Julio Jones Fantasy Football Trade Impact
There’s no denying that Julio Jones has gone down as one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history. Since being selected by Atlanta with the No. 6 overall pick way back in 2011, Jones has produced fantastic numbers and been an excellent role model off the field. But as they say, all good things must come to an end.
A legend in Atlanta and throughout the fantasy football landscape, Jones requested a trade from the only home he’s ever had. As the Falcons aren’t considered immediate Super Bowl contenders, Jones, 32, wants to win while he’s still in his prime. In the middle of a revamp, the Falcons acquiesced
While numerous NFL teams were certainly interested in acquiring the future hall-of-famer, Jones signed a 3-year $66 million extension that limited many clubs from taking on that kind of salary. The Tennessee Titans emerged as the early favorites to land Jones due to a favorable salary cap situation and the distinct need for another quality perimeter threat after losing Corey Davis via free agency.
Now that we know Jones will play in Tennessee, we can look at his fantasy impact before the 2021 fantasy draft season kicks off.
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By the Numbers
Jones has only played 16 games four times in his 10 pro seasons but his performance when on the field has been superb. In 10 seasons, he’s averaging 135.5 targets, 85 catches, 1290 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. In terms of pure PPR points per contest, Jones has been a top-14 wideout in every one of his pro campaigns. Few wideouts have ever had that kind of consistency for that long.
Extrapolated out to a 16-game pace and Jones averaged 100.5 grabs, 1,528 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns annually. Those gaudy numbers would look even better if the NFL had adopted a 17-game slate earlier.
While Jones is now entering the back end of his career, he’s still playing like he’s in his prime. FantasyData’s Advanced WR Efficiency Metrics prove that Jones was playing at an elite level last season. Jones boasted a 94.4% true catch rate and was only credited with a single drop on 68 targets. Jones also ranked third among all wide receivers in yards per target (11.3) and yards per route run (2.7).
Throughout his career, the only area that Jones has lagged in is in the touchdown department. The Falcons just didn’t seem to feature Jones in the red zone, which was always baffling considering Jones’s size, speed, and performance in contested catch situations. Jones received just 10 red-zone targets in 2020 but that lack of volume has plagued Jones throughout his career. So much so that it’s entirely feasible to wonder if Jones himself isn’t the issue.
Calvin Ridley had 19 endzone targets last year, the second most in all of football.
He came down with only five touchdowns – maybe its not Julio who has the TD issue – maybe its Matt Ryan
— Eliot Crist (@EliotCrist) June 5, 2021
Looking back only at 2020, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was quite mediocre inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Despite Ranking sixth in the league with 80 red-zone pass attempts, Ryan completed just half of those throws and ranked only 11th with 19 RZ touchdowns. Ryan’s accuracy was even worse inside the 10, at 45.2%
Fit in Tennessee
Perhaps the switch to playing with Ryan Tannehill will provide the scoring boost that fantasy managers have long wanted for Jones. In 2021, Tannehill ranked fourth in the NFL last season with 335 red-zone passing yards and boasted an immaculate 28-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Corey Davis nabbed four red-zone touchdowns for the Titans last season and Jones is more than capable of commanding an even larger target share opposite of A.J. Brown.
Before acquiring Jones, the Titans had 224 vacated targets from 2020, which was third-most in football. Just under half of the Titans’ targets from last season were up for grabs, including 15 red-zone attempts.
In Atlanta, Jones ran roughly one-quarter of his targets from the slot and we could see the same or perhaps even more inside routes for Jones in 2021. Brown is a dominant perimeter threat and the club also signed Josh Reynolds via free agency. Fourth-round Louisville rookie Dez Fitzpatrick was penciled in as a possible option inside, but the addition of a superstar like Jones gives Todd Downing plenty of flexibility and options.
Now with an intriguing receiving corps topped by A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Tennessee’s underrated offense looks even more potent, particularly when you consider that Jones has never had the luxury of running routes against a defense that is forced to prioritize a gameplan aimed at slowing down the league’s reigning rushing champion, RB Derrick Henry.
Fantasy Football Impact
With an ADP in the fourth round as the 14th wide receiver off the board, Jones will probably creep up into the top-40 now that we know where he’ll be suiting up and the landing spot was quite favorable.
Overall, the Titans have a very average strength of schedule for wide receivers, but Jones and Brown have plenty of matchups against exploitable secondaries. Tennessee plays nine games against opponents that were below average in terms of surrendering PPR points to opposing wideouts last season.
In such a balanced offense, with a strong ground game, it’s hard to see Jones approaching the 150-plus targets that he has absorbed annually in Atlanta. But in a scheme that excels at getting the ball into the end zone and playing with a quarterback who has been extremely effective in that area, Jones could easily snag 90-plus balls, top 1,300 receiving yards, and finally top double-digit TDs for the first time since his sophomore campaign.
A.J. Brown was viewed by some analysts as a potential top-5 option in 2021 due mostly to the exorbitant number of vacated targets available in Tennessee’s offense. With the addition of a target hog in Jones, Brown’s projections won’t quite be as high, but he’s still an excellent WR1 to target in the second or third round in standard or PPR leagues.
The days of the Tennessee Titans offense being an afterthought in most fantasy football drafts are long gone. Heading into 2021, the Titans have all the pieces in place to be an elite scoring offense and the combination of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown will be one of the most exciting tandems in football.
All aboard.
