2024 NFL Strength of Schedule

There are a variety of angles from which to speculate and project strength of schedule, the most common being the combined winning percentage of a team’s opponents the previous season. This is a simple and widely used method when attempting to forecast the difficulty of future opponents. But you can find that anywhere.

I decided to look a little deeper for this article. The previous season’s opponents’ combined winning percentage is part of the equation, but that looks at a historical result. I also wanted to factor in future predictions. I created a strength of schedule scoring system based on the following information:

SOS Scoring System

Historical Information:

  1. 2024 Opponents’ Combined 2023 Win Percentage
  2. 2024 Opponents’ Point Differential (2023 points scored minus points against)

Future Predictions:

  1. 2024 Opponents’ Projected 2024 Win Percentage (based on Vegas odds for team win totals)
  2. 2024 Opponents’ Pre-Season Power Rankings

I applied a weighting system with 2024 projected opponent winning percentage receiving the most weight and point differential (2023) receiving the least. The Power Rankings represent an average of 10 sets of rankings from around the industry. A lower SOS score indicates a more difficult schedule.

I will start with the Browns at the most difficult season-long SOS score and go through each team, from hardest to easiest SOS, presenting the following information (bulleted list below). For the non-divisional and 1st and 2nd half of season SOS scores, each team’s rank will be in parentheses (1st = hardest; 32nd = easiest)

  • SOS Score (season-long)
  • SOS Score (non-Divisional)
  • SOS Score (1st half, Weeks 1-9)
  • SOS Score (2nd half, Weeks 10-18)
  • 2023 Record
  • 2023 Point Differential
  • 2024 Projected Wins
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected 2024 Win%

A little foreshadowing, you should notice right away which division has the toughest schedule in 2024. Three of the four most difficult strengths of schedule belong to the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens. The AFC North teams have to play each other, a division with the highest projected 2024 win percentage at 55.9%. The AFC North is also coming off a 2023 season in which it had a divisional win percentage above 60% (63.2%), which was aided by a league-high 13 wins by the Ravens, But, it was also the only division in which all four teams had winning records. Since 2010, there have only been two other divisions to attain a combined win percentage above 60%: the 2022 NFC East (63.2%) and the 2013 NFC West (65.6%).

Here are the projected 2024 divisional win percentages:

Three of the four easiest strengths of schedule belong to NFC South teams (Panthers, Saints, and Falcons), which is not surprising as these teams also play each other twice a year and the NFC South has the lowest 2024 projected win percentage (44.1%). The NFC South is also coming off of a historically bad year with a 2023 win percentage below 40% (39.7%), largely due to the Panthers’ two-win debacle.

At the conclusion of the article is the full 2024 NFL schedule, with each team’s opponents color-coded based on the individual opponent’s strength (based on the same criteria described above). The schedule also includes the season-long SOS scores for each team.

2024 Strength of Schedule

1 – Cleveland Browns

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 5.85
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 9.30 (19th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 8.31 (14th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 3.12 (3rd)
  • 2023 Record: 11-6
  • 2023 Point Differential: +34
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Avg. Pre-Season Power Rank: 13.4
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 53.6%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 52.1%

2 – Pittsburgh Steelers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 5.94
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 10.11 (21st)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 12.51 (27th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 0.09 (1st)
  • 2023 Record: 10-7
  • 2023 Point Differential: -20
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Avg. Pre-Season Power Rank: 15.6
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 54.0%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 52.8%

3 – New England Patriots

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 6.30
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 9.33 (20th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.27 (8th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score 6.30 (10th)
  • 2023 Record: 4-13
  • 2023 Point Differential: -130
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 4.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 30.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 52.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 52.8%

4 – Baltimore Ravens

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 6.45
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 2.85 (2nd)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.84 (11th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 6.03 (8th)
  • 2023 Record: 13-4
  • 2023 Point Differential: +203
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Avg. Pre-Season Power Rank: 3.8
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 54.3%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.4%

5 – Houston Texans

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 6.45
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 2.70 (1st)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 9.51 (19th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 3.00 (2nd)
  • 2023 Record: 10-7
  • 2023 Point Differential: +24
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
  • 2024 Avg. Pre-Season Power Rank: 7.5
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 47.4%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.7%

