Golf Heads Home: 2024 Open Championship DFS Plays and Picks
All eyes have shifted to Scotland for the final Major of the season. In case you need the reminder, DraftKings lineups WILL LOCK at 1:35 AM EDT on Thursday because of the time difference! Now that PSA is done, let’s get down to business!
- Field: 158 Players
- Cut: Top 70 and ties
- First Tee: Thursday, July 18th
- Defending Open Championship Champion: Brian Harman
Royal Troon Golf Club, located in Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland, is one of the most prestigious and historic golf venues in the world. Established in 1878, this classic links course has a rich history, hosting The Open Championship multiple times since 1923. Known for its challenging layout, Royal Troon boasts two courses: the Old Course and the Portland Course. The Old Course, with a par of 71 and a yardage of approximately 7,385 yards, is the championship course that garners attention this week for the Open Championship.
Several unique attributes make Royal Troon a standout venue for The Open Championship. The iconic 8th hole, known as the “Postage Stamp,” is one of the shortest (can play as short as 100-yards) yet most difficult par-3 holes in major championship golf. The 11th hole, “The Railway,” is another notable challenge, featuring a long par-4 running alongside a railway line. The par-5 6th hole, “Turnberry”, was lengthened by 22 yards making it the longest hole in Open Championship history at 623 yards. The strategic bunkering, fast and firm fairways, thick rough, and unpredictable coastal winds further enhance the course’s difficulty, testing even the most skilled golfers. Additionally, the scenic beauty of the course, set along the Firth of Clyde, adds to its allure.
Scotland has been victim to a lot of rain over the past few weeks. This rain will likely alter the playing conditions at Royal Troon. Normally firm and fast fairways will be softer and slower, reducing the ball’s runout and impacting overall yardages. Players will need to adapt their strategies, often hitting longer clubs and avoiding risky shots. Mud and standing water can complicate shot execution, while softer greens become more receptive to approach shots, altering the course’s challenge. Despite the course management’s efforts with advanced drainage systems, heavy rain can underscore the adaptability required to navigate the course successfully. In order to navigate it successfully I found some skills that golfers will need and listed them below!
Driving Distance
At Royal Troon, driving accuracy is crucial due to narrow fairways, thick rough, strategic bunkering, and challenging weather conditions. Accurate drives help avoid hazards and set up better approach shots. However, driving distance is also important as it reduces the length of approach shots, offers birdie opportunities on par-5s, and helps navigate hazards. Long, accurate drives can mitigate the effects of coastal winds and provide a psychological edge over competitors. Thus, combining accuracy with distance is key to effectively managing the course and optimizing scoring potential.
Approach Game
A strong approach game at Royal Troon is vital due to the course’s small, well-guarded, and undulating greens, which require precise shots to avoid challenging bunkers and rough. This precision is especially crucial on shorter par-3s like the iconic “Postage Stamp,” where the tiny green and surrounding deep bunkers leave little room for error. Variable coastal winds further demand accurate control of ball trajectory and spin. Hitting greens in regulation enhances scoring opportunities, allowing players to capitalize on birdie chances. Additionally, a strong approach game aids in recovering from tough lies, minimizing damage when fairways are missed. Overall, mastering approach shots is key to navigating Royal Troon’s challenges and optimizing scoring potential.
Scrambling
Proficiency in scrambling is crucial at Royal Troon Golf Club due to the course’s challenging greenside bunkers, thick rough, and gorse bushes. Effective scrambling allows players to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation, a common occurrence given the unpredictable coastal winds. Navigating these difficult lies successfully can maintain momentum and confidence, especially under pressure. As a key complement to strong approach play and solid driving accuracy and distance, scrambling proficiency is essential for overcoming Royal Troon’s demanding conditions and optimizing overall performance.
I tried to figure out my strategy for picking plays last week at the Scottish Open. For the most part my strategy worked out well, unfortunately a bad round 2 for Benny An really messed things up. Anyways, take a look at some of my personal favorite plays below!
$10K and Up: $11.4K – Rory McIlroy
I was watching McIlroy closely last week because I wanted to assess his mental state after the US Open. I was not disappointed by his T4 finish at the Scottish Open, where he had the longest average drive, ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee (SG:OTT) and Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green (SG:ARG), and was T4 in Strokes Gained: Total (SG:Total). Last week, he also finished 13th in driving accuracy, hitting 63.4% of fairways over four rounds. The only concern is that he lost strokes putting, which could potentially hinder his chances of winning the Open. Despite that, he still ranks in the top 20 of this field in terms of SG: Total, Greens in Regulation (GIRs) gained, Scrambling, and SG: ARG. He ranks 23rd in good drives for the field, but at the US Open, he was hitting many low stinger drives, avoiding high, floating drives. On a links-style course that can vary greatly with the wind, those low stingers will be advantageous. I trust how he has been playing, and his game seems to fit this course well. I believe we are getting one of the best golfers in the world at a slight ownership discount this week, and I will gladly back McIlroy here.
