Late Round Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers

Justin Fields QB22, (148.3 overall ADP)

Finding a quarterback this late in your draft with the upside to carry you to a title is rare. For a quarterback to provide high fantasy upside, they either need to be highly efficient as a passer or be able to steal points with their legs. Though it’s yet to be determined just how successful Fields will be from strictly a passing perspective he certainly possesses the rushing upside to put up elite numbers every week. Fields has plenty of room to approve as a passer finishing the 2021 season as his 5.8 adjusted yards per pass attempt ranked 28th at the quarterback position, and his touchdown rate of 2.6% ranked just 29th. if you only paid attention to Fields first five career starts last year it’s easy to discount his prospects in 2022, but he was a rookie, and he did show a marked improvement over his final five weeks. In his first five starts Fields finished as the QB24 or worst, and head coach Matt Nagy looked to have no plan on how Field’slize Fields skill-set. In four of his final five starts, Fields was a much better quarterback, finishing as the QB10 on three occasions and the QB5 in another week. He saw increases in every meaningful counting stat during those contests. 

Justin Fields crushed it in the second half of his season. He started 10 games last year. He was bad, bad, bad, bad, bad, then very good. I excluded the game he was injured against Baltimore last year. Excluding that game, he was an absolute stud in four of his five final starts. pic.twitter.com/qgiEsGmor3

— I’m not waving… (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 22, 2022

Nothing much has changed for Fields entering the 2022 season. His offensive line is not particularly good, nor are his pass catchers. But between Darnell Mooney, Kole Kmet, David Montgomery, and his own rushing ability there’s no reason Fields can’t produce as he did to close out his season last year. If he continues to improve as a passer while maintaining the same rushing upside he could be a top ten player at his position this season. Quarterbacks with similar ADP include Jimmy Garoppolo, Carson Wentz, and Jameis Winston, but they lack the week-winning upside that Fields brings to the table, and there’s no reason to play it safe in this stage of your drafts. 

Rhamondre Stevenson RB36 (87.4 overall ADP)

One quick caveat to this selection. I purposely didn’t select any rookie running backs, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t load up on them in the later parts of your draft. Going after Stevenson are Kenneth Walker (RB39), James Cook (RB42), and Dameon Pierce (RB48) and each of those players is someone I want to add to everyone one of my redraft rosters, and you should do the same. But Stevenson, though he carries a higher ADP might be a less obvious choice than the rookies. Despite playing with touchdown hog Damien Harris last year Stevenson was still able to provide six top 24 scoring weeks last year, and two top-six scoring weeks in just 12 games played. In a limited sample size playing without Harris, in two games, Stevenson averaged 16.2 fantasy points a game which would have been good enough to finish as the RB11 in PPG over a full season and saw a meaty 11.1% target share. If Harris were to miss any starts then Stevenson is no doubt about it plug and play option. Even if Harris is healthy all season that wouldn’t preclude Stevenson from being a fantasy option either. Though his 15 rushing touchdowns may give the appearance that Harris was a bell-cow last year, his 48.6% opportunity share ranked just 33rd at the position, and though he did better Stevenson’s opportunity share (38.9%) that split is a lot closer than would have imagined entering the 2021 season with Harris as the starter and Stevenson not having any defined role. The New England backfield is one that could provide multiple fantasy assets in its current form or one that could coalesce around one back if an injury were to occur. 

Bill Belichick, to @BobSocci in Las Vegas, acknowledges that RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are “looking at all three downs” and the team “has to plan accordingly on that.”

This was a notable change from preseason game No. 2. No more designated “passing back”, per se.

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) August 23, 2022

Christian Kirk, WR40 (106.5 overall ADP)

I understand why there is some trepidation when drafting Kirk. He hasn’t exceeded a 20% target share in a season since 2019, and it cratered to just 16% in 2020. But he did have a fairly significant bounce back in 2021, with an 18% share, on his way to finishing as the WR30 with 12.2 fantasy points per game. He also set career highs in receptions (77), and receiving yards (982), while putting up his second most receiving touchdowns (5), and targets (103).  Kirk was able to parlay that into a 4 year $72 million deal to become the Jacksonville Jaguars WR1.  

Christian Kirk in his #Jaguars debut Saturday:

* In for 32 of Trevor Lawrence’s 39 snaps
* 16 slot snaps
* 8 targets for a 38% share
* 5-54-0 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 22, 2022

And in his first pre-season action with the Jaguars Kirk was the focal point of the offense. This bodes well for Kirk, as the Jaguars have completely revamped their roster from last season, and coaching staff, and have over 1,300 available air yards from last year. Being drafted after players like Allen Lazard, who’s never crested 9.8 fantasy points per game, and Robert Woods, who is in a decidedly run-first offense, Kirk provides excellent upside considering his WR4 cost. Even if he just matches last year’s WR30 finish, Kirk would easily outproduce his current ADP, and being the WR1 of the Jaguars’ hoped-to-be-reborn offense, the upside exists for even greater heights. 

David Njoku, TE18 (177.8 overall ADP)

With the DeShaun Watson penalty finally set at 11 games, you’re probably thinking that the Browns offense is a stay-away zone. For the most part, I would agree with that sentiment, as Jacoby Brissett hasn’t exactly lit the world afire during his two starting seasons with the Colts. There is one position that thrived under Brissett though. Tight end. 

Remember that time in 2017 when Jack Doyle finished as the TE5 PPG and his quarterback was Jacoby Brissett

— I’m not waving… (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 19, 2022

That’s right, Jack Doyle, who scored 7.0 fantasy points per game in six of his nine seasons in the NFL, averaged a career-high 11.3 points per game with Brissett under center in 2017. Njoku is a vastly superior athlete to Doyle, and during their respective careers has averaged 2.6 more yards per catch than Doyle did. Though Njoku is entering his sixth pro season and he’s still just 26 years old, which just so happens to be the age that a plurality of top 12 tight ends seasons occurs. The Browns showed their faith in Njoku this off-season signing him to a 4 year $54 million contract, making him the fifth highest paid tight end in the league. They also cut ties with last year’s starting tight end Austin Hooper. 

No matter who you select at the back end of your drafts, make sure you are drafting with a purpose. If you drafted “safe” in the early rounds, then the later rounds are a great time to look for some upside, you want to embrace the variance. Good luck to all of you in all of your drafts!