Fantasy Football Stock Report (Post NFL Draft)
Since the 2021 NFL Draft wrapped up, we’ll look into several players that saw their stock rise or fall from a fantasy football perspective. One fun theme throughout the draft early on involved reunions of LSU, Clemson, and Alabama players. It’s still early, so the opinions, analysis, and opportunities may change as we move closer to the start of the season. An example of that involves Justin Fields falling into the lap of the Bears at pick No. 11. If the Bears anoint Andy Dalton the starting quarterback or Dalton balls out, then that changes the situation in the short-term for Fields. For now, we’re considering the potential opportunities, roles, and expectations based on the team context and college production.
Fantasy Stock Up
Bears Offense with the Addition of Justin Fields
Since the Bears drafted former Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, it’s a boost up for the entire Bears offense. Can we say finally Allen Robinson pairs up with a talented quarterback? First, let’s take a peek at Fields production and college profile. A couple of notable metrics for Fields includes his 92.1 College Quarterback Rating (96th percentile) and 9.2 yards per attempt (82nd percentile). Meanwhile, in 2019 or his breakout year, Fields passed for over 3,200 yards with 41 passing touchdowns and three picks. Fields also added 484 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns. In 2020, Fields displayed similar efficiency and productivity with 9.3 yards per attempt, 2,100 passing yards, and 383 rushing yards.
Last season, the Bears averaged 40.6 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 9) since they often played from behind given their -1.78 Game Script (No. 18). Both Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles ranked in the bottom of the league in terms of efficiency metrics and, of course, lacked fantasy production outside a few weeks against weak defenses (HOU, JAC, and TEN). The lack of efficiency translated into poor efficiency numbers for Allen Robinson as well with a -1.0 Production Premium (No. 48), 8.3 yards per target (No. 52), and 1.74 fantasy points per target (No. 64). Fields will provide the rushing ability we love for fantasy football, and it means a boost up for the entire Bears offense in 2021 and beyond. If Fields doesn’t enter the season as the starting quarterback, he’ll likely take that over within the first few weeks assuming Dalton doesn’t ball out, which seems unlikely.
Bears HC Matt Nagy: Everyone will know ‘when it’s the right time’ to play rookie QB Justin Fieldshttps://t.co/vWDBhXX5rK pic.twitter.com/9sqsPJHMqc
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) May 2, 2021
Bengals Offense with Ja’Marr Chase
Some of the talk all offseason with the NFL Mock Drafts involved the smart pick of Penei Sewell or the sexy pick of Ja’Marr Chase at pick No. 5 to the Bengals. However, Chase reunited with his former college quarterback in Joe Burrow. I say the smart pick because opposing defenses sacked Burrow 32 times in ten games, which ranked as the 10th most in 2020. Over a full 16 games, Burrow probably would’ve ranked near the top in sacks, which isn’t positive. He was on pace for over 51 sacks right near former Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz with 50 sacks. Yikes.
However, there’s no denying the talent of Ja’Marr Chase in his breakout season in 2019. Chase earned a 19.6% college target share (36th percentile) for 84 receptions and 1,780 receiving yards with 20 receiving touchdowns. In one of the most prolific offenses in college football that season, don’t dismiss his target share with Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire on that team as well. Chase boasts a 19.5 Breakout Age (78th percentile) with elite workout metrics across the board. At 6-foot and 201-pounds, Chase ran a 4.39 40-yard dash (95th percentile) good for a 106.8 Speed Score (86th percentile). Chase also has a 135.7 Burst Score (97th percentile), which lines up with his explosiveness we observed of him on the field.
The Bengals ran 3-WR sets 72.5% of the time, which means Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd could see the field quite often. Last season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense primarily thrived on passing volume yet lacked efficiency. Burrow averaged 39.3 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 11) yet a 6.2 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (No. 25) and -20.9 Production Premium (No. 34). All three of their receivers should provide fantasy production, but the tricky piece here is figuring out if there’s enough volume for all three to thrive. I would guess probably not unless the entire offense, particularly Burrow becomes more efficient. Often offenses rely on volume or efficiency, but ideally a mix of both. In 2020, the Bengals offense landed in the volume category. Overall, Chase will have a positive impact on the Bengals offense in 2021 and beyond.
Landing Spot for Trey Sermon
With Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson primarily leading in the 49ers backfield, it seems that Trey Sermon’s stock rises a bit. Or this could scream uberly frustrating vibes in the 49ers’ offense. However, we know running backs can thrive in the Kyle Shanahan-led team. While writing this, I’m also having flashbacks to my hopes and dreams with Tevin Coleman, that uh, didn’t quite work out.
In his breakout season in 2020, Trey Sermon totaled 870 rushing yards with four total touchdowns. Throughout his college career, Sermon averaged 6.5 yards per carry (82nd percentile) and a 4.6% college target share (22nd percentile). Even his 14.8% College Dominator ranked in the 17th percentile doesn’t scream riser. So why does he fall in the group of risers?
