Brandin Cooks Fantasy Outlook 2022
I become convinced with every passing day that Brandin Cooks is the “Closing Time” of the Houston Texans. You remember the one-hit wonder song from Semisonic back in the 90’s, right?
“Closing time, you don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay heeeeeere!”
Amongst a plethora of other no-name teammates and blah fantasy options, Cooks is the one player who is thought of fondly by fantasy players. I guess Dameon Pierce could be the Texans’ “F.N.T.” and Brevin Jordan is “Secret Smile,” but really no one cares to invest too much of their time in those. “Closing Time” is what the concert crowd came to see.
On an otherwise forgettable team, just what are the prospects for Brandin Cooks as he enters year three with the Houston Texans? The Texans most assuredly won’t be a smash hit offense in 2022, but that hasn’t stopped Cooks from putting up borderline WR1 numbers in seasons past. Should we feel secure with Cooks as our second wide receiver in year two with Davis Mills? Let’s look at his fantasy prospects for the 2022 season.
No One Else in Houston Can Cook at Cooks’ Level
Saying that Brandin Cooks is the best wide receiver for the Houston Texans is like saying Top Gun: Maverick was the highest-earning movie of 2022. Yes, Maverick and Rooster led the pack, but they also earned $280 million more than any other movie this year. Cooks similarly lapped his teammates in every category this year. To list the receiving metrics where Cooks led his team would take the rest of the length of this column, but what’s especially impressive is the amount by which he bested his teammates.
Cooks more than DOUBLED any other Texans receiver in targets, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, target share, and fantasy points per game. His 84% snap share was 22% higher than Nico Collins, who checked in second at 61.9%. His nine red zone targets were the same as Nico Collins, Chris Conley, and Phillip Dorsett combined.
Those names should also tell us something about the state of his competition in the wide receiver room. Houston planned to address this problem by drafting John Metchie III out of Alabama with the 44th overall pick in the draft, but he will sadly miss the season with acute promyelocytic leukemia. It’s largely the same group that Cooks dominated last year.
Davis Mills May Not be a League-Winner, But He is Improving
Just a rookie out of Stanford in 2021, Davis Mills had quite a rocky beginning to his NFL career. After presumed starter Tyrod Taylor was limited to just six starts last year with hamstring and wrist injuries, Mills was installed as the primary quarterback and it took him a while to find his footing in the NFL. But once he did, it was a strong finish to the year.
Mills finished as a top-15 quarterback in five of six weeks from Weeks 13 to 18. And as Mills progressed, he lifted Cooks up with him. Cooks was WR14 in total points in half-point per reception formats from Week 14 to Week 18 last season. But that doesn’t even tell the whole story. Cooks missed one game in that span, so his 15 fantasy points per game over the other four contests ranked 11th among all wide receivers.
I would certainly not trust Mills to be able to provide enough of an aerial attack to accommodate two rosterable receivers on a week-to-week basis. But he definitely has eyes for Brandin Cooks, and so the massive target share that Cooks will demand can prop him firmly into the WR2 conversation.
Brandin Cooks Fantasy Projections for 2022
Our fantasy forecast for Cooks puts him squarely in the WR2 conversation, ranked 21st at the position heading into 2022. I think our own projections of 137 targets, 89 receptions, and 1,061 receiving yards are unimpeachable. But I personally have Cooks with a higher touchdown total than the five we have predicted. The combination of Davis Mills taking a step forward as the full-time starter, the Texans possessing a top-10 friendliest fantasy schedule this season, and the certainty that the Texans will be trailing in most of their games (Houston is not favored in any game this season), I think we see more like 7-8 touchdowns for Cooks.
If he does gain those extra 12-18 points from additional touchdowns, he would catapult directly into the WR14-16 range, which looks like an achievable outcome for Cooks. He may just be a one-hit wonder on this team, but it’s one you won’t get tired of in 2022. As we head into the last draft weekend of the year, Cooks is going as WR30 with an ADP of 71.4. That screams tremendous value to me and represents a price I would be willing to pay in any draft.
