Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Take advantage of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and try out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Recap from the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: Japan’s best player wasn’t going to be denied last week as he won on his native soil at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP – five strokes better than both Brendan Steele and Cameron Tringale thanks to a clutch -5 in round 4. Big congrats to Matsuyama as his dream year in 2021 continues!
Preview for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Much like last week’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, this week’s Bermuda Championship has only been live on the PGA Tour since 2019 and as a result, this year marks just the third installment of the young tournament. For its first year, this event was an alternate opposite a WGC tournament, but last year and this year too, the Bermuda Championship stands alone and has FedEx Cup point status, plus the winner receives an invite to the highly-coveted Masters Tournament next April. We are back to a relatively full field this week, and there will be a cut line for the first time in three weeks. Winners of the Bermuda Championship over the past two years include Brian Gay in 2020 and Brendon Todd in 2019.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $6.5M, the winner receives $1.17M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Port Royal Golf Course is only 6,842 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are none other than Bermudagrass. The two winning scores at this tournament so far are -15 which came last year by Brian Gay, and Brendon Todd has the record at -24 which he shot two years ago in 2019. Expect the winning score to come in somewhere between -15 to -24 depending on how the wind and overall weather conditions play out. Some of the core key stats to pay attention to this week in order are driving accuracy, strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: around the green, driving distance, and strokes gained: approach.
The field: We have a field size of 132 players this week, and the top 65 plus ties will advance to the weekend to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. This tournament never sees much in terms of talent, but there are a couple of notable players this year including Matt Fitzpatrick and Patrick Reed, and the rest of them are average to less than average golfers. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a D.
Three questions I have about the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this week:
1. Will another short hitter win this year? The only two winners of this event, Brian Gay and Brendon Todd, are both short but can be accurate hitters (especially Todd), and note that driving accuracy is the most important key stat this week. This is one of the shortest tracks on the PGA Tour and distance is always nice but not required. Interesting to note, Wyndham Clark finished runner-up to Gay last year, and he’s a fairly long hitter, so a hard swinger could come out on top this week.
2. Get behind one of the two top-ranked players here? There aren’t really any stars in the field this week unless you count Patrick Reed, and it makes me wonder if he or Matt Fitzpatrick will be victorious come Sunday. I think one of the better players as of late will take it this week, but then again, Brian Gay won last year after missing five consecutive cut lines, so anything is possible this week.
3. What will the optimal lineup look like this week? I don’t think that anyone would have expected Brian Gay to be on the optimal DFS lineup last year, but in the end, he was the breadwinner of it. This may be the week where you want to deploy some players who have some sneaky upside and could surprise – sprinkling in dark horses this week who come very cheap in the $6K range could pay off huge.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We are back to a decent size field and a cut line, so you have to be conscious of those two facts and build your lineups accordingly. I personally like these smaller events with mediocre fields that feature a cut since casual DFS users don’t likely dig in hard to find value near the bottom, and those players can make huge impacts on your lineups. To use Brian Gay as an example again, he was super cheap last year and very low owned, but for those who actually deployed him, they were laughing on Sunday evening. I’ll be back to building hybrid lineups this week for my core plays, and I’ll also get some stars and scrub lineups into the large GPPs, as well. Keep an eye on projected ownership on Wednesday and leave a few hundred dollars on the table for each lineup if you partake in the contests that feature tens of thousands of lineups.
All the best in your quest to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – This may be his best opportunity ever to win a PGA Tour event as Fitzpatrick is arguably the odds on favorite this week plus he won in his most recent European Tour start two weeks ago at the Andalucia Masters. He also finished T20 at the BMW PGA Championship last month, came in T26 at The Open Championship three starts ago on the PGA Tour, and had a runner-up at the Scottish Open back in July in a top-heavy field. He’s solid off the tee, has a decent short game, and while it seems nuts to spend $11K on him – this week is the exception since the field is quite poor. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – We haven’t seen Bezuidenhout on the PGA Tour since his T53 at The Open Championship, but he had a 16th at the Olympics, and more recently he has been spectacular with a T3 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and he had a T5 at the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour earlier last month, and that field was a whole lot better than this weeks. He has played in fifteen straight weekends on the PGA Tour, has an excellent short game, and this week he’s both “safe” and offers upside, as well. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – I think you could go with Mito Pereira or Seamus Power here – I went with Power since he won five starts ago and also has some decent history on this track. He went through a power stretch from May to July where he finished top 20 in six straight tournaments played including his win at the Barbasol Championship, he had a T31 at THE NORTHERN TRUST in late August, and in his most recent start at the Shriners Children’s Open, he finished T21 thanks to gaining 6.52 strokes on approach. When you add it all up, he very well could be the top DFS play this week, so don’t be shy to start your core lineups with Power as your leader. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T37 and 2019 – T31.