Outside of Tevin Coleman, who suffered a couple of injuries, the 49ers running game typically thrived off of volume and efficiency. The one tricky part with the volume – it’s typically split up between multiple backs evidenced by the fantasy points per game. However, he could thrive as a second running back to take over the Jeff Wilson role. If Sermon’s redraft ADP doesn’t rise too much, he’s a nice mid-round running back target. The landing spot and offensive system look exciting for Trey Sermon.
Landing Spot for Najee Harris
After back-to-back seasons with over 1,200 rushing yards and over 300 receiving yards, Najee Harris landed with the Steelers at pick No. 24 as the first running back drafted in 2021. He went right before Travis Etienne who we’ll discuss in the fallers group, mostly highlighting the fall of James Robinson. Unfortunately, Harris didn’t run at his pro day with an ankle injury. However, Harris compiled 2,690 rushing yards and 729 receiving yards in 2019 and 2020. At 6-foot-1 and 232-pounds, Harris is a bigger back that contributed to the rushing and receiving game. Stock up for Harris as he should easily lead the Steelers backfield though they do need a bit of help on the offensive line.
Intrigued by Terrace Marshall Jr. & the Panthers Offense
Oh my, the Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold have quite the offensive weapons at their disposal. Assuming a healthy Christian McCaffrey with the already established D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, what happens with the offense heading into 2021? This situation toed the line of risers and fallers, hence why I placed this situation here.
The Panthers drafted former LSU receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. at pick No. 59. Interestingly, Marshall went shortly after D’Wayne Eskridge and Tutu Atwell, both of which fell behind Marshall in early rookie rankings. Even fellow FantasyData writer Aaron Schill had Marshall ranked higher than Atwell and Eskridge in his pre-draft rookie rankings.
Although the college production isn’t as eye-popping as Ja’Marr Chase, who opted out in 2020, Marshall provided intriguing metrics. Given the loaded LSU roster during his time there, it doesn’t mean he lacked talent or ability. Marshall’s draft profile includes a 46.5% College Dominator (92nd percentile), 16.6% college target share (23rd percentile), and 19.2 Breakout Age (86th percentile). He boasted an elite College Dominator and near-elite Breakout Age. Marshall also ran a 4.45 40-yard dash (80th percentile) that translated into a 106.0 Speed Score (85th percentile) at 6-foot-2 and 205-pounds. He also ranked highly in Burst Score with a 128.8 Burst Score that ranked in the 85th percentile.
Terrace Marshall alongside D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson makes me salivate. In 2020, both Moore and Anderson earned a ton of opportunities in terms of targets and air yards. Similar to the Bengals, who will lose opportunities as a result of the Panthers drafting Marshall? We’ll also assume McCaffrey earns a healthy target share too, which then leaves a small chunk left. We’ll see how Sam Darnold compares to Teddy Bridgewater, but it’s likely a lateral quarterback move and not a significant improvement. Regardless, I’m quite intrigued post-NFL Draft.
Fantasy Stock Down
Melvin Gordon With the Addition of Javonte Wiliams
This one’s a bit obvious, but the Broncos drafting Javonte Williams means stock down for Melvin Gordon. Williams exploded for 22 total touchdowns in 2020 with 1,140 rushing yards and 305 receiving yards. He shared the backfield at North Carolina with Michael Carter, who produced as well with 1,245 rushing yards and 267 receiving yards yet only 11 total touchdowns.
Javonte Williams didn’t impress with his speed at his pro day with a 4.62 40-yard dash and a 93.1 Speed Score (39th percentile). However, he showed a bit of some elusiveness in college evidenced by his 11.02 Agility Score (89th percentile). Per PlayerProfiler, Agility Score measures a player’s short-area quickness and their ability to evade tackles. Expect Williams to eat into Gordon’s opportunities and production in 2021.
James Robinson With the Addition of Travis Etienne
As the head coach of the Jaguars, we expect Urban Meyer to emphasize the run game. Outside of 2018, the Buckeyes averaged over 240 rushing yards per game from 2014-2017. For context, Ezekiel Elliot and J.K. Dobbins led the team in four of the five seasons (2014-2018). We’ll see how Meyer’s offense adjusts at the pro level, but his teams typically had high-scoring offenses. Hopefully, that translates to the Jaguars with the additions of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne in the first round.
Let’s briefly note the high opportunities James Robinson received in 2020. Robinson ranked 1st with an 85.2% Opportunity Share, 6th with 238.2 Weighted Opportunities, and 7th with a 74.3% snap share. He dominated touches in the rushing and receiving game and averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game (No. 5) on the season. Hopefully, you traded away Robinson in dynasty leagues because that’s now going to change with Travis Etienne in town.
