DFS Golf Picks: The Charles Schwab Challenge
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you!
The Charles Schwab Challenge
Preview for the Charles Schwab Challenge: It’s always a bit tough coming off of a major and returning to a more typical event, but the one this week at Colonial Country Club is still pretty good with five of the top 10 players in the world in action! This event dates back to 1946, and Charles Schwab has been the title sponsor since 2019. The tournament record score here is -21 and it’s held by Zach Johnson who lit up Colonial in 2010 – his first of two wins at this venue. Winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge over the last five years include Jason Kokrak in 2021, Daniel Berger in 2020, Kevin Na in 2019, Justin Rose in 2018, and Kevin Kisner in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $8.4M, the winner collects $1.512M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Colonial Country Club will host this tournament for the 77th time – it’s a short 7,209 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass and average a small 5,000 square feet. The winning score at this event over the last ten years ranges from -9 to -20, so it’s largely dependent on how the Texas winds are blowing in any given year. Some key stats to focus on this week, in order, are strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: approach, driving accuracy, strokes gained: total, and strokes gained: tee to green.
The field: We got a fairly small 120-player field this week with the top 65 players plus ties advancing to round 3 and round 4 after round 2. 75 players made the cut last year, so 62.5% played all four rounds. We got a few elite players going this week including last week’s PGA Championship winner, Justin Thomas, world #1, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, last year’s winner, Jason Kokrak, Viktor Hovland, and other talented golfers also. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the Charles Schwab Challenge:
1. Who are the 10 best putters over the last 24 rounds? Putting is this week’s most significant stat, and the top gainers in this stat category over the past 24 rounds are Lucas Herbert, Sam Burns, Abraham Ancer, Beau Hossler, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Troy Merritt, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ian Poulter.
2. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total at this event over the last five years? The top stroke gainers at Colonial over the past half-decade are Bubba Watson (4 rounds), Kevin Na (14 rounds), Collin Morikawa (8 rounds), Jordan Spieth (20 rounds), Justin Rose (16 rounds), Gary Woodland (8 rounds), Tony Finau (16 rounds), Sebastian Munoz (6 rounds), Emiliano Grillo (18 rounds), and Brian Harman (20 rounds).
3. Which 10 players does your custom model like the most this week? These players include Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Talor Gooch, Kevin Na, Tommy Fleetwood, Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk, and Viktor Hovland.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: With a player field that’s 36 players lower than the max, a fairly high percentage of players will get the opportunity to play all four rounds – last year over 60% of golfers played all 72 holes. So I recommend going with stars and scrubs’ lineups – you may even want to play around with some $10K+ duos such as Thomas and Scheffler, for example. Pay attention to projected ownership on Wednesday and pivot where you feel comfortable, plus, as always, leave at least $300 on the table if you’re competing in the large GPPs.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Spieth has really played exceptionally well on this course, one that he knows very well in his home state of Texas. He has had three runner-up or co-runner-ups since 2015, a win in 2016, and two other top 10’s in the last seven years. He won three starts ago at the RBC Heritage, was 2nd two starts ago, and finished 34th at the PGA Championship last week gaining 7.01 strokes ball-striking – just his putter let him down losing 3.24. His flat stick has been weak over the past few months, but on this track he’s been masterful with his putter, so he should have another top 10 this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 2nd, 2020 – T10, 2019 – T8, 2018 – T32, and 2017 – T2.
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – He came so close to winning his first PGA Tour title last week and it would have been huge to do it at the PGA Championship – unfortunately, Justin Thomas got the best of him in a three-hole playoff. He has four top 6’s in his last five starts if you include the Zurich Classic, and everything including his putter has been solid lately. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T59.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – It’s interesting that the most correlated stat for success here is putting and Morikawa isn’t typically a good putter, but still had a runner-up two years ago and finished just outside the top 10 last year. His ball-striking leads the way and he’s always a threat to finish top 10 as a result. He hasn’t had a top 5 since the Masters, but that was only four starts ago, and is capable of winning any time he tees it up. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T14 and 2020 – 2nd.
