Fantasy Baseball
Over the past few days, news kept breaking about trades, free agent signings, injuries, and rumors. Seattle and Cincinnati made a big trade with Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez headlining the deal. The buzz about the Athletics moving Matt Olson came to fruition as they traded him to the Braves. The Mets acquired Chris Bassitt, as the Athletics and Reds look to retool and send away their core players.
Although Fernando Tatís Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. also headlined updated injury news, we’ll focus on the other portions of the trades involving Olson, Winker, and Suárez. It’s a fun exercise to examine several possible deep league names to monitor. For this article, we’ll focus on 2022 redraft relevant players, meaning players at Triple-A, Double-A, or ones that reached the majors in the past.
Quick Links
Cristian Pache (OF – OAK)
On Monday, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Athletics traded away Matt Olson to the Braves for Cristian Pache, Shea Langeliers, Ryan Cusick, and Joey Estes. At one point, Pache and Drew Waters drew buzz in the dynasty realm, but Pache’s 80-grade glove makes him a slightly better real-life than fantasy option. During Pache’s 72 MLB plate appearances, mostly in 2021, Pache totaled one home run, six runs, and four RBI with a .119 batting average. It’s hard to glean much from that sample, so let’s highlight the Triple-A and Double-A stats.
In 2019, Pache compiled 12 home runs, 63 runs, 61 RBI, and eight stolen bases with a .277 batting average across Double and Triple-A. Unfortunately, the eight stolen bases came in 19 attempts, so that’s not great. The below-average power and hit tool likely limit the batting and power at the majors moving forward. Granted, it’s a small sample, but that’s evident with a 10.5% LD%, 52.6% GB%, 41.4% O-Swing%, and 64.1% Contact%. Unfortunately, we don’t have minor league data in plate discipline. However, Pache boasted a healthy LD% in the minors of 21.5% at Double-A (2019) and 28.9% in Triple-A (2019), yet a 17.5% LD% at Triple-A in 2021.
Pache’s 2022 Outlook
So, what’s the angle with Pache? It involves potential playing time with the Athletics, given the opening in centerfield with Ramón Laureano suspended for 27 more games in 2022. Unfortunately, the lineup context isn’t exciting as Roster Resource projects Pache in the nine-hole with the weak OBP skills. Pache’s value likely comes by compiling plate appearances and counting stats with the glove keeping him in Oakland’s lineup. The BAT X projects Pache for five home runs and three stolen bases with a .240 batting average, though it might not reflect the current bump in playing time. Keep an eye on Pache’s playing time, batted ball data, and plate discipline as a waiver wire pickup in 15-team leagues.
Shea Langeliers (C – OAK)
The final player we’ll discuss in the Matt Olson trade involves catcher Shea Langeliers since he crushed 22 home runs in 2021 at Double-A. Although Joey Estes and Ryan Cusick warrant intrigued, they only reached Single-A in 2021. As the ninth overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft full of talent up top, Atlanta selected Langeliers as the second catcher outside Adley Rutschman. The top-10 in 2019 includes several players ready to splash in 2021, including Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, and Riley Greene.
Big boy power. Shea Langeliers hits HR #21 out to RCF. It’s a pretty impressive power display. In my decade of covering prospects in Chattanooga, few RHH get it out to RCF here. Most of the dudes who do it are MLB Regulars #Braves pic.twitter.com/SxAYzg4sew
— Chris Blessing (@C_Blessing) September 15, 2021
Prospects Live listed Langeliers as the Braves’ No. 1 overall prospect with plus grades as a fielder and a 70-grade arm to pair with average to above-average offensive tools. At Double-A in 2021, Langeliers smashed 22 home runs with 56 runs, 52 RBI, one stolen base, and a .258 batting average. Langeliers reached Triple-A for five games, but it’s hard to glean any takeaways.
There’s a chance Langeliers receives the call to the majors if Sean Murphy suffers an injury or struggles. However, Murphy possesses the power with an 11.3% barrel rate (75th-percentile) and 112.8 mph maximum exit velocity (87th-percentile). Like Pache, monitor Langeliers as a waiver wire pickup in 15-team leagues with two catcher spots.
Justin Dunn (P – CIN)
Throughout Justin Dunn’s major league career, he has a 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20.6% strikeout rate, and 15.5% walk rate in 102.2 innings. Dunn’s ERA seems reasonable, but the 5.2% K-BB% concerns us. As a flyball pitcher with a career FB% of 49.1%, Dunn’s career BABIP of .205 remained low, yet an 80.8% LOB%. Over time, the BABIP and LOB% could regress, but we’ll want to monitor the home run rate with a career HR/9 of 1.40 that spiked to 1.97 in 2020.
