QB Forecasts

Josh Allen 2022 Outlook: Reigning QB1 On Track To Defend Title

The magic that is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen took the NFL by storm once again in 2021. Some might have thought the former first-round pick was due for regression after being named to the Pro Bowl, finishing second in MVP voting, and signing a big extension. Nope. Instead, he bounced back with 409 completions, 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He remained a threat on the ground, adding 763 yards and six scores with his legs. Despite playing all 17 games, he still posted a career-low 26 sacks. Allen finished the year as the QB1 in fantasy. He led the league in fantasy points (417.6) and fantasy points per game (24.6) while finishing third in fantasy points per dropback (0.58). Although Allen didn't have the best advanced football metrics, he continued to show impressive strides as a passer. He made better decisions about when to throw, run, or even just take a sack. He also dismantled some of the best defenses in the league, securing the Bills' second consecutive AFC East title before taking Patrick Mahomes on an incredible back-and-forth clash in the AFC Championship. The Bills may have lost Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders this offseason, but their absences coincide with the timely breakouts of Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox as well as the key additions of Jamison Crowder and O.J. Howard in free agency. Buffalo also drafted running back James Cook, whose youth and prowess in the backfield should take additional pressure off Allen and allow the offense to thrive. He is the consensus QB1 heading into the 2022 fantasy football season and should be your top target if you're looking to draft a quarterback early.

Justin Herbert 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Making The Case To Be Fantasy's Top QB In 2022

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert followed his fantastic rookie year with a terrific sophomore campaign. The 24-year-old completed 443-of-672 pass attempts for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns while rushing for 302 yards and three scores over 17 games in 2021. He improved as a passer and was the most consistent fantasy QB last season. Herbert was fifth in air yards thrown (5,075), fourth in air yards completed (2,628), and finished as a fantasy QB1 (65%) 11 times last year. The Chargers' high-octane offense remains intact this season. Star running back Austin Ekeler, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are all returning, but the team did replace last year's starting tight end Jared Cook with Gerald Everett. Los Angeles also drafted right-guard Zion Johnson to improve the offensive line. There will be stability as the Chargers had no changes to the coaching staff as head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi are running it back. Rotoballer's top-ranked quarterback Josh Allen lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and top weapons wide receivers, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. At the same time, Rotoballer's No. 2 ranked signal-caller Patrick Mahomes lost star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Everything is set up for Herbert to be this year's top fantasy quarterback. Herbert is currently ranked third in the latest Rotoballer rankings. Still, with the offseason changes to Allen and Mahomes, the former No.6 pick overall could leap as the top fantasy quarterback in 2022.

Patrick Mahomes 2022 Outlook: Finally Overvalued In Fantasy

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has caused many late-round quarterback drafters to reevaluate their strategy since he first lit the league on fire in 2018. The 26-year-old's performance has not only ranked among the leaders at his position but has provided week-winning upside with a low bust rate in his four years as a starter. He has failed to throw for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in only 10 of his 61 games since assuming the starting role, five of which came during a slump last year. Over those four years, he has finished as the QB1, QB7, QB4, and QB4, with the QB7 finish in 2019 resulting from two and a half missed games and culminating in a Super Bowl win. The question for Mahomes is how he and the offense will function with the departure of wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami, and the additions of wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and rookie Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce remains a stalwart at tight end but will be turning 33. All of these question marks make it difficult to warrant Mahomes' ADP just inside the top 50 as the QB2, especially with so much value at the position.

Lamar Jackson 2022 NFL Player Outlook: Return To Greatness

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had the worst season of his career in 2021, finishing as the QB16, primarily because he only played in 11 total games. The 25-year-old still managed quality production with 2,882 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, 767 rushing yards, and two rushing scores, which would have been a full season pace of 4,083 yards and 23 touchdowns passing along with 1,086 yards and three touchdowns rushing. Compared to seven in 2019 and 2020, the two rushing touchdowns stand out as an area to expect positive regression in. Despite missing time, the 2018 first-round pick finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback three times, including a No. 1 overall finish. The 2019 NFL MVP is the most athletic rusher in the NFL, evidenced by his highlight reel runs and yards per attempt finishes of first in 2019, first in 2020, and third in 2021 among all players. He also led all quarterbacks in rushing yards the past three seasons. Additionally, the Baltimore Ravens averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game last season, their highest since 2016, which could signal an increase in passing volume moving forward. Jackson is a lock for 1,000 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, providing a distinct advantage over every other quarterback, and while it's unlikely Jackson passes the ball 36 times per game, expect 3,000+ passing yards and 25+ passing touchdowns, making him a top-five quarterback, with number one overall potential. Jackson is currently ranked 5th in Rotoballer's rankings with an ADP of 57 overall, allowing you to bolster your roster with elite talent at other positions before drafting him as your quarterback, making him the optimal target.

Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook: Dual-Threat Quarterback Has Overall QB1 Upside in Year Three

Jalen Hurts has been fantasy football gold his first two seasons in the NFL. As a rookie, he finished as QB7 on a per-game basis, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game (PPG) in four starts. In 2021, he finished as QB6, averaging 21.4 PPG. But last year was a tale of two seasons for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Between Weeks 1 and 7, they passed nearly 60% of the time. From Week 8 on, however, they passed just 41.5%. A complete 180 in terms of a game plan, which actually suppressed Hurts' fantasy value. In his first seven games, he averaged 25 PPG, while in his last eight games he averaged just 18.3 PPG. 18.3 PPG was still good for QB10 on a per-game basis during that stretch, but his upside was capped. Even still, it's clear to see that his rushing ability gives him an extremely safe floor at the quarterback position. In fact, he's scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in a game in just three of his 19 career starts because he's averaged 55.6 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Now let's project forward to 2022. Shane Steichen will be taking over offensive playcalling duties from Nick Sirianni. In 2020, he was the offensive coordinator calling plays for the Los Angeles Chargers, who led the league in plays per game (70.4). Even if it's a 50/50 run/pass split, that would mean Hurts still airs it out 35 times per game. When he did that in 2021, he was an elite fantasy QB1. What else happened this offseason? Oh, you know, the Eagles just went out and traded for Hurts' best friend, who also just so happens to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in A.J. Brown. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert form one of the best pass-catching trios in the league that should enable Jalen Hurts to take his game to the next level in Year Three. At worst, he's a low-end QB1. At best, he's the overall QB1 in fantasy football.