QB Forecasts

Patrick Mahomes II 2023 Outlook: Overall QB1 Upside Once Again

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II proved he didn't need Tyreek Hill to be a fantasy superstar in 2022, as the MVP passed for 5,250 yards, tossed 41 touchdowns, and rushed for an additional four touchdowns. Mahomes finished as the QB1 in overall fantasy points (428.4) and QB2 in fantasy points per game (25.2). Ultimately, he produced video game numbers in the first season many doubted him since Hill was traded to Miami, so he's a locked-in top-three fantasy quarterback until further notice. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are also contenders to be the QB1 next season, but it's tough to argue against drafting Mahomes as the first quarterback off the board. Kansas City lost JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason, but the team expects Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice to fill in the gaps for what should be a top NFL offense once again in 2023.

Jalen Hurts 2022 Outlook: Dual-Threat Quarterback Has Overall QB1 Upside in Year Three

Jalen Hurts has been fantasy football gold his first two seasons in the NFL. As a rookie, he finished as QB7 on a per-game basis, averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game (PPG) in four starts. In 2021, he finished as QB6, averaging 21.4 PPG. But last year was a tale of two seasons for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. Between Weeks 1 and 7, they passed nearly 60% of the time. From Week 8 on, however, they passed just 41.5%. A complete 180 in terms of a game plan, which actually suppressed Hurts' fantasy value. In his first seven games, he averaged 25 PPG, while in his last eight games he averaged just 18.3 PPG. 18.3 PPG was still good for QB10 on a per-game basis during that stretch, but his upside was capped. Even still, it's clear to see that his rushing ability gives him an extremely safe floor at the quarterback position. In fact, he's scored fewer than 16 fantasy points in a game in just three of his 19 career starts because he's averaged 55.6 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Now let's project forward to 2022. Shane Steichen will be taking over offensive playcalling duties from Nick Sirianni. In 2020, he was the offensive coordinator calling plays for the Los Angeles Chargers, who led the league in plays per game (70.4). Even if it's a 50/50 run/pass split, that would mean Hurts still airs it out 35 times per game. When he did that in 2021, he was an elite fantasy QB1. What else happened this offseason? Oh, you know, the Eagles just went out and traded for Hurts' best friend, who also just so happens to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in A.J. Brown. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert form one of the best pass-catching trios in the league that should enable Jalen Hurts to take his game to the next level in Year Three. At worst, he's a low-end QB1. At best, he's the overall QB1 in fantasy football.

Josh Allen 2022 Outlook: Reigning QB1 On Track To Defend Title

The magic that is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen took the NFL by storm once again in 2021. Some might have thought the former first-round pick was due for regression after being named to the Pro Bowl, finishing second in MVP voting, and signing a big extension. Nope. Instead, he bounced back with 409 completions, 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He remained a threat on the ground, adding 763 yards and six scores with his legs. Despite playing all 17 games, he still posted a career-low 26 sacks. Allen finished the year as the QB1 in fantasy. He led the league in fantasy points (417.6) and fantasy points per game (24.6) while finishing third in fantasy points per dropback (0.58). Although Allen didn't have the best advanced football metrics, he continued to show impressive strides as a passer. He made better decisions about when to throw, run, or even just take a sack. He also dismantled some of the best defenses in the league, securing the Bills' second consecutive AFC East title before taking Patrick Mahomes on an incredible back-and-forth clash in the AFC Championship. The Bills may have lost Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders this offseason, but their absences coincide with the timely breakouts of Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox as well as the key additions of Jamison Crowder and O.J. Howard in free agency. Buffalo also drafted running back James Cook, whose youth and prowess in the backfield should take additional pressure off Allen and allow the offense to thrive. He is the consensus QB1 heading into the 2022 fantasy football season and should be your top target if you're looking to draft a quarterback early.

Lamar Jackson 2023 Outlook: Passing Ceiling To Finally Be Unlocked?

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been nothing short of a fantasy football superstar since becoming the starter, but his passing ceiling has been limited and his injury woes continue to pile up. However, the Ravens moved on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman and hired former University of Georgia OC Todd Monken with hopes of transforming the offense into a more pass-happy attack. The team added Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers this offseason and will get Rashod Bateman (foot) back to go along with one of the best tight ends in the NFL in Mark Andrews. All that said, this should be Jackson's best group of weapons of his career. His career-high 3,127 single-season passing yards is far below the average full-time starter in the NFL, so he'll look to inch closer to the 4,000-yard mark in 2023. His rushing upside could be reduced with fewer designed runs, but he'll continue to be one of the elite scramblers in the league. Ultimately, his passing efficiency and touchdown-upside could make up for slightly less rushing attempts, so he remains a sure-fire QB1 in fantasy football with top-five upside at the position.

Joe Burrow 2023 NFL Player Outlook: Record Contract Extension Coming?

2023 is the last year that the Cincinnati Bengals will have quarterback Joe Burrow on the cheap via his rookie deal. While it does seem inevitable a deal will get done between the two sides, how big will it be? Per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, Burrow should agree to a percentage of the salary each year to compensate for it going up. Nonetheless, the contract extension talks shouldn't impact Burrow's fantasy outlook for 2023. Even without a ton of rushing upside, Burrow should still be viewed as a Top 5-7 quarterback for fantasy in 2023. The Bengals ran 11 personnel at an 82% rate in 2022, good for the second-highest in the NFL. With Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and some improvements on the offensive line, it's hard not to see the Bengals' offense as a potent foe for 2023. In the two seasons combined Burrow has averaged 4500+ passing yards and 34+ TD passes per year.