6 – Buffalo Bills

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.08
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 4.02 (3rd)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.51 (9th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 7.74 (15th)
  • 2023 Record: 11-6
  • 2023 Point Differential: +140
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 7.5
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 47.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.0%

7 – Minnesota Vikings

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.08
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 10.14 (22nd)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 4.41 (3rd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 9.48 (22nd)
  • 2023 Record: 6-11
  • 2023 Point Differential: -18
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 6.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 21.8
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 50.9%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 52.1%

8 – Tennessee Titans

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.23
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 8.13 (14th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.09 (6th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.28 (17th)
  • 2023 Record: 6-11
  • 2023 Point Differential: -62
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 6.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 26.5
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 52.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.4%

9 – Detroit Lions

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.65
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 6.99 (9th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 10.65 (21st)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 4.98 (5th)
  • 2023 Record: 12-5
  • 2023 Point Differential: +66
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 3.7
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.0%

10 – Las Vegas Raiders

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.68
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 6.36 (7th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.87 (12th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.61 (21st)
  • 2023 Record: 8-9
  • 2023 Point Differential: +1
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 6.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 25.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.8%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.3%

11 – Green Bay Packers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 7.77
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 8.28 (15th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 9.30 (17th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 6.06 (9th)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: +33
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 8.6
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 47.4%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.4%

12 – San Francisco 49ers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.10
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 5.22 (6th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 11.46 (23rd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 5.10 (6th)
  • 2023 Record: 12-5
  • 2023 Point Differential: +193
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 11.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 1.9
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 50.9%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.7%

13 – Jacksonville Jaguars

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.25
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 6.99 (9th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 5.61 (4th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 11.19 (23rd)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: +6
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 16.4
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 53.3%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.0%

14 – Dallas Cowboys

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.31
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 4.83 (5th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 2.70 (1st)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 13.32 (29th)
  • 2023 Record: 12-5
  • 2023 Point Differential: +194
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 11.6
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 44.6%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.4%

15 – Los Angeles Rams

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.34
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 7.77 (12th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 8.34 (15th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.34 (18th)
  • 2023 Record: 10-7
  • 2023 Point Differential: +27
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 12.3
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 52.9%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 51.0%

16 – Denver Broncos

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.40
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 8.55 (16th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 11.58 (24th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 4.80 (4th)
  • 2023 Record: 8-9
  • 2023 Point Differential: -56
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 5.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 28.1
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.8%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.0

17 – Seattle Seahawks

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.52
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 10.14 (22nd)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 8.94 (16th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.07 (16th)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: -38
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 7.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 21.3
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 51.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.7%

18 – Arizona Cardinals

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.70
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 11.73 (28th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 4.23 (2nd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 13.71 (30th)
  • 2023 Record: 4-13
  • 2023 Point Differential: -125
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 7.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 27.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 56.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.3%

19 – Washington Commanders

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 8.85
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 11.22 (26th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 11.82 (25th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 5.52 (7th)
  • 2023 Record: 4-13
  • 2023 Point Differential: -189
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 6.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 28.7
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 51.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.3%

20 – Miami Dolphins

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 9.21
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 7.95 (13th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 12.36 (26th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 6.42 (12th)
  • 2023 Record: 11-6
  • 2023 Point Differential: +105
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 12.6
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 45.0%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 49.0%

21 – New York Giants

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 9.24
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 10.83 (24th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 10.05 (22nd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.34 (19th)
  • 2023 Record: 6-11
  • 2023 Point Differential: -141
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 6.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 27.8
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 51.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 50.7%

22 – Indianapolis Colts

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 9.30
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 9.27 (18th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.21 (7th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 12.81 (28th)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: -19
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 19.7
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 49.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 48.3%

23 – Kansas City Chiefs

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 9.33
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 4.20 (4th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 5.91 (5th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 12.39 (26th)
  • 2023 Record: 11-6
  • 2023 Point Differential: +77
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 11.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 1.2
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 48.6%

24 – Philadelphia Eagles

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 9.72
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 7.20 (11th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 7.86 (13th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 11.37 (24th)
  • 2023 Record: 11-6
  • 2023 Point Differential: +5
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 6.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 49.0%

