Fantasy Football Winners, Losers, and Takeaways: Week 7
In a brutal week of byes and injuries, fantasy managers needed to plug in the likes of Devonta Freeman, Nico Collins, Jerick McKinnon, and several other players on the fringes. So far, it seemed like fewer injuries to key players in Week 7. However, we’re also missing several fantasy contributors given the bye week and injuries. Make sure to look ahead as Ravens and Raiders have their bye in Week 8. Then in Week 9, we have the Seahawks, Lions, Buccaneers, and Washington Football Team. We’ll note the player injuries to monitor, plus the Week 7 highlights, wonders, and disappointments.
Injuries to Monitor:
- Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) landed on his shoulder and left briefly before returning to the game. The Browns didn’t need to throw much, so Beckham Jr. caught two of six targets (18.2%) for 23 receiving yards.
- News broke right around the start of Thursday’s game that Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin) suffered a groin injury during pre-game warmups. Unfortunately, the news report likely messed up starting lineups for fantasy managers.
- Davante Adams headed to the medical tent for a brief time on Sunday, then returned to the game.
- Surprisingly, Rhamondre Stevenson ended up inactive on Sunday. We’ll see if it’s a healthy scratch or an injury.
- Zach Wilson (knee) took a big hit on an incompletion down the field. Reports later indicated that he’s dealing with a knee injury, and their backup quarterback in Mike White filled in. Downgrade all Jets pass-catchers if Wilson misses time, but they lacked much upside anyway. Wilson will undergo an MRI on Monday.
- Jaylen Waddle left with an injury on Sunday but later returned to the game. Waddle finished with seven catches for 83 receiving yards on eight targets.
- Patrick Mahomes took a hit on a sack and avoided a concussion. That’s good news, as it looked brutal for Mahomes in their loss to the Titans.
- Jonnu Smith (shoulder) left their game against the Jets with a shoulder injury. Smith made a couple of big catches with two receptions on four targets for 52 receiving yards.
- Miles Sanders (ankle) left Sunday’s game with an ankle issue. That’s unfortunate because Sanders received six carries for 30 rushing yards early on as the Eagles desperately need to have the run game going. If Sanders misses time, Kenneth Gainwell’s stock rises.
- Josh Jacobs (chest) left Sunday’s game, and then the Raiders ruled him out for the rest of the game. Unfortunate news for Jacobs since he received six carries for 29 rushing yards and one touchdown plus three receptions for 39 receiving yards. Kenyan Drake filled in nicely and produced alongside Jacobs. Drake led the Raiders with 14 carries, 69 rushing yards, and one touchdown. He also caught all three targets for ten receiving yards.
- Scoop up Peyton Barber, who ended up as a healthy inactive the past couple of weeks. However, the Raiders have a bye in Week 8, so maybe that’s enough rest for Jacobs to return in Week 9.
Week 7 Highlights
Is D’Ernest Johnson a Week-Winner?
One would think the Broncos played without their top two running backs and a backup quarterback given the time of possession under nine minutes and 76 total yards in the first half. D’Ernest Johnson smashed on Thursday night against the Broncos. Before Thursday night, the Broncos allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards to the running back position with an average of 71.8 yards per game.
Top-12 in total yards by Browns RBs (2019-2021)
1) Nick Chubb – 183
2) Chubb – 176
3) Chubb – 170
4) D’Ernest Johnson – 168 (2021)
5) Chubb – 164
6) Kareem Hunt – 155
7) Chubb – 148
8) Chubb – 139
9) Chubb – 138
10) Chubb – 133
11) Hunt – 132
12) Chubb – 131 pic.twitter.com/5zF8Sm0MqN— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 23, 2021
Keep in mind that only the Steelers and Ravens rushed for over 100 yards against the Broncos since they also faced the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders. Regardless, Johnson performed well for fantasy purposes and looked good on film breaking and evading tackles. Johnson finished with 22 carries, 146 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown. He also caught both targets for 22 receiving yards to boast 23 fantasy points in half PPR scoring.
Browns final RB snap count #DENvsCLE
D’Ernest Johnson 50
Demetric Felton 22
Johnny Stanton 11
John Kelly 3Out of 71 plays
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 22, 2021
Don’t sell high. Hold onto D’Ernest Johnson since he could have value even when Nick Chubb returns. Demetric Felton finishes with the second-most snaps amongst the team running backs with two carries for 13 rushing yards plus hauling in all three targets for 21 receiving yards. Felton remains a deep league PPR option but lacks any upside.
Big Game For A.J. Brown
In a crucial matchup against Kansas City, the Titans came out hot with 14 points in the first quarter due to a Derrick Henry passing touchdown and A.J. Brown hauling in a 24-yard touchdown catch. It’s the game that fantasy managers have waited for and expected from Brown as he finished with eight receptions on nine targets for 133 receiving yards and a touchdown. After a productive second-half last week on Monday Night Football, Brown built upon that solid game. The buy-low window closed on Brown.
