2022 NFL Predictions From FantasyData Staff

2022 NFL Predictions

Question: Tell Us More About One Of Your Fantasy Breakout Players and Why You Like Them

Shane Manila – As the 11th ranked dynasty quarterback Jalen Hurts upside is being significantly undervalued, while his QB6 in seasonal ADP is at least in his range of outcomes. FantasyData fantasy projections have him slotted in as the QB5 for 2022, and I very much think he can exceed that finish.  Hurts was not good as a passer in 2021, and still averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game, largely due to his rushing ability. On draft night the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown and then handed him a $100 million contract indicating that they would like to regress to heavier passing offense in 2022, which should mean a significant increase in Hurts 16 passing touchdowns from last year. With an improved receiver room and the continued ability to pile up fantasy points on the ground, Hurts could be the QB1 in 2022.         

Ryan Kirksey – Can a player really go from zero NFL snaps (and a season-long Lisfranc injury) to the true breakout running back in 2022? If any player can, it is going to be Travis Etienne, especially if you are playing in any kind of point-per-reception format. Let’s not forget, the guy scored 78 total touchdowns in 55 college games while playing on one of the top teams in the country. That means when he was playing with other pros like Tee Higgins, Amari Rodgers, Hunter Renfrow, and Ray-Ray McCloud, Etienne was the one scoring almost 1.5 touchdowns per game. James Robinson may be medically cleared to play for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 coming off his own Achilles injury, but that doesn’t mean he will be on the field, and it certainly doesn’t mean he will be playing at a 100% level. That should give Etienne a wide-open lane to grab hold of the heavy side of the timeshare. And if you give Etienne a wide-open lane, he is more than likely going to make the big play. In his last two years of school, Etienne averaged 6.74 yards per carry and 3.2 receptions per game. Teamed up with his college quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Etienne is about to go from zero snaps to being drafted in the second round in 2023.    

Dessy John – Rhamondre Stevenson is poised to see an increase in usage. As a bigger back who can protect the football, pass protect, and catch passes, he is in line to capture much of the opportunity left by the departures of James White and Brandon Bolden. He should continue to split early down work with Damien Harris, but absorbing third-down snaps can make Stevenson a smash to outproduce his ADP as the RB36 in PPR formats. With Harris entering a contract year, the Patriots could even give Stevenson an increased share of early-down and goal-line work, which is an opportunity he has clearly earned. With the current ambiguity in the New England running back room, this is a chance for fantasy managers to secure a possible top-15 back for pennies on the dollar.  

Jake Oliver – Cole Kmet and the Bears are adjusting to a new offensive identity. This will give more passing work to Kmet as seen by him getting three targets in a couple of minutes of time in their Week 2 preseason game. Kmet’s a 23-year-old tight end that’s on the rise. He was a TE2 last year while scoring zero touchdowns. I fully predict for him to do very well this year in terms of tight ends. Being the #2 option on an offense will give him over 100 targets.If he can get a few more touchdowns, he will finish as a low-end TE1 that can be had at TE2 ADP.

Jack Camenzind –  I am most excited about Elijah Moore heading into 2022. After getting off to a sluggish start in his rookie year, the former Ole Miss standout put on a show from weeks eight through 13. In Half-PPR scoring, Moore ranked as the WR2 in total points during that stretch and trailed only Justin Jefferson. Unfortunately, a quad strain sidelined Moore for the remainder of his rookie season but the potential for greatness is there. With a slew of offseason improvements, the New York Jets offense is set to take the next step and all is resting on the shoulders of Zach Wilson. If Wilson is able to improve upon a lousy rookie season, Elijah Moore should be a direct beneficiary. Fantasydata’s projections currently have the second-year receiver ranked as the WR34 for 2022. I think that Moore could greatly outperform that and push himself into the top-24 wide receivers in fantasy football this coming season.        

Aaron Schill –  One player who is poised to break out this season is Darnell Mooney of the Chicago Bears. After letting Allen Robinson go via free agency, that alone opens up a nice opportunity for Mooney to take over as the top wide receiver in this offense. On top of that, the Bears didn’t draft a wide receiver until Round 3 of the 2022 NFL Draft. Last year even with Robinson, Mooney had four games where he went for 120+ yards, two of which came when Justin Fields was the quarterback. Mooney finished the 2021 season as the WR23 in PPR leagues and has every opportunity ahead of him to finish as a strong WR2 this year. He’s currently projected to finish as the WR32 in our FantasyData projections, but I believe he has an even better season than last year. The talent, opportunity, and steady quarterback situation are all lining up for Mooney, making him someone you absolutely want on your fantasy teams this year.    

Bradley Stalder –  Courtland Sutton is poised for a massive breakout. While many forget, he was a top 20 wide receiver back when Joe Flacco played for the Broncos. Sutton had over 1100 receiving yards and six touchdowns in the 2019 season. In 2020 he tore his ACL, and in 2021 was plagued by atrocious quarterback play and still recovering from his ACL tear. Enter Russell Wilson. Wilson, over the last three years, has had two wide receivers with at least eight touchdowns and 900 receiving yards each season. Sutton is the big-bodied prototypical touchdown-making deep threat wide receiver that Russell Wilson will be looking for. Oh yeah, and there is the Bible narrative. Do not be surprised if Sutton finishes the top 12, even though I only have him at about wide receiver 15.        