25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 10.14
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 6.36 (8th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 6.60 (10th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 14.13 (31st)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: +23
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 7.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 18.5
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 48.1%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 49.7%

26 – Cincinnati Bengals

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 10.20
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 15.24 (32nd)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 12.87 (29th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 7.23 (14th)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: -18
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 10.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 6.9
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 57.4%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 47.6%

27 – New York Jets

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 10.20
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 11.07 (25th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 13.56 (31st)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 6.39 (11th)
  • 2023 Record: 7-10
  • 2023 Point Differential: -87
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 15.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 50.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 47.9%

28 – Chicago Bears

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 10.74
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 14.76 (31st)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 15.09 (32nd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 6.84 (13th)
  • 2023 Record: 7-10
  • 2023 Point Differential: -19
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 16.7
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 46.4%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 48.3%

29 – Carolina Panthers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 11.10
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 11.28 (27th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 13.47 (30th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 8.43 (20th)
  • 2023 Record: 2-15
  • 2023 Point Differential: -180
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 5.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 32.0
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 52.2%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 49.0%

30 – New Orleans Saints

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 11.76
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 9.00 (17th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 11.07 (22nd)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 12.54 (27th)
  • 2023 Record: 9-8
  • 2023 Point Differential: +75
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 7.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 23.3
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 43.3%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 47.6%

31 – Los Angeles Chargers

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 12.03
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 12.36 (30th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 12.66 (28th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 11.46 (25th)
  • 2023 Record: 5-12
  • 2023 Point Differential: -52
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 8.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 19.3
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 52.9%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 46.2%

32 – Atlanta Falcons

  • SOS Season-Long Score: 14.04
  • SOS Non-Divisional Score: 11.88 (29th)
  • SOS 1st Half Score: 9.45 (18th)
  • SOS 2nd Half Score: 19.20 (32nd)
  • 2023 Record: 7-10
  • 2023 Point Differential: -52
  • 2024 Projected Wins: 9.5
  • 2024 Pre-Season Power Rank: 18.3
  • 2024 Opponents’ 2023 Win%: 42.9%
  • 2024 Opponents’ Projected Win%: 45.2%

Here is the same SOS data for each team in chart form. This first chart shows the SOS scores (season-long, non-Divisional, 1st half of season, and 2nd half of season. The chart is sorted in the same manner as the list above, from hardest (Browns) to easiest (Falcons) season-long SOS.

The Tale of Two Seasons

The Steelers have one of the more interesting and unique schedules of 2024. Pittsburgh is only a few hundredths of a point behind the Browns for the most difficult schedule, but a further breakdown of their matchups shows two distinctly different stretches of difficulty. As mentioned earlier, part of the reason the AFC North teams have difficult schedules is that they play each other. However, the Steelers’ schedule outside of their divisional matchups ranks 21st (12th– easiest). The discrepancy between their SOS during the first half of the season (ranked 27th) compared to the second half (most difficult) is by far the largest of 2024. The Steelers’ 2nd half SOS score by my scoring system is about as low as it can be at 0.09. The next-lowest SOS score is 2.70 (Cowboys’ 1st half SOS score). So, what is going on with the Steelers’ schedule? I had to triple-check this, but they do not play their first divisional game until Week 11. Week 11. A home game against the Ravens. Six of their final nine games are against their division foes.

Even more surprising, Pittsburgh is not the only team waiting until Week 11 for their first divisional matchup. The Bears’ first in-division game is Week 11 at home versus the Packers.

The previously-mentioned Cowboys are another “tale of two seasons” team but in the opposite direction. The Cowboys’ season-long SOS is a middle-of-the-pack 14th-hardest schedule. Their schedule is buoyed by a 2nd half of the season SOS ranking as the fourth-easiest in the league. Their non-divisional SOS ranks as the fifth-hardest and their first half of season SOS is the most difficult. Using my scoring system, the Steelers have a difference between first and second-half SOS of -12.42. The Cowboys’ is +10.62. The only other teams with even close to a double-digit difference are the Falcons at a +9.75 SOS score during the second half of the season, and the Cardinals at a +9.48 SOS score during the second half of the season.