But, Ja’Marr Chase Drops Passes
Before the 2021 NFL Draft, the buzz involved whether to take Ja’Marr Chase or Penei Sewell. The “smart” pick seemed like taking the offensive lineman in Sewell. However, I noted the sexy draft pick included Chase with the playmaking ability during their final college season together at LSU. It’s safe to say that through the first seven games, the Bengals look like they made the right pick in Chase.
Ja’Marr Chase so far today:
➡️ 8 catches
➡️ 201 yards
➡️ 82-yard TD
➡️ Most rec. yards by any player in his first 7 NFL games (since 1970) pic.twitter.com/K9Fjhc6r5a— NFL (@NFL) October 24, 2021
Chase balled out once again on Sunday as he reached a career-high with 201 receiving yards, one touchdown, and eight receptions on ten targets. He took an 82-yard reception to the house after spinning out of a tackle between two defenders. Heading into Week 7, Chase checked boxes in opportunity with a 49.5% (No. 2) Air Yards Share and 24% (No. 20) target share heading into Week 7. Chase also boasts high efficiency, with the 6th highest yards per target (13.5) and 6th best yards per route run (3.27). Value Chase as a WR1 for the rest of the season at this point.
No Antonio Brown, No Problem for the Bucs
Without Antonio Brown, it seemed logical for Tyler Johnson to receive some added work. However, the targets funneled to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who combined for 21 of the 39 team passes thrown. Another uber-efficient day for Tom Brady from a touchdown standpoint with four passing touchdowns yet only 211 passing yards.
Mike Evans hauled in three touchdowns on six receptions for 76 receiving yards with ten targets. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin led the Buccaneers with eight receptions on 11 targets for 111 receiving yards and one touchdown. Godwin only notched his second 100-yard game of the season, which last came in Week 1. Evans now boasts seven touchdown receptions with two games that included a pair each.
Week 7 Wonders
Kyle Pitts is Legitimate
After their bye week, fantasy managers wondered how or what the Falcons would do to adjust. Kyle Pitts finished second on the team in targets with eight behind Calvin Ridley with ten. However, Pitts hauled in seven of eight for 163 receiving yards. He’s essentially an unreal athlete with receiver skills playing the tight end position.
Kyle Pitts is a BAAAAAD man!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/noDaiYkui5
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 24, 2021
Like Ja’Marr Chase, Pitts recorded a career-high in receiving yards after hauling in nine of ten for 119 receiving yards in Week 5. Hopefully, fantasy managers attempted to buy low on Pitts earlier in the season. Pitts may break the rookie tight end records as a locked-in top-5 tight end for the rest of the season.
D’Andre Swift Leads the Lions in Targets
In past games, D’Andre Swift produced late in games in what folks would call garbage time. However, in the first drive of Sunday’s game, Swift received a short pass from Jared Goff for a 63-yard receiving touchdown. He led the Lions in targets with ten for a 27.8% target share and hauled in eight receptions for 96 receiving yards. Swift also rushed 13 times for 48 yards. Every week, Swift garners more and more high-value touches (HVT) with 42 as he tied for first with Najee Harris amongst all running backs. A reminder that HVTs include touches inside the opponent’s 10-yard line plus receptions.
D’Andre Swift goes 63 yards! #OnePride
📺: #DETvsLAR on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/nW1ReYzgz0— NFL (@NFL) October 24, 2021
Cooper Kupp Dominates Again
In the same game with D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp dominates again with ten receptions for 156 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets. Kupp continues to garner a high target share at 31.7% on Sunday as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target in the passing game. That’s right below Kupp’s season-long 34.2% target share (No. 3). Don’t sell high on Kupp since he earns a high volume of targets and massive production as a WR1.
Khalil Herbert Rushed For 100 Yards Against the Bucs
In a brutal game for the Bears, one bright spot for them involved rookie Khalil Herbert. Heading into Week 7, the Buccaneers allowed the fewest rushing yards per game with 254 overall. Herbert doubled the rushing yards allowed per game on Sunday.
Khalil Herbert rushed for 100 yards today against the Buccaneers. That’s just the third time a running back has hit 100 rushing yards against Tampa Bay in the regular season since the end of the 2018 season.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 25, 2021
Entering Sunday, Herbert boasted similar peripherals to David Montgomery in Juke Rate at 28.6% (No. 25) and 2.02 (No. 49) Yards Created Per Touch. After a productive Week 5 performance as RB11 with 21 touches for 112 total yards and one touchdown, Herbert earned the RB2 spot on the Bears for now.
Week 7 Disappointments
Yikes, Not Mike And Ike Davis
In Week 5, Cordarrelle Patterson received an increase in opportunities, particularly in the rushing game. Patterson finished with season-highs in carries (14) and targets (9). He also notched a 60% snap share – the highest of the season in Week 5. Meanwhile, the snap share of 62.7% for Mike Davis remained similar with nearly the same opportunities.