Seth Keller – A “fantasy breakout” can be defined in a multitude of ways. For me, a breakout player cements his name in the fantasy football conversation for the first time. Naturally, this lends itself to rookies as they haven’t been a part of the conversation until the current year. In 2022, the biggest breakout will be Romeo Doubs on the Green Bay Packers. Doubs has been turning heads all preseason and will have plenty of opportunities to catch passes from back-to-back MVP-winning quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The packers like to air the ball out and have Super Bowl aspirations hinging on their offense. If Doubs takes advantage of this preseason momentum and earns a significant snap count, he could easily lap other “breakout” candidates in 2022

Question: Tell Us More About One Of Your Fantasy BUST Players and Why You Don’t Like Them

Jack Camenzind – This may seem like low-hanging fruit but someone’s gotta say it. Antonio Gibson is a massive avoid for me this year, no questions asked. The guy is coming off of a season where he didn’t miss a single game but he had his fair share of disappointing performances and fumbling issues. Then in the offseason, the Commanders did their best to show the world that they don’t view Antonio Gibson as “the guy” as they made it their mission to not lose J.D. McKissic in free agency and they drafted Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round. Now in the preseason, Gibson isn’t even receiving the bulk of first-team carries through the first two weeks as Robinson has handled 14 to Gibson’s three. Now, most would assume that Gibson might be third in line with Robinson taking a strong share of the carries and McKissic taking receiving work. Does that just leave Gibson with scraps? Nothing is set in stone yet but Gibson’s entire situation has me fading him heavily, even at his RB26 projection.

Shane Manila – Deebo Samuel exploded in 2021 and finished as the WR2 in PPG with 21.5 fantasy points per game. I typically buy into a player being more the player they’ve consistently shown to be, rather than what they appeared to be in their most productive season. Entering the 2021 season Samuel never saw higher than an 18.6% target share, which jumped to 27.8% last year. He also scored 14 total touchdowns last season, including eight in the rushing game, after only scoring a total of seven touchdowns in his first two seasons. Samuel also needs to contend with a new quarterback under center in Trey Lance, who could decide to target George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk more than they were used in 2021. Lance could also threaten some of Samuel’s rushing production and steal some of the rushing attempts that went to Samuel inside the 10-yard line last year (9), and I find it unlikely Samuel sees 59 rushing attempts (career high) as he did last season.         

Ryan Kirksey – The list of Detroit Lions wide receivers who led the team in targets in their first 10 games of 2021 should come with a warning label. Before Sun God Amon-Ra St. Brown took over as the alpha wideout, this team was led by receivers Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond, and someone called Trinity Benson. That made tight end TJ Hockenson the leading receiver on the field by default. This year, with St. Brown, emerging, D’Andre Swift still drawing five targets per game, and the wide receiver massively upgraded, Hockenson is going to take a hit in his usage. You don’t sign D.J. Chark and spend the 12th pick of the draft on elite wideout Jameson Williams if you don’t plan to work them into the game plan heavily this year. People think back on Hockenson and remember him as some kind of elite tight-end option in 2021. In some cases that was true, but he had just as many games with three or fewer targets than he had with nine or more last season.           

Seth Keller – Calling a rookie a bust just feels like the epitome of a crotchety old man who takes the fun out of everything. Well, if that’s the case, call me a Negative Nancy or a Danny Downer, because Breece Hall is going to be a massive bust in 2022. The sad part is I actually like Hall’s profile and think that he can be good to better than good NFL back. My issue is with people comparing him to Jonathan Taylor. If that is what you are expecting from Breece Hall you are going to be massively disappointed! A fourth round (and rising!) ADP should turn drafters away from the backup running back on the New York Jets’ lowly offense. Yes, backup running back. There’s no telling how long it will last but, for the immediate future, Michael Carter is still the Jets’ lead rusher. In the famous words of Mark Cuban, “and for that reason, I’m out.”

Dessy John – Mark Andrews was undoubtedly a league winner in 2021. The combination of draft capital and position scarcity made him one of the two or three best fantasy draft picks of the year. However, it is tough to ignore just how uncharacteristic the Baltimore offense looked last season. The Ravens ranked ninth in pass attempts in 2021, after finishing dead last each of the previous two seasons. This is an often overlooked detail that was fueled by injuries to the defense, offensive line, and backfield. With the team back at full strength, I expect them to get back to their run-first identity. To make matters worse, Andrews averaged 21.76 fantasy points per game with Tyler Huntley at quarterback and only 14.9 with Lamar Jackson. The average with Jackson is also in line with his production over the previous two years. The departure of Marquise Brown to Arizona certainly helps, but popular breakout candidate Rashod Bateman could soak up a huge chunk of those vacated targets, making Andrews much riskier than people may believe.        

Jake Oliver – DK Metcalf is still being drafted as a WR1 which confuses me. He loses Russell Wilson and people are thinking he’s not going to drop in production? Metcalf will become a boom/bust player for the Seahawks. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, it’s likely that he struggles a ton. Geno Smith and Drew Lock are massive downgrades for him. The offense won’t score like it used and will be playing constantly from behind due to a porous defense. Sure, Metcalf will rack up 4th quarter points, but he’s likely in store for a late-end WR2 season. Yet, his ADP is as a WR1. I’m passing on that. He won’t finish near his ADP which means he’s a bust in my eyes. The final season point total will be good due to some blow-up weeks, but give me stability over volatility.