Outside of that, the only other teams with a 1st half-2nd half SOS difference greater than 7.00 are the Bengals (easier 1st half of season), Buccaneers (easier 2nd half of season), and Bears (easier 1st half of season).

The Ravens take home the prize for most difficult non-Divisional SOS, with road games in Kansas City, Dallas, and Houston, and home games versus Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Texans have the second-hardest stretch outside of the AFC South, with road games in Green Bay, Dallas, and Kansas City, and home games versus Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Baltimore.

The easiest non-divisional schedule belongs to the Jets, with their only matchups with projected elite opponents being Week 1 at San Francisco and a home game versus Houston.

The following shows the same win percentage and power ranking data from the team-by-team list above but in chart form for better visualization and ability to compare. The chart is sorted from most to least 2024 projected wins.

What stands out to me with this data are the deltas. The difference between 2023 projected wins and actual 2023 wins, and between actual 2023 wins versus projected 2024 wins. Looking at the former comparison, 17 teams hit the “under” on the Vegas odds projected win totals. Not surprisingly, this group of 17 teams is chock-full of non-playoff teams. The Panthers topped this list finishing with 5.5 fewer wins than their 2023 projection, followed closely by the Chargers and their trainwreck season, finishing 4.5 wins shy of their projection. Looking at 2023 versus the 2024 projections, the teams that top this list are the same. It is normal to see the low-win teams from a previous season at the top of this list. When setting odds such as win totals, where the betting process involves wagering whether the actual number will be over or under the mark, oddsmakers avoid the extremes. The higher they set the number, the probability of the “under” being hit increases. As it was last year, the lowest projected win total for 2024 is 4.5 and the highest is 11.5, so inevitably, each new season, the teams that struggled have the most room for an increase in wins, and the teams that smashed are typically projected for a win decrease. One of the teams with the largest projected decrease in wins is the Ravens. But, this is not indicating that Baltimore will be a worse team in 2024. On the contrary. The projected wins still show the Ravens having the second-most wins in the NFL. And the Panthers being projected to make the biggest jump in wins (+3.5) should not imply that Carolina will suddenly become a contender. The oddsmakers just don’t want to lose a bunch of money by setting the “over/under” win totals too high or too low.

And the same can be said for setting really low numbers. That is the reason you also see these discrepancies with some of the worst teams from 2023. The Cardinals and Commanders each finished with four wins, and the Panthers only managed two victories. The only probable direction these teams can go in 2024 is up. So, while these three teams look like they are making a major jump based on this positive increase, they are still projected to finish at least one game under 0.500. The Panthers’ projected win total of 4.5 is a relatively low number, indicating just how bad pretty much everyone thinks they will be.

The interesting teams here are the Jets, Falcons, and Bengals, as these are the three non-playoff teams from 2023 whose projected win totals for 2024 would put them right in the thick of the playoff race in a typical season. A deep dive is not necessary to explain why these teams struggled in 2023 but are projected to contend in 2024. Aaron Rodgers is due back from injury for the Jets. The Falcons finally have a competent QB to distribute the ball to their plethora of first-round skill position players, they have a brand-new coaching regime, and they play in the easiest division in the NFL. The Bengals can be explained in two words. Joe. Burrow.

As promised, I’ll leave you with the entire 2024 NFL schedule (sorted in alphabetical order), with each team’s opponents color-coded based on the SOS score. This allows you to better visualize a team’s projected SOS across each week of the season. The season-long SOS scores are also included for each team.

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions about the data presented in this article or about fantasy football in general, feel free to hit me up on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

Scott Rinear
My name is Scott Rinear and I live in Seattle, Washington with my wife, two daughters and golden retriever (Jasper). Our biggest passion as a family is camping. We camp at least 10 times a year. My biggest passion personally is fantasy football. I have been playing fantasy football since 2006 and started producing content in 2020. I am a lifelong Seahawks and Mariners fan and will continue my fandom for the SuperSonics once they return to Seattle. I love everything about football, especially analytics and data analysis, and I’m a sucker for a good spreadsheet. I am a proud member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA).
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