D’Andre Swift has almost 100 more receiving yards than another other running back this season. (Cordarrelle Patterson is in second, and he’s 95 behind.)
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 25, 2021
Then in Week 7, Patterson led the Falcons backfield with 14 carries for 60 rushing yards and one touchdown. On the flip side, Mike Davis only received four carries for ten rushing yards. Patterson also earned five targets yet only caught two passes for one receiving yard. Meanwhile, Davis didn’t garner a single target. Patterson edged Davis with 46 snaps for Patterson and 38 for Davis.
In a game where the Falcons led or played it close with the Dolphins, the lack of touches for Davis should concern fantasy managers. From a real-life and fantasy standpoint, the Falcons seemed to use their best offensive skill players on Sunday, including Cordarrelle Patterson.
Avoid the Ravens Run Game
Outside of Lamar Jackson, it’s best to avoid the Ravens run game for now. Admittedly, I bought into the idea that Devonta Freeman could see an increased workload as one of my Week 7 sleepers. However, Freeman salvaged his day with a rushing touchdown yet only received four carries for 14 rushing yards plus hauling in all three targets for 25 receiving yards.
Although Freeman “led” the Ravens backfield in opportunities with eight, Ty’Son Williams trailed close behind with two rushes for ten yards and two receptions for 24 receiving yards. Le’Veon Bell struggled with five carries for five yards and one reception for a negative yard. Feel free to cut the Ravens’ backs in Week 8 with their bye week unless it’s a super deep league where the waiver wire looks barren.
On the flip side – buy into the Ravens’ passing game as Marquise Brown garnered 14 targets with five receptions and 80 receiving yards. Mark Andrews finished second in targets with seven and hauled in three for 48 receiving yards. Rookie Rashod Bateman made explosive plays with three catches on six targets for 80 receiving yards.
The Non-Existent Packers Running Game in Week 7
Against the Washington Football Team and a positive game script, we observed a non-existent Packers running game. They scored three passing touchdowns via Aaron Rodgers, but Aaron Jones led the backfield with six carries for 19 rushing yards. However, Jones caught all five targets for 20 receiving yards, so that’s awful.
Packers leading rushers in the first half #WASvsGB
1) Aaron Rodgers – 17 yards
2) Equanimeous St. Brown – 13 yards— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 24, 2021
It looks like the Packers took advantage of the matchup in the passing game. WFT allows the 2nd most fantasy points to receivers and 2nd most receiving yards. Meanwhile, they allow the 10th fewest rushing yards to the opposing running backs. Outside of Week 1, Aaron Jones finished with his worst game in five weeks. Fantasy managers could attempt to buy low on Jones and A.J. Dillon since the Packers’ backfield should remain productive.
Another Down Week For Panthers and Bears Receivers
Outside of D.J. Moore, can we confidently start a Panthers or Bears receiver? Sure, it’s partly due to Sam Darnold’s lack of efficiency and productivity with 111 passing yards and 4.4 yards per attempt. Moore hauled in six of ten targets for 73 receiving yards. However, Robby Anderson hasn’t produced given the second-most targets on the team, with nine on Sunday.
From my Week 7 sleepers article, I noted the opportunities for Anderson yet the lack of production. Over the past three games, Robby Anderson averages 9.7 targets and 101 Air Yards per game. Unfortunately, that only translated into an average of 3.3 receptions and 29 receiving yards. A similar trend continued with the targets and only three receptions for 14 receiving yards. Hold onto the Anderson in deeper leagues since it’s hard to find a receiver averaging nine-plus targets a game.
Over the past 3 games, Robby Anderson averages 9.7 targets & 101 Air Yards/G. Unfortunately, that only translated into an average of 3.3 rec and 29 rec yards.
The Giants currently allow the 4th most fantasy points at 28.3 per game to wide receivers. #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/MGxvvxaK5W
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 21, 2021
Outside of Kansas City or Las Vegas, when the top pass-catcher on the Bears is Cole Kmet, there are reasons for concern. Darnell Mooney, another Week 7 sleeper, hauled in two catches for 39 receiving yards on five targets. Meanwhile, Allen Robinson reached a season-low of two catches for 16 receiving yards on four targets. Unlike Robby Anderson, Robinson isn’t garnering the same level of targets with the low volume passing offense for the Bears. However, Justin Fields reached another career-high of 32 pass attempts after 27 in Week 6.
For the rest of the season, I’d rank them Mooney, Anderson, and Robinson. Mooney and Anderson sit in the same group, with Robinson trailing to almost drop status. I still want to stash Mooney and possibly buy low on Anderson. However, I’m probably staying away from Robinson, although the 36.3% (No. 18) Air Yards Share and 24.8% (No. 17) target share looks decent.
