NFL Draftkings Picks: Week 1

NFL Draftkings Picks

Week 1 is finally here. We had a thriller Thursday night and those who played the Showdown Slate and stacked Dak/Cooper and Brady/Godwin/Brown/Gronk were rewarded handsomely. Each week Fantasy Data will bring you 20 players that we like for the Draftkings Sunday main slate. Let us get right to it.

Studs to Splurge For

Here we will highlight two players at each position that are in the top-five of their respective position and are deemed worthy of “paying up” for in your lineup. Please note these players will likely be highly owned so if you are looking to differentiate, you will want to pull more players from the next two sections.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray | $7600 | 11.1% | ARI @ TEN

This game has all the makings of a shootout and has one of the highest totals on the board (53.5). The Cardinals’ secondary is in shambles after Malcolm Butler was placed on the Reserve/Retired list. Look for the Titans to take to the air early and often, forcing Arizona to pass heavily to try and keep pace. Kyler Murray was the QB5 in terms of DK PPG last season (25.4) and brings you the rushing upside you look for in fantasy.

Josh Allen | $7400 | 15.3% | PIT @ BUF

Despite the tough matchup, it is difficult not to at least ponder last year’s number one player in all of fantasy. Like Murray, Josh Allen gives you the rushing upside you look for. The Buffalo signal-caller only had one game under 16 points in 2020, scoring 13.46 points Week 8 versus the arch-rival New England Patriots. On the other hand, Allen went over 20 points in 11 of the 15 other games played, crushing value. In his lone matchup against the Steelers in 2020 (also in Buffalo), the Wyoming grad put up a respectable 19.32 points.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook | $9100 | 2.1% | MIN @ CIN

The Cincinnati Bengals were 29^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed with 148.0. Dalvin Cook is one of the true remaining bell-cow backs left in the game. Look for Minnesota to build an early lead against a porous Bengals defense and ride Cook to the finish. The FSU alumn also offers you points out of the backfield, turning 54 targets into 44 receptions in 2020, and was the RB2 in terms of DK PPG with 26.1.

Alvin Kamara | $8600 | 21.1% | GB @ NO

The RB3 in DK for 2020 was none other than Alvin Kamara (24.5 PPG). We have a line of 49 in this one and the Saints stud running back should be heavily involved. Like Cook, Kamara is a three-down back. What is even more intriguing is the increase in fantasy points when Michael Thomas is not on the field. With MT to contend with for targets (52 games), the Tennessee grad averages a healthy 20.3 PPR points per game. However, in the eight games without Thomas on the field, Kamara shoots all the way up to 30.8 PPG. Look for him to have a red hot start while his teammate is on the mend.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Ridley | $7900 | 10.5% | PHI @ ATL

The departure of Julio Jones and a weak Eagles secondary makes this a prime spot for Calvin Ridley to rake. Much like Kamara above, the star wideout shines when there is less competition on the field for targets. In the eight games played over the past three seasons without Jones on the field, Ridley jumps up to over 20 points per game (20.1) compared to the 14.6 per game average in 36 games with Julio on the field. Matt Ryan is still the QB (for now) and they obviously have built a rapport over the years. Kyle Pitts will eventually eat into the share, but it is hard to see it happening in Week 1 of his rookie season.

Deandre Hopkins | $7800 | 10.5% | ARI @ TEN

We listed Kyler Murray as a stud QB to pay up for so it makes sense to pair his top pass catcher with him. A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore do not pose much of a threat to the target share for Deandre Hopkins and the Titans were ranked 29^th against the wide receiver position in 2020. The Clemson alumn checks in as the WR5 in the Fantasy Data lineup optimizer. You cannot go wrong with either of these two wideouts.

Tight End

Travis Kelce | $8300 | 15.8% | CLE @ KC

Travis Kelce will likely be a regular in this column, but you cannot pay up for him every week. This may be a week to do so. The total on this game sits at 54.5 with the Chiefs projected to put up 30 of those points. To make things even better, the Browns were 28^th against the tight-end position on DK in 2020. Juicy. This is a week you can expect Kelce to pay off his large salary. Look for some value below to be sure you can fit him in your lineup.

