with Conner is health. He’s missed multiple games in each of his four pro seasons. 

If Arizona’s backfield develops this way, Conner looks like a tremendous value in the seventh round of fantasy drafts, especially for Zero-RB drafters. However, if Conner gets hurt early or has trouble acclimating to a new offense, Edmonds could seize control of the backfield and relegate Conner to change-of-pace duties. 

Jalen Hurts

QB – Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 87.9 QB11)

Philadelphia was decimated by injuries last season, particularly to their offensive line. This led to lots of sacks, turnovers, and an abandonment of the ground game. With Carson Wentz out, Jalen Hurts takes over as the Eagles’ starter after a four-game stint to wind down that failed 2020 season.

The Eagles also hired Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen to run the offense, which is good news for Hurts fans. In those four starts Hurts made during his rookie season, he topped 300 passing yards twice, averaged 68 rushing yards per game, and had two top-10 fantasy weeks. With an aggressive new scheme and an improved group of young skill-position players, Hurts certainly could be poised to post QB1 numbers, with top-5 upside. 

However, there certainly were concerns as a passer. Hurts displayed erratic accuracy, threw only five touchdowns in those four starts, and committed six fumbles. He’ll also be learning an entirely new offense predicated on pin-point timing and more emphasis on reads and shorter throws. Sirianni also seemed coy about committing to Hurts as the team’s long-term answer and the Eagles were rumored to be in the market for one of the vaunted 2021 rookie signal-callers. 

Hurts did enough as a runner to warrant QB considerations, but there’s also plenty of downside to his game that makes him awfully risky in the seventh or eighth round when the quarterback position is chock full of dependable fantasy options like Ryan Tannehill, Matthew Stafford, and Matt Ryan that can often be drafted multiple rounds later. 

Mike Williams

WR – Los Angeles Chargers (ADP 127.4 WR48)

The Chargers brought in Joe Lombardi to run the offense and expectations are that Williams will man the coveted X-receiver spot in Lombardi’s scheme. Lombardi spent five seasons under Sean Payton in New Orleans and also coaxed a 13-game 71/1,077/8 campaign out of Calvin Johnson as Detroit’s play-caller back in 2014. 

Most recently, Michael Thomas parlayed that X-receiver spot into fantasy goodness with the Saints. While Williams isn’t in the same caliber as Thomas or Megatron, he has the size (6-4, 220) downfield ability (led NFL with 20.4 YPC in 2019) to be a real problem in a potent Los Angeles offense that beefed up their offensive line. Williams, still just 26, has already topped 1,000 receiving yards and scored 10 touchdowns in his four seasons all without even surpassing 89 targets. 

Conversely, Williams has thrived as a deep threat and that new role could see him featured closer to the line of scrimmage. The Chargers also signed TE Jared Cook and used a third-round pick on promising Tennessee rookie Josh Palmer. Throw in a healthy Austin Ekeler and Williams could still struggle to top that 90-target plateau. 

Any significant increase in opportunities could thrust Williams back into the weekly WR2/3 conversation, but if he can’t capitalize in a new offense, Williams could be just another frustrating boom-or-bust depth pick clogging up valuable fantasy roster spots.