The $9K Range
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – Ancer had a solid week last week at the season’s second major with a 9th place finish thanks to excellent ball-striking and putting – gaining over 11 strokes combined between those two stat categories. He has two top 9’s in his last five starts, and if his flat stick is on cue this week, then he should have his third consecutive top 15 at this event. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T14, 2020 – T14, 2019 – T58, and 2018 – T52.
Max Homa (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) – He has really had a nice, consistent stretch since the Phoenix Open with a win two starts ago, a 13th last week, a T10 at The Genesis Invitational, and four other top 21’s during that stretch since mid-February. He missed the cut here two years ago, but did have a top 30 three years ago, and his game is better than ever now, so expect a top 20 this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2020 – Cut and 2019 – T27.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Burns has sort of been up and down for a while now, but did win five starts ago at the Valspar Championship, he had a 2nd at the Zurich Classic three starts ago, and finished 20th last week thanks to strong approach play and putting. He’s a bit of a boom or bust option this week given he has two missed cuts in his last four starts, but the talent is there to win on a regular basis now, so the risk is worth it. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T31 and 2018 – Cut.
The $8K Range
Davis Riley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – He just keeps impressing with four top 9’s in his last seven starts including the Zurich Classic, and he’s coming off a 13th last week where he gained 11.47 strokes ball-striking in an elite field. His putter has also been great lately too with over 12 strokes gained over his last three starts including 9.41 at the Mexico Open three starts ago when he finished 5th. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: None.
Kevin Na (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Na has really showed us something with his approach play over his last four starts as he has gained anywhere from 3.20 to 9.44 in the key stat category and has three top 23’s over his last five starts including a 14th at The Masters. He won here three years ago where his ball-striking and putting were sublime, and has had three top 10’s here since 2015. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T32, 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Won, and 2018 – T4.
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – He tends to have teen and 20-something finishes, and pops for top 10’s here and there including a T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational seven starts ago when he gained strokes across the board. He has good finishes here and could improve on his T14 from last year, so top 10 upside is certainly there this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T14, 2020 – T43, 2019 – T29, and 2018 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Harman has made the cut here eight straight years – has three top 10’s, two other top 25’s, and his worst finish is a T31, so he’s a horse for a course at Colonial. He has five top 35’s over his last six starts including a T9 at the Wells Fargo Championship two starts ago – led by his ball-striking where he gained 7.99 strokes on the field and gained strokes across the board. Everything aligns quite well for Brian this week – he’s my favorite mid-tier play. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T8, 2020 – T23, 2019 – T31, 2018 – T14, and 2017 – T7.
Justin Rose (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – He won here four years ago and has been decent recently with three top 26’s in his last four starts including a 13th last week thanks to sound approach play and putting. Rose has had three top 20’s here over the last four years, and I can see him putting up another one this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T20, 2020 – T3, 2019 – T58, and 2018 – Won.
Harold Varner III (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Varner III won on the Asian Tour in February, and has three top 6’s over his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. He has gained strokes on approach in six straight events that featured shot tracker and has gained seven times over his last nine events that tracked short game strokes. He has had two decent finishes here over the last two years, and I think his floor is a top 30 this week. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T32, 2020 – T19, and 2017 – Cut.
The $6K Range
Stephan Jaeger (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – The $6K range is a bit rough this week as you might imagine, but Jaeger caught my eye as he has finished anywhere from T6 to T38 over his last four starts if you include the Zurich Classic, and good approach play is blazing the trail with over 11 strokes gained collectively over his last three starts. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: None.
Peter Malnati (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Malnati has made five cut lines in a row and is coming off his best start since last October with a T9 at the Byron Nelson. He has been putting very well all year long so far, his around the green play has been solid since early last month, and has been good on approach in three out of his last four starts, as well. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut and 2019 – T40.
Brandon Wu (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – He had a T3 seven starts ago at the Puerto Rico Open, a T2 three starts ago at the Mexico Open, and has five top 33’s in his last seven starts if you count the Zurich Classic. Most of his stats look nice too, so he’s really quite a decent play in the mid $6K range. Charles Schwab Challenge finishes over the last five years: None.