T.J. Hockenson | $4900 | 3.7% | SF @ DET

Typically we want to exploit bad defenses against a certain position. Sometimes volume and opportunity trump that. Enter T.J. Hockenson. The San Francisco 49ers were the number one defense against the position in 2020. The things that are in the Iowa grad’s favor are the volume mentioned above. There simply are no experienced receivers in Detroit for quarterback Jared Goff to look to. Furthermore, word out of camp is that these two have already developed a strong chemistry. Hockenson did average 11.0 DK points per game in 2020 and that number should only go up in 2021 with him being a major focus of the offense.

Sleepers to Separate From the Pack

Up next we give you some players to help differentiate your lineup from the masses and give you the edge you need to compete in some of the bigger tournaments. Just like the section above, we highlight two players at each position except now instead of studs, you get players that are expected to be less than 10% owned on the main slate.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill | $6500 | 7.9% | ARI @ TEN

We head to Nashville yet again to target this likely high-scoring affair. Not only is Ryan Tannehill set to be on the lower side of ownership, but he is also a great value at $6,500. In 2020, the former Miami Dolphin averaged a healthy 21.9 DK points per game. This number would give him over 3X return on this slate and it would take a complete flipping of the expected game script to keep him from achieving that here. You also get the added upside of some potential points on the ground here.

Matt Ryan | $6000 | 2.6% | PHI @ ATL

We pegged Calvin Ridley as a stud to pay up for. His quarterback is worthy of a play this week as well. Especially at such low ownership and price. This game has a total of 48.5 with Atlanta projected to score 26 of those points. Despite the veteran’s up and down season in 2020, at $6k he only needs to score 15 points to return value. That should be no problem against an Eagles secondary that struggles against the position. The one negative is that Matt Ryan brings zero upsides to the rushing game.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon | $6200 | 6.8% | MIN @ CIN

As with Dalvin Cook mentioned earlier, Joe Mixon is one of the few bell-cow backs remaining. Gone is Giovani Bernard to Tampa. The backfield is Mixon’s, and only Mixon’s. In a game that is sure to have some pace to it, the oft-injured running back brings some passing game upside as well. He brings 45 point upside to the table (Week 4, 2020 vs. Jaguars) and is a pretty safe bet to hit value at the small price tag of $6.2k.

Antonio Gibson | $5900 | 4.7% | LAC @ WFT

It feels like stealing to see Antonio Gibson this cheap. Pre-injury in 2020, the Memphis grad was giving us 20 plus points consistently and even posted a 39.6 burger on Dallas in Week 12. Deemed fully healthy and being told he will receive a Christian McCaffrey-type role in 2021, now is the time to play the youngster. His price will only rise going forward. The matchup is on the tougher side as the Chargers were 8^th best against the RB in DK scoring, but as with Hockenson earlier, volume and opportunity trump the matchup here.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown | $7100 | 6.8% | ARI @ TEN

Pairing A.J. Brown with Tannehill could result in a nice return on your investment for Week 1. We have talked about the secondary issues in Arizona, the game script, and the addition of Julio Jones. All of the stars are aligning for the young stud to be the WR1 in Week 1. Brown was the WR6 in DK scoring on a point per game basis and is $700 cheaper than his opponent Hopkins. If you wanted to, you could get Hopkins and Brown in your lineup and still be able to surround them with solid plays. This is a game we are attacking heavily.

Corey Davis | $4900 | 4.7% | NYJ @ CAR

Jamison Crowder has been ruled out. Many DFS players will instantly pivot to Elijah Moore as the wideout to ride with for this game and that will drive up ownership. Rookie Zach Wilson and Corey Davis showed nice chemistry in the preseason and it is hard to trust a rookie wideout in Week 1, regardless of the skill set. Give us the seasoned veteran here and count on the former Titan to take advantage of getting out of the shadow of A.J. Brown. All that is needed to hit the value is 12.25 points. Take advantage of the rookie hype with Moore and play Davis for an advantage.