$9K Range: $9.9K – Collin Morikawa
The $9K range is full of players that I really like this week. I can see myself trying some lineups that start with 2-3 $9K players. Morikawa would be a cornerstone for those lineups. Although his debut win in 2021 was followed by back-to-back missed cuts, which is concerning, a closer look at his stats from those missed cuts reveals a common issue: poor putting performances. In 2022, his driving accuracy was off, and last year, his approach game was poor. However, if we look at his game right now, we see that he has been extremely accurate off the tee and has gained strokes on approach in seven straight tournaments while also gaining strokes, putting in six of those seven. This is a stat profile that can win an Open Championship: an accurate driver who mitigates a lack of distance by being elite on approach. If he can continue the magic he has found with his putter, Morikawa is a real threat to win this Major. For those curious about his major results this season, he finished T3 at the Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, and T14 at the US Open.
$8K Range: $8.7K – Tony Finau
This range really only has two players, Finau and Lowry, that I really like, and I would be happy to play either. In the end, I am giving Finau the edge based on his recent form coming into the Open. Finau has finished within the top 20 in each of his last five tournaments, and he actually has a decent Open Championship history. Prior to last year’s missed cut, Finau’s worst finish was a T28. He has a great approach game that tends to translate well into windy conditions, and when he does miss the green, his ARG game and scrambling are some of the best in this field. If he can be accurate off the tee, his driving distance gives him a big advantage compared to the field. His putting in the past three tournaments has also been a positive, which, like Morikawa, has always been a big struggle. If he can continue to gain at least 0.5 strokes putting against the field, another top finish should be in line for Finau.
$7K Range: $7.2K – Sahith Theegala
I won’t lie, I think this $7K range is unappealing. It’s packed with golfers that are okay, but none of them are really in great form and none of them strike me as having significant winning upside this week. There is one exception, and that is Theegala at $7.2K. Coming off a T4 at the Scottish Open, I saw a lot of things I liked from him. He drove the ball very well and gained 1.27 strokes putting. He did lose strokes on approach, but that isn’t something I would expect to happen consistently, as he is typically strong in that area. He ranks in the top 25 of this field in GIRs gained, SG:P, and Approach from 125-150 yards. His Open history is mixed, with only two appearances resulting in a missed cut and a T34. This seems like a course that could really fit his game, as he ranks 15th in course fit. He was $1K more at the PGA Championship and was actually in contention before a poor Sunday. I would argue this course could fit his game better than Valhalla. At only $7.2K, a top-20 finish would make Sahith a great play this week.
$6K Range: $6.8K – Louis Oosthuizen
Louis loves the Open Championship, and at this stage in his career, it’s the Major he is most likely to win. He has a win, T2, T3, and three other top-30 finishes at Open Championships. I feel like many average golf DFS players and fans won’t realize how well he has been playing on LIV. He has seven top-20 finishes in 10 LIV events this season, combined with two European Tour wins in December and a T2 on the Asian Tour in February. Louis has been playing really solid golf this year, and this will be his only Major appearance after turning down a PGA Championship invite back in May. Oosthuizen has a great approach game and can catch fire with his putter, two skills that are important at Royal Troon. What he lacks in driving distance should be countered by his ability to be extremely accurate off the tee. At only $6.8K this week, I like Oosthuizen more than a large chunk of the $7K range.
$5K Range: $5.4K – Matteo Manassero
Another week, another $5K range that I don’t like all that much. Mac Hughes, Ben Griffin, and Brendon Todd are all players you could consider. However, if you want a player with boom potential the will come at an ownership discount, look no further than the Italian at $5.4K. He has played in the Open six times, with two top-20 finishes and four missed cuts. Since winning on the European Tour in March, he has been playing some really good golf, including five top-25 finishes on the European Tour and a T15 finish last week at the Scottish Open. At only $5.4K, he comes with plenty of risk, including a putter that can hemorrhage strokes. Either way, I will take plenty of risks on Manassero for his upside and the salary relief he offers.