Dunn’s Arsenal
The Mariners value controlling the strike zone for pitchers and hitters, so Dunn doesn’t quite fit the mold. However, Dunn’s breaking pitches look intriguing with double-digit swinging-strike rates on the curve and slider. Dunn’s curveball boasts a career 11.4% swinging-strike rate, with the slider eliciting a career swinging-strike rate of 13.8%.
The same trends apply for Dunn, with the slider resulting in a career .260 SLG and .178 wOBA. Although the curveball didn’t perform as well, it still allowed a .395 SLG and .310 wOBA throughout his career.
The movement profile remains notable on the curve, with the above-average break in 2020 (5.1 vs. Avg) and 2021 (7.4 vs. Avg). That should help limit the contact quality with the chance to elicit swings and misses.
Interestingly, Dunn’s four-seamer peaked at 2.4 inches of vertical rise versus the average that increased from 0.8 in 2020. Add in the increased velocity, and Dunn’s four-seamer going from 91.2 mph (2020) to 93.7 mph (2021) warrant interest. Dunn’s slider and changeup velocity increased 1-2 mph too.
Dunn’s 2022 Outlook
With the Driveline staff with the Reds, we wanted a piece of the Reds’ arms in recent seasons. However, we should also trust the Mariners pitching development which makes us wonder how to value Justin Dunn in 2022. It’s hard to rely on projections for someone like Dunn since ATC projects a 4.61 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate across 90 innings. As we noted with Pache, the projections might not reflect the updated moves.
Dunn slots in behind Luis Castillo and Tyle Mahle in the backend of the Reds’ rotation, so the opportunity should be available. However, a flyball pitcher in the Reds’ home ballpark concerns us. According to EV Analytics, the Reds park ranks third in wOBA Park Factor (1.05) and second in Home Run Park Factor (1.21). Overall, Dunn’s stuff looks intriguing, especially from a movement and result standpoint on the curveball and slider.
Jake Fraley (OF – CIN)
Do you like OBP, then Jake Fraley possesses those skills. In Fraley’s career, he compiled nine home runs, 33 runs, 37 RBI, and 12 stolen bases with a .196 batting average. However, the career 14.3% walk rate and .320 OBP can sustain, with the 28.7% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Fraley battled quad, hamstring, and shoulder injuries leading to missed time throughout 2020 and 2021. Add in the lefty splits, and Fraley’s profile looks concerning with a .736 OPS against righties and .475 OPS against lefties throughout his career.
Fraley’s Batted Ball Data
Although Fraley’s splits make us cringe, the healthy 24.7% LD% in his career, plus the decent plate discipline, warrants our attention in deeper leagues. Fraley shows patience with a 22.6% O-Swing% and 41.4% Swing% below the league averages. Unfortunately, Fraley doesn’t smash in the hard-hit metrics, evidenced by the career 5.9% barrel rate and 112.2 mph maximum exit velocity.
Jake Fraley has a career LD% of 24.7%, plus a 14.3% BB% in 335 PA. The BA isn’t great at .196, but he compiled 9 HR & 12 SB in his career with a 6.6% Barrel%.
š¬Concerns: Platoon risk, injuries
šPositives: LD%, OBP, with the double-digit HR/SB potential#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/QMZbI6n0NF— Corbin (@corbin_young21) January 30, 2022
That said, Fraley seems like a strong side platoon outfielder for the Reds with Tyler Naquin, Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel, and Shogo Akiyama. The upside scenario involves Fraley hitting 20 home runs and stealing 20 bags, assuming health and playing time.
Brandon Williamson (P – CIN)
As noted with Justin Dunn, the Mariners player development keeps rising. The big 6-foot-6 lefty in Brandon Williamson reached Double-A in 2021 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 33% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate in 67.1 innings. Based on the FanGraphs grades, the stuff seems good with Williamson, although he may struggle with commanding the four pitches in the fastball, breaking pitches, and changeup.
If you have MILB TV, you can catch Brandon Williamson making his second Double-A start. So far he’s through four scoreless with four strikeouts and has worked around a little self-inflicted trouble (two HBPs). Gorgeous curveball and competes every pitch, really fun to watch. pic.twitter.com/2VpxO7p7Oj
— Lookout Landing (@LookoutLanding) July 2, 2021
With Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo headlining the Reds’ top prospects, Williamson likely slots towards their top prospects. The Prospects Live crew listed Williamson inside their top-100 2022 pre-season list towards the backend. Since the Reds traded away their top core players, it’s possible that Williamson debuts in the majors in 2022. On the flip side, the Reds may keep Williamson down as a look ahead to 2023. In redraft leagues, watch for Brandon Williamson if he receives the call.
