2022 Valspar Championship – DFS Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the Valspar Championship, and check out our PGA Lineup Optimizer to make more educated player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck to you for this week and every week!
The Valspar Championship
Preview for the Valspar Championship: It’s a bit hard to move on from the excitement of THE PLAYERS Championship last week, or should I say this week as the soggy event continued into Monday. We may see a few more withdraws than normal with those who intended to play this week but want a break after THE PLAYERS – Paul Casey, Sebastian Munoz, and Doug Ghim have already gone home. Originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic, this tournament began in 2000 but has been the Valspar Championship since 2014. The best score to date at this event came in 2004 when Vijay Singh shot a -18 to beat two other golfers by five strokes. Winners of the Valspar Championship over the last five editions include Sam Burns in 2021, no event was played in 2020 due to the pandemic, Paul Casey in 2019, Paul Casey in 2018, Adam Hadwin in 2017, and Charl Schwartzel in 2016.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is 7.8M, the winner collects $1.404M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is 7,340 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are again Bermudagrass and average a fairly small 5,800 square feet. The winning score here over the last ten editions ranges from -7 to -17, so scores can be a bit all over the place depending on the wind and weather. Some core key stats to focus on this week are, in order, strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: around the greens, driving accuracy, and strokes gained: putting.
The field: As of now, 19 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world are in the field including Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland, the defending champ, Sam Burns, and others. We have a near full field of 144 players, and the top 65 plus ties after round 2 on Friday will see weekend action for round 3 and round 4. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B.
Three questions I have about the Valspar Championship:
1. How will THE PLAYERS golfers do? We have a bunch of golfers from THE PLAYERS in action this week, and it makes me wonder how much energy they got left in the tank for this week’s event. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele, Koepka, and others who missed the cut have more appeal to me this week than the others who went all four rounds do.
2. Which golfers have gained the most strokes on approach recently? With strokes gained: approach being the most important key stat this week, it’s important to look at the top players in this category lately. Over the past 24 rounds, the top ten approach gainers are Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Russell Knox, Alex Noren, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, Austin Smotherman, Adam Svensson, Keegan Bradley, and Justin Thomas.
3. More wind and rain again this week? As of now, things look somewhat decent on the weather front in terms of wind speeds and precipitation from Thursday to Sunday. It could absolutely change, but we thankfully won’t see weather anything close to last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: The scrubs in this field aren’t too impressive, so I would advise going with a hybrid lineup mentality in GPPs and balanced configurations in cash games as per usual. You will also want to do stars and scrubs for the bigger contests, but try to keep as many players in the $7K range as possible and avoid dipping too much into the $6K players. View projected ownership numbers on Wednesday and pivot where it makes sense to, plus leave at least $300 on the table in the GPPs as most lineups use $49,700+ and the top winning lineups are consistently $49K and less.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – Hovland is an incredible player who has won three times in his last nine starts and has seven top 9’s during this torrid stretch. He’s one of the very best ball-strikers that planet Earth has to offer – case in point, he gained 14.17 strokes at THE PLAYERS last week, lost 5.78 strokes in his short game and still finished T9. He has only played this event once but landed a T3 a year ago and gained strokes across the board. He’s the top DFS play this week in my humble opinion and he should be in your core lineups – the only knock against him is that he will be highly owned. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T3.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – With seven top 8’s over his last eleven starts, Thomas has been playing very well and threatening to win for the first time since last year’s PLAYERS Championship. He’s a ball-striking machine, and when his putter shows signs of life, he consistently has a top 10 finish. He has three top 18’s here in four starts including last year’s T13 where he gained 11.07 strokes ball-striking and had he not lost 6.45 with his putter, he could have been right in contention – I expect him to be this year. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T13 and 2017 – Cut.
The $9K Range
Louis Oosthuizen (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – Oosthuizen is still trying to find his groove this year but has still gone T14-T30-T42 in three starts, and has been spectacular on this track with two straight top 8’s including a co-runner-up finish three years ago when he put on a short game clinic gaining 10.62 strokes. He also has four top 16’s at this venue since 2016, and I expect him to break out this week on a course that clearly fits his eye. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T8, 2019 – T2, and 2018 – T16.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – He has been on fire between the PGA Tour, European Tour, and the Asian Tour with six top 16’s in his last seven starts including four top 9’s in his last six starts. We can’t see all of his recent strokes gained data, but Hatton has gained over 15 strokes putting over his last two starts, so his flat stick is leading the way to high finishes plus his ball-striking has been fine too. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – The defending Valspar champ had a slow start to 2022, but he has been playing much better over his last two starts with a T9 at the Arnold Palmer Championship and a T26 last week which could have been a whole better if his round 3 and 4 looked like his first two as he was in contention to win THE PLAYERS after 36 holes. Burns has finished no worse than T30 in three starts at this tournament, and I see no reason why that won’t continue this week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Won, 2019 – T30, and 2018 – T12.
The $8K Range
Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – Noren has two top 6’s in his last four starts and has been really ball-striking his way to success which hasn’t been always so common for him throughout his career. He had a T21 a year ago in his first look at this event, and I expect him to top that result this week as he’s playing a lot better now versus then. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T21.
Keegan Bradley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – Had Bradley not made a bogey and a double in his last two holes last week and merely had pars, he would have finished T2, but still earned a solo 5th for his week-long efforts. He has three top 12’s over his last six starts and two of them are in back-to-back starts, plus he finished solo 2nd here last year, so the supreme ball-striker is a potential core play for this week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – 2nd, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T31, and 2017 – T58.
Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) – Knox played a very well-balanced golf game last week to earn a T6 at THE PLAYERS – gaining strokes across the board. He has four top 33s over his last five starts, and has finished no worse than T24 here since 2018. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T21, 2019 – T24, 2018 – T16, and 2017 – Cut.
The $7K Range
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – With five top 15’s over his last ten starts, McCarthy has done quite well for a player who leans heavily on his incredible flat stick. He had a top 10 here three years ago, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he repeats that performance this week. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T39 and 2019 – T9.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Kizzire has three top 32’s over his last four starts including a T10 at the Phoenix Open when he pretty much gained strokes across the board. He had a T22 at THE PLAYERS last week thanks to gaining 9.30 strokes with his short game and gained on approach which is typical for the big man. He hasn’t lit up this course just yet, but is a safe bet to make the cut and has top 30 upside. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T60, 2019 – T60, and 2017 – Cut.
Nick Taylor (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – I originally reserved this spot for Munoz, but since he has withdrawn, I have elected to insert a second golfer with a last name that’s Taylor. He has five top 33’s over his last six starts and has enjoyed a nice stretch of solid approach play. He missed the cut here a year ago, but had a top 25 finish three years ago via gaining strokes across the board. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2019 – T24, 2018 – Cut, and 2017 – T62.
The $6K Range
Pat Perez (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Perez has five top 42’s over his last six starts including a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T9 at Pebble Beach. He has made the cut in four straight appearances at this event – that should extend to five this week and he did have a T7 here nine years ago, so he has had an elite finish on this track. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T29.
Vaughn Taylor (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Taylor has been excellent at this tournament over its past two editions including finishing T6 last year. He has made four consecutive cut lines and finished T7 at the Puerto Rico Open just two weeks ago. Don’t expect another top 10 this week, but the upside and potential is there. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T6 and 2019 – T18.
Zach Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – It was challenging to find another player from the $6K range, but I settled on Johnson since he has a strong history at this event with three straight top 29’s and he has only missed the cut once in his last seven starts here. As long as his short game remains good, then he should make the cut again this week and could threaten another top 30 result. Valspar Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T29, 2019 – T24, and 2018 – T16.