Not only do we have another reunion of Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence, but we also have one of the more exciting running back talents with the Jaguars. Etienne had back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019 with over 1,600 rushing yards and 49 total touchdowns. Unfortunately, his final season at Clemson wasn’t as productive in 2020, but Etienne earned a healthy 12.2% college target share that ranked in the 86th percentile. Urban Meyer called Etienne their “third-down back,” meaning he’ll at least have a role in this offense. However, my gut tells me that Etienne will earn a bit more than just a satellite back role.
Low Passing Volume & Rashod Bateman
Coming out of Minnesota, Rashod Bateman checked several boxes in his college profile. Bateman boasted a 43.7% College Dominator (88th percentile), 30.4% college target share (87th percentile), and an 18.8 Breakout Age (94th percentile). In 2018 and 2019, Bateman played with Buccaneers wide receiver Tyler Johnson before he left for the NFL.
Here’s why I’m a bit concerned about Rashod Bateman’s landing spot with the Ravens.
In the past two seasons, the Ravens ranked last in team pass plays per game and first in team run plays per game. They also led the league in Game Script, meaning they often played with a large lead. Meanwhile, the Ravens ranked last and second to last in Pace of Play, which indicates the number of plays per minute.
In 2020, Marquise Brown finally thrived in the final six games of the season when the high 25.2% target share (No. 12) and high 37.2% air yards share (No. 8) led to production. However, we’ll note that his six touchdowns during that stretch helped boost his fantasy production. Assuming the Ravens low volume passing game continues to filter through Mark Andrews and Brown, where does Bateman fit into the mix? It’s difficult to envision the offense drastically changing, and they also drafted Tylan Wallace who finished with 1,491 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018. As a prospect and talent, I love Rashod Bateman. However, the landing spot with the Ravens should cause reasons for concern.
Kyle Pitts Hurts the Value of Hayden Hurst
A year ago, many, including myself felt excitement after the Falcons acquired Hayden Hurst. In 2020, Hurst earned a 14.4% target share (No. 16) and an 11.5% air yards share (No. 25). He ranked inside the top-15 in receptions (56), receiving yards (571), touchdowns (6), and fantasy points (9.3). Well, that’s changing quickly with the Falcons drafting tight end Kyle Pitts at No. 4 overall.
Pitts is one of the most explosive players in the 2021 draft class with a 4.49 40-yard dash (99th percentile), a 123.1 Speed Score (98th percentile), and a 123.1 Burst Score (79th percentile). His college prospect profile looks similar to Broncos tight end Noah Fant. To further cement his elite metrics, Pitts ranked in the 92nd percentile with a 32.3% College Dominator and 96th percentile with an 18.9 Breakout Age. A Falcons offense with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts – yes, please.
Watch List
Is Rondale Moore the Cardinals WR2?
Both Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore hold exciting college prospect profiles. At 5-foot-7 and 181-pounds, Rondale Moore ran a 4.37 40-yard dash (96th percentile), but a low 91.1 Speed Score (39th percentile). A reminder that Speed Score takes into account size-adjusted speed, so it makes sense to see a lower Speed Score for Moore. However, Moore boasted an elite 135.3 Burst Score (96th percentile) and 10.78 Agility Score (94th percentile). Meanwhile, he also earned a 29% college target share that ranked in the 81st percentile with an 18.2 Breakout Age in the 99th percentile. One knock on Rondale Moore involves his past injuries. However, he falls into a situation with A.J. Green and Christian Kirk as his main competition as the Cardinals WR2 behind DeAndre Hopkins. If Rondale Moore stays healthy, all signs point to him thriving.
Where Does Elijah Moore Fit in the Jets Offense?
In the offseason, the Jets signed receiver Corey Davis to a three-year deal worth $37.5 million. They also have post-hype sleeper Denzel Mims who battled injuries in 2020, but came in with a sexy college prospect profile. That means they’ll potentially have Davis and Mims on the outside with Jamison Crowder leading the slot role. However, Crowder has dealt with his fair of injuries missing four games in 2020. What if the Jets trade away Crowder? That would make room for Moore.
Elijah Moore could move to an outside receiver role at times, but let’s note his exciting college profile as well. Moore boasted a 45.5% College Dominator (91st percentile), 35.2% college target share (96th percentile), and a 19.4 Breakout Age (83rd percentile). All great metrics to match with his 4.40 40-yard dash (93rd percentile) and 10.67 Agility Score (98th percentile). Similar to Rondale Moore, his size-adjusted Speed Score of 89.8 (35th percentile) isn’t great and he didn’t test as well with a 121.7 Burst Score (52nd percentile). Overall, this is a revamped Jets offense with Mike LaFleur as their offensive coordinator who served as the 49ers passing game coordinator the past few seasons. Call me intrigued with both Rondale and Elijah Moore in 2021 and beyond.
