QB Forecasts

Patrick Mahomes 2021 Outlook: Worth an Early Pick?

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and in fantasy football. This is not a bold statement. We get it, Mahomes is good like really good. Since this is fairly straightforward, here are some unique statistics that describe how amazing he is: across his last three seasons (45 games) he has been a top 12 QB 70% of the time and has been the #1 QB on the week 16% of the time. Think about that: 16% of the time he plays. he posts the best score of the week. Over the last three seasons, Mahomes has an average of 24 ppg. To put this in perspective, there were only two QBs who played more than six games and averaged more fantasy points per game in 2020. Those QBs were Josh Allen (24.7) and Patrick Mahomes (25). He is the perfect QB for fantasy, as he is a consistent producer with an almost unmatched ceiling. But where should he be drafted? Many experts preach the late-round QB approach in redraft as there are many QBs that you can acquire later and only sacrifice a few points a week. While that is accurate, Mahomes truly is an exception and, much like his teammate Travis Kelce, is a positional advantage. If you miss out on the elite tight end, I believe Mahomes provides a similar advantage at the QB position. If you like the players available in the third round, I have no issue taking Mahomes in the mid-late second-round.

Josh Allen 2021 Player Outlook: Looking to Build on Last Year's Breakout

Buffalo Bills' quarterback Josh Allen showed progress in 2019 before making a statement in 2020 that saw him finish second in MVP voting after leading the Bills to a 13-3 record and their first playoff win since 1995. Allen was QB1 in 2020 with an average of 25.32 fantasy points per game. He threw for over 4,500 yards, 37 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions while adding 421 yards on the ground and a team-leading eight rushing touchdowns. Looking at the Bills' offense from 2020 to 2021, the lone major change to the team's offense saw wideout John Brown depart to the Las Vegas Raiders and be replaced by second-year wideout Gabriel Davis and veteran Emmanuel Sanders. Allen's rushing floor is what dramatically elevates the floor that he plays at. The points that he gained on the ground last year were good enough for a 5.6 point bump per game. While a bump in running back production from Devin Singletary and Zack Moss is possible, Allen still figures to be very much involved in running the football, and Allen will be looking to turn in his third straight QB1 season.

Kyler Murray 2021 Outlook: Now or Never

After the Hail Murray in the end zone, everything was looking up for the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. They were the last team to beat the Buffalo Bills until the AFC Championship game. They had a top-three WR and Kyler Murray was playing at an MVP level. Then it all came crashing down. First, Kenyan Drake got hurt. Then, with the playoffs on the line, Murray was taken out in the first quarter of the Cardinals' Week 17 matchup against the elite Rams defense. So, what to expect in 2021? The surrounding cast has changed a bit. Out is Kenyan Drake and in is A.J. Green. We still do not have an official answer on Larry Fitzgerald. At this point though, he is a veteran locker room presence, at most. Green has had a rash of bad luck in recent years. Not only was he stuck on the Bengals, but he was also held out for the entire 2019 season to allow his salary to be paid by insurance instead of the team. He is happy to be in Arizona for sure. This could lead to a late-career resurgence. Either way, his threat on the opposite side of the field from DeAndre Hopkins is going to allow both of them to be better in 2020. If they can get any help from the other pass-catchers in Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella, this team might just make the playoffs. Murray is set for another good season/ All of his numbers improved in 2020. He went from 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as a rookie to 26 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions as a sophomore. He threw for 249 more yards in one fewer game as well. And his rushing yards increased from 544 on 93 rushes to 819 on 133 rushes, while improving from four rushing scores to 11. He is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the NFL. He is a legitimate threat to finish as the overall QB1. If you are willing to pay the top six-round price to get him, he's well worth it. If you are a late-round QB guy, he will be too expensive. But when you base him off the price of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen, he might be the best value of them all.

Lamar Jackson 2021 Outlook: Rushing God Needs to Level Up as a Passer

Lamar Jackson is the rushing quarterback king. He's the only QB with multiple 1,000-yard seasons, and he did it in back-to-back years to start his career. In 2019, he set the quarterback record for most rushing yards in a season (1,206) and scored a combined 43 touchdowns, which helped him secure the NFL MVP Award. In 2020, he was equally effective on the ground, but his passing touchdowns dropped from 36 to 26, good for a QB7 finish. The knock on Jackson has always been his passing prowess, or lack thereof, but I think that's more a testament to the talent around him than his actual passing skills. Last year, he finished second only to Aaron Rodgers in completion percentage on throws to the sticks (69.8%), and he had the sixth-best completion percentage on deep passes (47.8%). His poor passing numbers can be attributed to the offensive scheme and lack of volume. The Ravens were first in rushing attempts and percentage (555 attempts/57.8% of plays), which does not include drop-backs that turned into runs. This season, in his third year under offensive coordinator Greg Roman, L-Jax finally has viable weapons after the Ravens drafted Rashod Bateman in the first-round, Tylan Wallace in the fourth round, and signed Sammy Watkins in Free Agency. The moves should open up the field for Jackson's favorite target,Mark Andrews, and prevent defenses from always having a spy Jackson (not that it matters). Things really started to click for Jackson in the second half of 2020 as he finished as the QB5 over his last seven games, and I would expect the receiving help to vault Jackson back into the elite tier of quarterbacks, where he belongs. He should be drafted as the QB2, but his down year has made him a value as the QB5 in the fifth or sixth round.

Dak Prescott 2021 Outlook: The Comeback is Greater Than the Setback

A perfect confluence of a historically bad defense and an electric offense had Dak Prescott on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's single season passing yards record last season. Unfortunately, Prescott's quest was abbreviated when he shattered his ankle in Week 5. The good news is Prescott's recovery has gone exceedingly well to the point where he feels ready to play in games right now. He will be all systems go by Week 1 and should pick up right where he left off. The Cowboys defense is going to be at least a little better this season given all the investments they made in defense during the NFL Draft, but the Cowboys are still largely going to have to outscore opponents to win. Prescott returns to a healthy and improved offensive line along with three playmaking wide receivers in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. Prescott was the overall QB1 when he went down last season and is a locked in high-end QB1 this season. The only quarterback you cannot make an argument to put behind Prescott is Patrick Mahomes. Everyone else is fair game, which puts Prescott anywhere from QB2-6. Even though quarterback is devalued in fantasy, Prescott is well worth a mid-round pick, especially if he falls, as he has overall QB1 upside along with an extremely high weekly floor.