The John Deere Classic DFS Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the John Deere Classic, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS DraftKings lineups. Best of luck this week!
The John Deere Classic
Preview for the John Deere Classic: This event has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 1971, starting out as the Quad Cities Open at the Crow Valley Country Club in Davenport, Iowa. John Deere has been the title sponsor since 1999 and TPC Deere Run has been the track used for this tournament since 2000. The record here is held by Michael Kim – shooting a ridiculous -27 in 2018 and winning by an insane 8 strokes. Winners of the John Deere Classic over the last five editions include Lucas Glover in 2021, 2020’s event was canceled due to the pandemic, Dylan Frittelli in 2019, Michael Kim in 2018, Bryson DeChambeau in 2017, and Ryan Moore in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $7.1M, the winner collects $1.278M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Deere Run is 7,289 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the last decade ranges from -18 to -27, so scoring here is great as this is one of the easiest tracks the pros play on an annual basis. Some key stats to pay attention to this week are, in order, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: total.
The field: We again have a full 156-player field this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will play the weekend rounds on Saturday and Sunday. We have a weak field in action this week with the likes of Webb Simpson, Adam Hadwin, Denny McCarthy, and others in action. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a D-.
Three questions I have about the John Deere Classic:
1. Which 10 players have been the most accurate off the tee blocks over the last 24 rounds? Driving accuracy percentage is the most important key stat this week by far, and the most accurate players recently are Ryan Armour, Brian Stuard, Brendon Todd, Chez Reavie, Satoshi Kodaira, David Hearn, Tyler Duncan, Brice Garnett, Hayden Buckley, and Martin Laird.
2. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total here since 2017? Dylan Frittelli, Lucas Glover, Adam Schenk, Charles Howell III, Chris Stroud, Patrick Rodgers, Adam Svensson, Scott Brown, Patton Kizzire, and Cameron Percy.
3. Which 10 players does my custom model like the most this week? Lucas Glover, Adam Long, Tyler Duncan, Webb Simpson, Brendon Todd, John Huh, Kevin Streelman, Anirban Lahiri, David Lipsky, and Ryan Armour.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: For this week, I’d advise going fairly balanced or look at hybrid lineups as the top players aren’t really standouts and the depth isn’t too impressive either, so look for players who are good cut-makers with some upside, and roll them out. Look at projected ownership on Wednesday if you have the tools to do so, and leave at least $300 on the table when competing in the large GPPs.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Webb Simpson (Salary: DraftKings – $10.6K) – The most expensive golfer on the slate is a shadow of his former self, but he’s coming off a T13 last week at the Travelers Championship where he gained 6.37 strokes ball-striking and has three top 27’s in his last four starts including a 20th at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes across the board. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
Adam Hadwin (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Hadwin has had a pretty solid 2022 so far with four top 9’s since mid-March including a T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a 7th two weeks ago at the U.S. Open where he gained strokes in every major stat category including 5.21 putting. He’s above average in every stat category – can get hot at times on approach and his bread and butter is around the green play where he has a deft touch and gains strokes like crazy on a consistent basis. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $10.1K) – He’s starting to make a name for himself with two top 5’s in his last three starts including a T2 last week at the Travelers Championship where he gained strokes in every stat category including 7.54 ball-striking and 6.85 with his short game. He has made six consecutive cut lines and has upside, so he’s worth a look despite his high salary number. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
The $9K Range
Charles Howell III (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – He has had a decent season based on his age and talent level with a T4 at the Texas Open six starts ago and has four top 35’s in his last six starts. He also has a solid track record at this tournament including a T6 three years ago, and is worth a look for your hybrid and balanced lineups this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T23, 2019 – T6, and 2017 – T19.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – He has been good recently with two top 7’s in his last three starts including a 7th at the U.S. Open where his ball-striking and putting were on full display. He’s one of the world’s best putters and has gained more than 27 strokes on the greens over his last six starts combined. He hasn’t been so spectacular here, but did have a T34 four years ago and is playing some of the very best golf of his career right now, so there’s a chance he finishes high this week if he can gain a few strokes on approach. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, and 2018 – T34.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – There wasn’t much else to work with in the $9K range, but McNealy might be worth considering since he finished T18 here a year ago and gained in every major stat category except for off the tee where he only lost 0.73. He hasn’t been so great lately with two straight missed cuts, so you may want to look at Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9.1K) who has two top 15’s in his last four starts to go along with two missed cuts. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T18 and 2017 – T44.
The $8K Range
Nick Hardy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – I like what Hardy brings to the table as he has four straight top 35’s including a 14th at the U.S. Open and a T8 last week at the Travelers Championship where he gained strokes across the board. He also has some experience on this track, so that’s a positive, and I expect much better than his T43 from four years ago as he’s a lot better now. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T43 and 2017 – T55.
Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Long has a couple of top 25’s in as many starts and has four top 35’s in his last six starts including a T15 at the Mexico Open. He also had a top 25 here a year ago, and I expect something similar this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T23 and 2019 – T53.
Lucas Glover (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – My top-ranked custom model player has been really solid on approach and ball-striking lately, and just needs to figure out his short game to have more success. He had a 23rd at the PGA Championship four starts ago and has made four straight cut lines. He won here a year ago and has back-to-back top 10’s dating back to 2019, so he’s worth a shot on one or more of your core lineups this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won, 2019 – T10, and 2017 – T25.
The $7K Range
John Huh (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – I like that Huh finished T7 here four years ago and that he has three straight top 25’s including a T13 last week where he gained strokes across the board. He has been sound with his ball-striking and around the greens lately, and could very well put up another top 25 this week if his golf game holds up. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T50, 2018 – T7, and 2017 – Cut.
Adam Schenk (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Schenk had a T9 seven starts ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, and has two top 26’s over his last three starts including a 24th at the U.S. Open where he actually gained strokes across the board. It’s also worth noting that he gained 9.28 strokes ball-striking at the Memorial three starts ago to finish T26. Add to it that he has two straight top 6’s here since 2019, and Adam looks like a solid roster option this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T4, 2019 – T6, and 2018 – Cut.
Adam Svensson (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – He has five consecutive weekends played and two straight top 25’s including a T21 at the RBC Canadian Open where he gained strokes across the board. In one start at the John Deere Classic, he earned a T18 in 2019, and I don’t see why another top 20 can’t become a reality for him this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T18.
The $6K Range
Lee Hodges (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – You would be wise to stay out of the $6K range this week as it’s rather weak as you might imagine. Hodges is an alright option though as he has three straight top 50’s including a T25 last week where his ball-striking and putting combined for 7.66 strokes gained. He popped for a top 10 earlier this year at The Honda Classic, and it’s possible he puts up another one this week given his less-than-average opponents. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
Bill Haas (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Haas has been respectable this year so far thanks to his solid short game play, and he actually gained 4.61 on approach last week to finish T25. He had a top 10 here three years ago, and while I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, it’s possible that he puts up his third top 27 in his last four starts this week. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – T10, and 2018 – 72nd.
Hayden Buckley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – We saw his name a little bit at the U.S. Open thanks to a 14th place finish and he did it by gaining strokes across the board. He gained in every major stat category last week also, except for a 3.58 loss around the greens which hurt him a lot and he finished T41 as a result. I would look for a top 40 finish from Buckley this week, and he does have the potential to finish top 10 given the awful field and his 14th place finish at the PGA Tour’s most recent major championship. John Deere Classic finishes over the last five years: None.
