Daily Fantasy Golf Tips
Digest data and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition, and try out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Olympic Men’s Golf Competition
Recap from last week: He said he was playing the best golf of his career but it was hard to understand what he meant since he had missed several cuts leading up to last week’s 3M Open, but he proved he was closer to contending than we all thought and won the 3M Open by two shots over Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, and Jhonattan Vegas with a score of -15 – congrats to Cameron Champ on his victory!
Preview for the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition: We have only seen golf at the Olympics three times ever – in 1900, 1904, and in 2016 – this year’s version will mark five years since we saw Justin Rose win in 2016 when the Olympic tournament was held in Brazil. The field is fairly strong but small – it’s unfortunate that Jon Rahm tested positive for COVID-19 AGAIN so he had to withdraw and Bryson DeChambeau also tested positive so he’s out and Patrick Reed is in as a result for the U.S. We get to see recent Open Championship winner Collin Morikawa compete, Justin Thomas is here, Xander Schauffele will tee it up, Rory McIlroy has made the trip over to Japan, this year’s Master champ, Hideki Matsuyama is of course in action and proudly representing Japan, and there are many other talented golfers in action, as well. Olympic Men’s Golf Competition winners all time include Justin Rose in 2016, George Lyon (of Canada) in 1904, and Charles Sands (of USA) in 1900.
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Tournament purse: There is of course no prize money or FedEx Cup points awarded at this event – country pride is what the gold, silver, and bronze winners receive, and that’s invaluable to them.
Course and key stats: Kasumigaseki Country Club – East Course is 7,447 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. It’s hard to say what the winning score will be at this point, but we should hear more about the course and the difficulty level of it throughout the week. Some of the core key stats to include in your custom models this week are strokes gained: off-the-tee, strokes gained: approach, par 4s gained from 500+ yards, and sand saves gained.
The field: The field was supposed to include 60 players, but now with Jon Rahm’s late pullout due to testing positive for COVID-19, there is no replacement for him, so we will only see 59 players in action this week. Most of us know at least half of the field names thanks to following the PGA Tour, but there are golfers beyond the top 30 or so that we have never heard their names before. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B+.
Three questions I have about the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition this week:
1. How will players adapt to a very different type of tournament? There’s no money on the line or FedEx Cup points, so it will be interesting to see how motivated players are – competing for your country is a huge honor and I expect every player to be on their A-game. Countries do tend to pay their athletes money though for winning gold and other medals, but the amount is nominal compared to winning or placing high in a tournament on the PGA Tour.
2. Will a whole new course in a different country play a factor? I’m sure a lot of these golfers have never even been to Japan let alone play competitive golf in the beautiful country, so seeing how their games translate in Japan will be interesting. The two Japanese golfers Hideki Matsuyama and Rikuya Hoshino should feel right at home and I expect at least Matsuyama to play very well – they likely even have past course experience to draw from which could be a big advantage.
3. Will more players test positive for COVID-19? We know that COVID-19 tests don’t always reveal a positive outcome on the first try if a person actually has the virus, so it’s entirely possible that a golfer or two will test positive before or during competition and will be forced to withdraw – let’s sure hope not, but it’s possible.
Lineup construction strategy this week: It’s a small field for Olympic competition and there will be no cut of course, so you can get creative and go risky if you’d like when building lineups. I’ll likely go in a hybrid lineup direction like I usually do for most PGA Tour tournaments, but you have to think that the winner will come from the top 5 or top 10 at the top, so getting two or three of them into most of your lineups will be important. There will be a ton of duplicate lineups this week with just 59 players to choose from, so be sure to look at projected ownership if numbers become available, and you might want to leave $500-$1,000+ on the table to improve the likelihood that your lineups will be as unique as possible, especially in the larger GPPs.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance’s at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information and stats, also.
The $10K+ Range
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Morikawa is smoking hot these days – he’s coming off the massive win at The Open Championship, he had a T4 at the U.S. Open, a runner-up at the Memorial Tournament, a T8 at the PGA Championship, and that’s all just in his past five starts. He also won the WGC-Workday Championship earlier this year and has eight top 8’s on the season including those two wins. I like that he’s of Japanese descent as well, it could give him extra motivation to win gold this week to honor his family heritage. Everything looks to be on the up and up with Collin this week – he’s the most expensive player on DK to own but he’s certainly worth it.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Schauffele has had a somewhat quiet season since he hasn’t won just yet, but does have seven top 7’s with three runner-up or co-runner-up finishes. His ball-striking is almost always impressive every week he plays, and he has a solid all-around game that consistently nets him high finishes. He should finish in the top 5 or top 10, but whether he’s standing on the podium to receive a medal – time will tell.
Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – The pride of Japan has been practicing hard for this week – he won The Masters in April but I think winning gold at the Olympics in his native country might even top that spectacular green jacket of his. Outside of his short game, he’s extremely impressive including gaining strokes on the field on approach and ball-striking in eleven straight starts. I think he will put it all together this week and finish high – I would love to see him win gold and he very well could if he gains a stroke or two putting.