Tight End

Austin Hooper | $4000 | <1% | CLE @ KC

We hit on this game earlier with Travis Kelce. The over/under is 54.5. The Chiefs (30^th) were worse than the Browns (29^th) against the position and Baker is going to have to try and keep pace somehow. OBJ was listed as questionable as of Friday. If Beckham does miss Week 1, Hooper becomes an even better value at just $4k. The former Falcon finished 2020 on a high note scoring 13.7 or more points in four of five contents.

Dallas Goedert | $4800 | <1% | PHI @ ATL

It appears to be all good again in the city of brotherly love between the Eagles and Zach Ertz. However, this does not change the fact that he is just old and broken down. Dallas Goedert is the future and should see much more success in 2021. New Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees likes to blitz a lot, meaning Hurts will need to get the ball out quickly. This is where Goedert can get his points. Even if he gets 7 catches for 50 yards, he hits value. Atlanta struggled against the tight end (28^th) and the South Dakota alumn did average 10.9 DK points per game in 2020. This is just .01 PPG less than T.J. Hockenson. Take advantage of the low ownership projections.

My Favorites

In this section, we will give you one play from each position for the week that we like the most. This will be a player that likely will give you a high upside at a lower cost than their counterparts and also come with a low ownership projection. Here you go!

Quarterback

Jameis Winston | $5200 | 3.7% | GB @ NO

Jameis Winston came on strong in the preseason and took the starting job from Taysom Hill. These Saints are projected to score 22.75 points in a game with a total of 49. Despite missing Michael Thomas, Winston has plenty of sneaky weapons at his disposal and likely will be chasing the superior Green Bay team most of the game. At $5200, we only need 13 points. This should be no problem for the former Buccaneer as he gives us some upside with his legs as well. Expect to see a ton of dump-offs to the aforementioned Kamara, boosting his yardage totals one screenplay at a time.

Running Back

Najee Harris | $6300 | 8.9% | PIT @ BUF

The way to attack this Buffalo Bills defense is on the ground. See Kansas City at Buffalo Week 6 of 2020. The Steelers did not draft Najee Harris in the first round to let him sit on the sideline. You would have to think Mike Tomlin’s game plan will be to keep Josh Allen and company on the sideline as much as possible. The way to do that is by establishing the run. The danger here is if the Steelers fall behind early and have to play catch up. Pittsburgh’s defense should be just good enough to keep them in it, despite the loss of Bud Dupree. Look for the rookie to make some noise in Week 1.

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle | $3600 | <1% | MIA @ NE

This is one of the projected lower-scoring games with a total of just 43.5. But, Will Fuller is suspended, Preston Williams is questionable, and Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant are just bit pieces. DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle should dominate targets from Tua and the latter has that college connection going with his signal-caller. Look for the duo to connect on at least one deep ball that will instantly pay off the low $3600 salary for the rookie.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst | $3700 | <1% | PHI @ ATL

This is a bit of a risk, but one that could pay off big time. This game has been talked about quite a bit and the key to unlocking a big payday could be the forgotten tight end in Atlanta. The play is not for the weak of heart but keep in mind that new Falcons coach Arthur Smith utilized two tight ends a lot in Tennessee with Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith. The Eagles (27^th) were terrible against the position in DK scoring and this game has all the makings of a barn burner. If you are looking for a cheaper, high upside play, the former Raven is one to consider.

Summing It All Up

As we all know, football is unpredictable, we make these picks using the data available to us at fantasydata.com and try to help our readers make educated, thoughtful decisions when creating their DK lineup. If you find this helpful or have any comments, be sure to notate them below. Thank you for reading.

Check out our DFS Tools

NFL Draftkings Picks: Week 1