Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Take advantage of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Fortinet Championship, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. All the best this week!
The Fortinet Championship
Recap from the Tour Championship: It seems like a while ago now (since last week was a breather for the PGA Tour with no tournament being played), but Patrick Cantlay took advantage of starting at -10 to win the Tour Championship two weeks ago by a stroke over Jon Rahm to secure the highly coveted FedEx Cup and the $15M that goes along with it – huge congrats to him and the other 29 competitors who made it to the final playoff event, it was a very memorable 2020-2021 campaign!
Preview for the Fortinet Championship: We are back for another PGA Tour season and it all starts with a tournament that sounds to be brand new but it’s just a new sponsor with the Fortinet Championship taking over from the Safeway Open which ran from 2016 through 2020. This event was first introduced in 2007 when it was the Fry’s Electronics Open – Mike Weir won the first edition at the Grayhawk Golf Club – Raptor Course in Scottsdale, Arizona. Silverado Country Club – North Course in Napa, California, has hosted this event for five straight years and we will see the players navigating this track once again this year for the first installment of the Fortinet Championship. Winners at the Safeway Open over the past five years include Stewart Cink in 2020, Cameron Champ in 2019, Kevin Tway in 2018, and Brendan Steele won in both 2017 and 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $7M, the winner receives $1.26M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Silverado Country Club – North Course is 7,123 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at the Safeway Open/Frys.com Open over the past decade ranges from -14 to -21, and Stewart Cink holds the tournament record as of last year when he shot that previously mentioned -21 to beat Harry Higgs by two strokes. So, it’s safe to say that we will likely see the winning score in the -14 to -21 range again this year, but it’s also entirely possible we will see a new tournament record with the likes of Jon Rahm in the field. Some of the key stats to include in your custom models this week are strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5s, birdies or better gained, and bogey avoidance.
The field: This tournament doesn’t usually attract a very good field since it comes early in new seasons and players are craving some time off after playing in stressful playoff events, but we will surprisingly see the world’s top-ranked player, Jon Rahm, in action this week provided he doesn’t withdraw to gear up for the Ryder Cup next week. We will see a slew of rookies this week after “graduating” from the Korn Ferry Tour, and Will Zalatoris will make his first official start as a PGA Tour member. We will see 156 players this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 on Friday will move on to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a C+.
Three questions I have about the Fortinet Championship this week:
1. Will Jon Rahm walk away with it? We don’t have many stars in the field this week, but we do have one superstar and that’s Jon Rahm. He’s clearly the best player in this field by a landslide and it makes me wonder if he will blow the rest of the players away with a new tournament record score. After coming up one stroke shy of winning the Tour Championship two weeks ago, we could see a very hungry and determined Rahm this season, and he might play the odd weak field event to pile up additional FedEx Cup points.
2. Can Brendan Steele shine again? Steele has won this tournament two times over the last five years and the California-native looks for his third win in six years this week. He doesn’t have a top 25 over the past three years but did pull down a T29 here a year ago. The odds are stacked against him this year to win with Rahm, Matsuyama, Simpson, and other good players at the top of the board, but he knows this track well, played solid golf last season, and should do fine this week.
3. Which rookie(s) will pop? There are several rookies and young golfers on sponsor exemptions in the field this week – some who have never played a tournament on the PGA Tour before, and you have to think that one or two of them will be fired up and finish high on the leaderboard to offer tons of lineup value – Greyson Sigg and Taylor Pendrith come to mind as intriguing long shots.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We are back to large fields again with cut lines, so you have to have a solid balance between players who have the potential to win or at least finish top 10, and golfers who offer value to make the cut with upside. I’ll be playing mostly hybrid lineups this week, but will also mix in some stars and scrub configurations, as well, for the large GPPs. Take a gander at the projected ownership numbers on Wednesday, and leave a few hundred dollars on the table for each lineup, especially if you’re in the GPPs that have tens of thousands of entries in them and you want to be as unique as possible.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $12.1K) – Rahm stands alone in this field and the DK pricing indicates that too as he’s $1.1K more expensive than the second priciest golfer. He came up just a single stroke shy of winning the Tour Championship two weeks ago despite starting four strokes behind Patrick Cantlay, he has six straight top 9’s including winning the U.S. Open, and had more top 10’s than any other player last season. I’ll be quite surprised if he doesn’t finish top 3 this week, and he should win it all – he’s worth the expensive DK price. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2016 – T15.
Kevin Na (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – Na had a huge finish to last season with two co-runner-up finishes, a T8, and a 3rd in his last six starts and he finished no worse than T23 during that stretch. He was the top player around the green last season, 35th in driving accuracy, 36th in birdie average, and had other good rankings, as well. I also like that he had a 7th here five years ago, and there’s no reason to think his impressive heater will end just yet. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut, 2017 – T37, and 2016 – 7th.
