With just two weeks left in the fantasy season, things are heating up. More importantly, the decisions you make become amplified. With injuries to players like Patrick Mahomes, David Montgomery, Jaylen Waddle, and Zach Ertz you may need some advice on who to start in their place. The good news is that there are options.
It’s never easy to plug someone new into your lineup when you’re one win away from the championship, but sometimes it’s necessary. As with anything, these are my opinions and another writer may see things differently. But for my money, these are a few of the players who could help or hurt you this week. Here are my Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 16 recommendations.
WEEK 16 STARTS
Start Stat %, Via Sleeper
BAKER MAYFIELD (QB)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DAL (58% START)
It’s hard to believe that Baker Mayfield is still being started in just 58% of leagues. He is currently the QB5 and has posted over 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games, including 40.42 this past week against the Chargers. Despite losing one of his top targets in Chris Godwin, Mayfield has continued to get the most out of the weapons around him.
Mayfield has thrown the third-most touchdowns this season (32) and the Buccaneers’ 403 points scored is second only to Detroit. Mayfield finds himself in another plus matchup this week when he faces the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have been an easier matchup for opposing offenses than expected and just lost star CB Trevon Diggs (knee) for the rest of the season. If you’ve been disappointed in your quarterback play and Mayfield is (for some reason) still riding your bench, it might be time to get him into your lineup.
JEROME FORD (RB)
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CIN (39% START)
The Cleveland Browns lost Nick Chubb (foot) for the rest of the 2024 season. As a result, Jerome Ford should be back atop the depth chart receiving a heavy workload against the Cincinnati Bengals. Ford is coming off one of his best games of the season (18.4 half-PPR points) against the Kansas City Chiefs and now faces a Bengals’ defense allowing over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing runners. The Bengals have also allowed seven running backs to score over 10.4 PPR points over the past five weeks.
The one caveat to all this is that Jameis Winston has been benched and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the start. However, as long as he is competent, Ford should be able to find enough room to operate. More importantly, with the usage he should get in this one, I expect him to produce.
Ultimately, Ford is a solid RB2 this week and if he breaks off another big play (he had a 62-yard touchdown last week) he could flirt with low-end RB1 numbers. Don’t hesitate to pick up Ford off the waiver wire and start him this week.
JALEN MCMILLAN (WR)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DAL (17% START)
After mentioning Mayfield as a start, it only seems right that we highlight one of his primary targets from Week 15, Jalen McMillan. Against the Chargers, the rookie received the second-most targets (6) on the team behind only Mike Evans. Impressively, those targets led to five receptions for 75 yards and a score. Not to mention, a top-20 fantasy football performance.
It’s not easy for a young player to break out from behind the shadow of Evans. However, fantasy managers looking for flex help this week should not sleep on McMillan. The Cowboys are in a free fall which should offer plenty of scoring opportunities for McMillan and the Buccaneers. Additionally, the Cowboys have allowed plenty of production from the wide receiver position this year. With Evans drawing most of the defensive attention, the Cowboys’ secondary may forget about McMillan, leading to another big day. McMillan is a good flex option who could end up with WR2 production.
BRENTON STRANGE (TE)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ LV (18% START)
With Evan Engram on injured reserve, Brenton Strange stepped in for him and had a top-four finish with 18.3 PPR fantasy points. Strange was targeted 12 times by Mac Jones, catching 11 passes for 73 yards. Any tight end getting that type of volume has to be taken seriously. Strange is nursing a shoulder injury but is expected to be able to go in Week 16. If he does, putting him in your lineup could be a good move. Strange gets a favorable matchup this week when he takes on the Raiders. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, and the most points over the last eight weeks. Strange isn’t a household name who you will be excited to plug into your lineup, but Jones should look his way early and often. If Strange has another double-digit target game, you’ll be glad you have him in your lineup.
WEEK 16 SITS
PATRICK MAHOMES (QB)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. HOU (72% START)
Earlier this season, managers holding onto Patrick Mahomes were finally beginning to see a light at the end of the tunnel. Thankfully, he appeared to be finding his way back to being a top fantasy football option this year. However, that was short-lived and Mahomes has reverted to the same floor play he’s been since last season.
While Mahomes is a top-10 fantasy quarterback this season, he has scored more than 17 points just three times. Additionally, he is now dealing with a high ankle sprain and is considered week to week. That may make this suggestion a bit of a cheat, because if he’s out, clearly you’re sitting him. However, even if he tries to play through the injury you would be well-advised to have a pivot option.
Ultimately, I don’t see any scenario in which Mahomes doesn’t disappoint in Week 16. More importantly, with a trip to the fantasy championship on the line, he’s not worth the risk of leaving on your bench.
NAJEE HARRIS (RB)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BAL (57% START)
As the RB21 in PPR formats, Najee Harris has been a decent low-end RB2 in 2024. Impressively, he is averaging 12.5 PPR points per game. However, since coming out of his Week 9 bye he has only surpassed 53 rushing yards twice.
If the matchup was more favorable, I might still advise you to roll with Harris since running backs who get consistent work are hard to come by. However, Harris’ Week 16 opponent is brutal for fantasy purposes. Notably, the Ravens allow under 64 rushing yards per game to running backs.
To be fair to Harris, the last time he faced the Ravens he managed 63 rushing yards and 13.3 PPR points. If he duplicated that this week you would probably be happy. However, a repeat performance is no guarantee. Betting on a player who has been slowing down against a division rival with a good run defense is too rich for my blood.
TRAVIS KELCE (TE)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. HOU (94% START)
This is probably my spiciest suggestion, but hear me out. First, I acknowledge that expecting you to bench Kelce during the fantasy playoffs might be too much to ask. But honestly, other than the name, what makes him an automatic start? It’s certainly not has not been his production this year.
Recently, Kelce has single-digit fantasy points in three of his last five games. Kelce has also received double-digit targets in just one of his previous five outings and is averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game while failing to find the end zone over that same span. The lack in volume is largely due to the emergence of Xavier Worthy as the short-to-intermediate option.
This Saturday, Kelce draws a matchup against the Texans, who are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. There’s also the chance that Mahomes is out this week or is at least not his normal self. If that happens, then the entire Chiefs’ offense may be a recommended sit.