The $9K Range
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Hovland has won on both the PGA Tour and the European Tour this season – in fact, he won two starts ago at the BMW International Open a month or so ago. He has eight top 10’s, is coming off a T12 at the Open Championship where he closed out with a 66, and he plays a complete game with no weaknesses.
Shane Lowry (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – Lowry had a bunch of pressure on him to perform at The Open Championship given he was the defending champ from 2019, and he came through with a respectable finish placing T12. He has six top 23’s in his last eight starts including a T4 at the PGA Championship, a T6 at the Memorial Tournament, and a T9 at the RBC Heritage. His stats have been superb for quite some time now, especially his approach and around the green play. Keep an eye on him this week, especially if he gets some luck of the Irish going for him too – a top 10 is a very realistic outcome for him.
Paul Casey (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Since late January, Casey has been playing very consistent and impressive golf on both the PGA Tour and European Tour. He won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in January and has seven other top 8’s between both tours this year. He’s a player you can rely on to do well for you on any given week, even with a weak putting game that he often has.
The $8K Range
MacKenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Hughes really turned it on late last season and it looks like he’s going to do the same again this season as he has three top 15’s in his last four starts including a T6 two weeks ago at The Open Championship. He often gets by due to his strong short game, but his approach stats have looked good lately too including gaining almost 4 strokes at the U.S. Open last month. I really like him as a mid-tier value play this week, and he plays well into hybrid and balanced lineups.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – Conners has been a bit off over the past couple of months, but he’s coming off a T15 at The Open Championship and he has seven top 10’s on the campaign. He is pretty much an automatic bet to be excellent off-the-tee and his approach numbers are often among the best in any tournament, and he’s typically in the top 10 when he gains strokes with his short game. I’m hoping we see more of the same from Corey that we did at The Open Championship, there are no stats available from that tournament, but I’m thinking they would look good if shot tracker was collecting data there.
Cameron Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Finding my third player from this range was a bit of a challenge, but I settled on Smith since I like how his approach game has been trending since the U.S. Open, he has five top 10’s this season and did win the Zurich Classic with teammate Marc Leishman, and I like how he grinds it out with his impressive short game. I don’t love him at his price tag, but I like his upside and he should finish top 25 at the very least.
The $7K Range
Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – With three wins on the Korn Ferry Tour this season including back-to-back wins in June, Pereira certainly has my attention. His two most recent starts yielded a T5 and a T6 – you can argue that the Barbasol Championship and 3M Open had weak fields, but he still produced nonetheless and is a supreme birdie-making machine. He’s arguably the top play this week given his upside and salary number – the only knock against him is that he will be likely at least 20% owned.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – Another steal on the board is Vegas who has four top 11’s in his last six starts including his co-runner-up finish last week at the 3M Open. He has been a beast with his woods and irons (excluding his wedges) since early May, and has even been gaining nicely with the putter recently, as well. He did lose almost 6 strokes in his short game at the U.S. Open and over 6 strokes at the Byron Nelson, but still made the cut in both events thanks to his strong ball-striking. He’s the 28th highest-priced player in the field on DK, so it shouldn’t be too hard for him to boast lots of value in DFS lineups.
Antoine Rozner (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Finding a third player that I can get behind in the $7K range was more difficult than it should have been, but I landed on Rozner who’s a cut-maker, and did win the Qatar Masters on the European Tour back in March. There isn’t a ton of PGA Tour data for him, only three tournaments worth, in fact, but he gained over 8 strokes with his approach play at the Memorial Tournament to finish T18 – no thanks to losing almost 5 strokes with his short game, which seems to be his Achilles heel.
The $6K Range
Ryan Fox (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Fox mostly just trots around the European Tour outside of some of the bigger tournaments on the PGA Tour including Open Championships, U.S. Opens, and WGC’s, but he does have four top 14’s in his last eight events, and he made the cut at The Open Championship in his most recent start. I would recommend avoiding the $6K range as much as possible with your lineups this week, but the three I feature here are worth a look.
Wu Ashun (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Ashun is a European Tour player hailing from China – he has only missed two cut lines in 11 starts this season, and regularly finishes in the top 20, 30, or 40, plus he had a T9 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January. He also finished T30 at the 2016 Olympics thanks to a solid approach game and gained with his putting, and I expect another finish around the same this week which is perfectly fine based on his low salary number.
Henrik Norlander (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Norlander is my favorite $6K play this week as he’s coming off a top 5 at the Barbasol Championship, and has made five straight cuts and three of them were top 28’s. His stats have been pretty sound over the past month and a half or so, and I think that the Swede is a pretty decent last man in for your lineups this week.
Results of the 15 players I picked for last week’s 3M Open
The 10K+ Range
- Louis Oosthuizen – T2
- Tony Finau – T28
- Dustin Johnson – Cut
The $9K Range
- Matthew Wolff – T39
- Sergio Garcia – T25
- Robert Macintyre – Cut
The $8K Range
- Maverick McNealy – T16
- Patton Kizzire – T39
- Luke List – T58
The $7K Range
- Hank Lebioda – Withdrew after round 2 – was T36 I believe at the time
- Troy Merritt – T39
- Jhonattan Vegas – T2
The $6K Range
- Roger Sloan – T16
- Kevin Tway – Cut
- Cameron Percy – T34