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – Simpson had a decent finish to last season with four top 19’s in his last five starts including a T7 at the Wyndham Championship, and he had thirteen top 25’s in 21 starts total. He was 12th in strokes gained: total, 10th in strokes gained: around the green, 7th in sand save percentage, 8th in birdie average, and 10th in scoring average. Something tells me that he’s looking to have a more successful season in 2021-2022 as he hasn’t played this tournament in four years, and wants to keep that strong momentum going from late last season when he was rolling along quite well. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T17 and 2016 – Cut.
The $9K Range
Sebastian Munoz (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Much like the 2019-2020 season, Munoz had another solid finish to his season again last season with two T4’s in his last six starts, and five of his finishes during that span were top 30’s. Nothing really stands out about his game but he plays pretty decent all around, and he was 29th in birdie average last season. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T33 and 2018 – Cut.
Cameron Champ (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – He’s not defending his championship from two years ago, but he also didn’t play here last year, so he comes back to Silverado looking to win for the second time in as many tries. Champ won four starts ago at the 3M Open for his third PGA Tour victory, and will look to have a more solid season from last as he missed 14 cut lines in 26 starts in 2020-2021 – he’s still young and figuring things out. He’s one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, ranked 10th in eagle average last season, and was also 10th in strokes gained: off the tee. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Won, 2018 – T25, and 2017 – Cut.
Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – If you want a player who makes cut lines, is consistently in the teens, 20’s and 30’s for finishes, and can pop from time to time, then look to Tringale to help out your DFS lineups this week. He had four top 10’s last season and over his last eight starts, he had six top 32’s including a T14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He rates out very well statistically and was in the top 30 in several categories last season including being 21st in scoring average. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T44, 2018 – T46, 2017 – T43, and 2016 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – He concluded the 2020-2021 campaign very well with seven straight top 30’s before flopping a bit in the BMW Championship to finish T63. His stats kept improving as the season wore on, and he ended up finishing 39th in strokes gained: off the tee, 40th in birdie average, and 61st in scoring average. Just making it to the second leg of the playoffs was a major feat for McNealy, and the 25-year-old will look to have his best season yet in 2021-2022. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T52, 2018 – T63, and 2017 – T52.
Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – We didn’t see him a ton last season but look for him a lot more in this one as he’s a golfer on the rise. He had a fantastic stretch from mid-July to early August when he finished T5, T6, and he had a T4 at the Olympics. He won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour, so he has that winning pedigree that you just can’t teach, and he looks to be a promising mid-tier value play for this week. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: None.
Stephan Jaeger (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – Much like Pereira above, he was mostly on the Korn Ferry Tour last season where he was outstanding with two wins, four runner-up or co-runner-up finishes, he had a T3, and 13 top 10’s in 35 starts. He held his own on the PGA Tour with four cut lines made in five starts including a T34 at the U.S. Open last September. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T30.
The $7K Range
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – He had a superb finish to his 2020-2021 campaign with four top 16’s in his last seven starting including a T16 in the first playoff event at THE NORTHERN TRUST, and he had a top 10 here a year ago. If he can pull off another top 20 this week and it’s very possible given how he has been playing and the strength of the field, then he will fare very well in hybrid and balanced DFS lineups for this week. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T9 and 2019 – Cut.
Taylor Moore (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Moore had an excellent season on the Korn Ferry Tour last season with a win and he had six top 10’s in his final seven events played. He hasn’t played a PGA Tour tournament in almost four years now, so you can bet he will be motivated to prove that he belongs here going forward. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: None.
Harry Higgs (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Higgs finished runner-up here a year ago, but much of his remaining season was rocky including missing the cut 15 times in 28 events played, however, he concluded his campaign with a T15, a T16, and a T38 – the latter two events were the playoffs. He has played this course very well since he debuted here two years ago, and could be a leaderboard threat again this week. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – 2nd and 2019 – T23.
The $6K Range
Kevin Tway (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) – The scrubs are dirty potatoes this week, but I have three players who are worth considering starting with Tway. He won this event three years ago, so he can make noise on this track, and he only missed one cut in his final seven events last season – four of them went for top 30’s. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Won, 2017 – T52, and 2016 – T62.
Hayden Buckley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Buckley won last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, and really heated up down the stretch with three top 7’s in his final five events including a T2 and a T4 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. The $6K range is heavily comprised of sub-par PGA Tour players who have been around for years and the best players from the Korn Ferry Tour – this week I’m going more with the latter rather than the former. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: None.
Cameron Percy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – You want cut makers in the $6K range – unfortunately, there aren’t many good scrub options this week but Percy has made seven straight cut lines including a T11 at the John Deere Classic. He actually ranked 1st last season in greens in regulation percentage, and has a good record at this tournament – throw him into some of your stars and scrub lineups this week. Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) finishes over the last five years: 2020 – T23 and 2019 – T7.
