Jonathan Taylor Fantasy 2022
Coming in the 2022 fantasy season, the wave seemed to be that Jonathan Taylor should be the first running back off the board for fantasy managers in 2022. By all accounts, you would be hard-pressed to make a counterargument. I mean, we all saw what Taylor was doing to opposing defenses last season, right? All the big runs? The increase in carries? Taylor was a straight beast last season. However, while I do think Jonathan Taylor is still going to be a top running back this season, the thought of whether or not Taylor should be the 1.01 is intriguing.
On its surface, it’s easy to say that Jonathan Taylor should be the 1.01 at the running back position. Taylor absolutely crushed it in 2021, rushing for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, leading all running backs in both categories. He also led all running backs in rushing attempts with 332 and averaged 5.5 y/a. In terms of fantasy production, Taylor finished second among running backs averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game. Taylor was just too good but that could be where the potential issues could come in.
Taylor’s Outrageous 2021 Season
If there was one thing that you could be happy about last season, it was that Jonathan Taylor was not only dominant but he was efficient with his touches early on in the season before really ramping up down the stretch as then quarterback Carson Wentz started to trend down. Over the first eight games of the season, Taylor averaged about 15 carries per game, averaged 81 yards per game over that span, and was putting up 5.3 y/a too. The icing on the cake was that Taylor was giving fantasy managers 16.4 fantasy points per game over this stretch.
To that point of the season, Taylor would slide in as the number two running back right behind Titans running back Derrick Henry. From Weeks 9-17, Henry would get injured and miss the rest of the regular season and Jonathan Taylor would take off, rushing for 1,162 yards (129 y/g), 12 rushing touchdowns, and averaging 24 fantasy points per game. His rushing attempts also went up to 23.4 carries per game as well. If you had Taylor on your fantasy teams, he was a big reason why your squad made it to the fantasy championships and even won the championship outright. I know he was for me in my CBS league that I joined last season, winning the chip in my first go (small flex but I’m just saying).
As far as efficiency goes, Taylor outclassed all running backs in several areas during the 2021 season. Taylor led all running backs in Breakaway Tackles (23) and Evaded Tackles (123) with a 44.4% Juke Rate. Not to mention Taylor made the most of his opportunities with his underrated receiving work. Taylor saw 53 targets out of the backfield and finished with 360 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and a 78.7% catch rate for the Indianapolis Colts. Taylor finished second in targets at running back for the Colts behind Nyhiem Hines who saw 57 targets.
While these are all great stats, going in with the expectation that Jonathan Taylor can recreate this kind of season again this year is a bit presumptuous especially when you consider some of the changes that the Colts have made as well as some other factors that have arisen during the 2022 offseason…
Incoming Regression?
I don’t really care for this term but is something that fantasy managers should be aware of for players that have outstanding years like this. Why? Because realistically, it’s not something that can be easily maintained. We actually got to see this with Patrick Mahomes a few seasons ago when he put the NFL on its head in 2018 with 5,087 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. Since that season, he’s come close to the yardage but not the touchdowns. And he’s still a great quarterback, don’t get me wrong. The point however is that replicating those kinds of big seasons isn’t the norm in fantasy.
As far as Jonathan Taylor is concerned, it would be increasingly difficult for him to do these kinds of numbers again. For starters, the Colts want to be a passing team. Since Andrew Luck retired in 2019, the Colts have gone from Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and now Matt Ryan. What do three of these four quarterbacks have in common? They like throwing the ball. During their tenures as the Colts quarterbacks, they’ve thrown the ball 500+ times and finished no lower than 16th in passing attempts.
The Colts want to get back to throwing the ball with a quarterback in Matt Ryan who has finished no lower than 11th in passing attempts over the last three seasons. The Colts were pretty balanced last season in terms of run/pass ratio, running the ball nearly 49% of the time as opposed to passing the ball at a 51.1% clip. With Carson Wentz now in Washington with the Commanders, expect that passing number to go up under Matt Ryan. This leads us to the next issue. Passing work out of the backfield.
As noted earlier, there wasn’t a big difference in targets between Jonathan Taylor and Nyhiem Hines last season. Just four targets separated the two backs in terms of work and both had nearly the same target share during the 2021 season with Taylor seeing a 10.2% share as opposed to Hines’ 11.4% share. Heading into this season there’s more and more buzz about Hines being even more involved in the offense for the 2022 season.
Lots of buzz today about Nyheim Hines syphoning off more work from Jonathan Taylor
FYI — HC Frank Reich said this back in May:
Hines = one of the most glaringly mispriced RBs in best ball drafts all offseason (RB45)
Taylor = fantasy’s RB2 behind CMC pic.twitter.com/pI7nbe9ViS— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 13, 2022
You can also weigh Frank Reich’s words in if you want but he did make it a point to suggest that if he were heading into a fantasy draft this season, he would take Hines. Whether that implication will turn true is another matter. Another thing to take from that excerpt is that Reich felt that they were too “run-centric” last season. Reich also stated that they have a quarterback in Matt Ryan that’s “not going force the ball” opting to spread it around to their players, and Hines was one of those players mentioned.
.@damienwoody is not letting head coach Frank Reich’s comments stop him from taking Jonathan Taylor at the top spot in his fantasy league đŸ˜…
“Frank [Reich] does not want me to be great right now!” pic.twitter.com/hC0u9SafWb
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 16, 2022
The Wrap Up
Jonathan Taylor is just one of a handful of running backs that you should be considering taking at the 1.01 this season for fantasy drafts. Taylor has showcased last season why he’s more than capable of being leaned on when it comes to the ground game. At the same time, we’ve seen head coach Frank Reich tamper with Jonathan Taylor’s workload before too. Two seasons ago, it was a committee with Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, and Jonathan Wilkins (remember that name?). Then just last season, I mentioned earlier in the article that Taylor’s carries didn’t take a jump until the second half of the season going from 15 to 23.4 carries a game.
While I firmly believe that Taylor is a bonafide top 5 running back, I’m looking for a running back that gets a ton of work unabated from coaches tampering with his workload or having another running back steal work from him. To me that running back is Derrick Henry. Prior to his injury, Henry led all running backs in fantasy points per game (21.9), rushing yards (937), and attempts (219) and was even on pace for over 2,000 rushing yards before going down to a foot injury. Mind you, Henry was leading all running backs in fantasy points in PPR formats as well.
Ultimately, the choice is yours to make. One thing is certain, two for sure… If you pass on Jonathan Taylor, you won’t get another shot at him. So you have to decide whether or not he’s worth the 1.01 or not.