The $9K Range
Hayden Buckley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour since early August, Buckley has five top 8’s in his last eight starts including a T4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a T8 at the Shriners Children’s Open just over two weeks ago. He has gained strokes across the board over his last two starts, and looks like a fairly solid player to get behind this week other than not having any experience on this course – but going with a hot hand is almost always an excellent idea in DFS. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Taylor Pendrith (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Pendrith is a name that we are starting to get used to now on the PGA Tour as he has played regularly in this new season and has finished in the T36 to T47 range. He has made five cut lines in a row plus he has only missed one cut over his last nine starts, has two top 13’s mixed in there, and has performed well on the Korn Ferry Tour too including a T20 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. He gets his job done via strong off the tee play and harnesses a good short game, and as long as he performs well in those stat categories again this week, then he should have another nice finish, especially in this weak field. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Danny Willett (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – He won two starts ago on the European Tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and followed that up with a T21 at the Shriners Children’s Open thanks to strong around the green play where he gained 5.11 strokes. His stats don’t look impressive but he finds ways to grind out respectable finishes in A-caliber fields as he had a 33rd at The Open Championship in mid-July, finished T26 at the Memorial Tournament in June, and had a T64 at the PGA Championship in May. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T55.
The $8K Range
Ryan Armour (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – He has been one of the better players of this tournament over its first two years with two top 10’s, and while his play hasn’t been very good lately, he did have two top 6’s in July at the 3M Open and the Barbasol Championship. He came in with similar bad form last year when he finished T8 and it was much the same story prior to his T8 in 2019 – history can repeat itself again this week, so Armour is worth the gamble I do believe. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T8 and 2019 – T8.
Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – Other than losing strokes putting in two starts over his past three – Theegala has gained strokes across all major stat categories, and he successfully did across all of them at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he finished T8 just two starts ago. He has four top 37’s over his last seven starts, finished T6 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last month, and seems like a good mid-tier $8K value pick for being a non-typical player in it. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Joseph Bramlett (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – He has some alright tournament history, has made five cuts over his last seven events including a 20th at the Barracuda Championship and a T11 at the Barbasol Championship, plus Bramlett won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last month thanks to a dazzling 27 birdies. He has had a great approach game since July – gaining strokes in the important stat category in six out of his last seven tournaments played that offered shot tracker technology including gaining at least 3.29 in four of those, and if he can figure out his putter this week, then he’s a threat to finish top 15. Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T45 and 2019 – T31.
The $7K Range
Nick Hardy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He has four straight top 42’s on the PGA Tour including a T14 at the Sony Open, a T36 at the Fortinet Championship, and he had a T26 earlier this month at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he gained strokes across all the major stat categories except for a modest 0.70 loss around the greens. He looks like an OK play this week for your hybrid and balanced lineups – add him in where you feel the most comfortable. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – This selection has a bit more to do with his tournament history versus his recent form as he has two top 20’s here and was just outside the top 10 in 2019. He does have two top 29’s over his last five starts, and in his T29 at the Sanderson Farms Championship two starts ago, Knox gained strokes across the board except off the tee where he lost 1.96. This seems to be a course where players who like it play well, and with two high finishes so far for Russell, we could see a third straight top 20 this week. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T16 and 2019 – T11.
Brian Gay (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – He was playing horribly coming into this tournament last year and he won it, two years ago he finished T3, and he is again playing badly as of late, so he will likely go back-to-back and win again this week. This just seems to be a course that agrees with him and his age, and he’s worth a flier in stars and scrubs and hybrid builds – just don’t be overweight on him in case it all backfires. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Won and 2019 – T3.
The $6K Range
Paul Barjon (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – The $6K range is total garbage this week, so choosing to build stars and scrub lineups for your core builds seems quite risky from my vantage point. I’ll start with Barjon who has finished no worse than 54th over his last four PGA Tour starts, he finished T4 at a Korn Ferry Tour event in late August, and actually won on the same tour back in April of this year at the Huntsville Championship. He’s worth throwing into at least one lineup of yours this week, just don’t expect him to unlock tons of fantasy value though. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Vaughn Taylor (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Here’s another player that won’t set the course on fire this week, but Taylor does have three top 58’s over his last four events if you exclude his withdraw at the 3M Open in late July, and he has been consistently gaining in approach since mid-June. I do like that he finished T40 here last year after missing seven consecutive cut lines, and believe he should finish around the same again this year, but don’t quote me on it. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T40.
Cameron Percy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Percy is likely my “favorite” $6K selection this week as he has made eight straight cut lines on the PGA Tour, and is 2 for 2 at this tournament including his T26 last year. Much like Taylor above, his approach game has actually been quite solid for a while now, and that could potentially propel him into another top 30 finish this week. Butterfield Bermuda Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T26 and 2019 – T48.
