It’s Open Season: 2024 US Open Best Bets Version!
When betting on the US Open, it’s important to consider several key factors:
Course Characteristics:
Each golf course has unique features that can favor certain playing styles. Understanding the course layout, hazards, and weather conditions is crucial. For this week we are expecting dry conditions, meaning a very firm and fast course. This makes it even more imperative to be accurate off the tee as a solid drive can easily roll out of the fairway if it has too much curve.
Player Form and History:
Analyze recent performances and how players have historically fared on similar courses. Current form and past success on similar terrains can be strong indicators. History in Major championships is another key factor to keep in mind as majors tend to play different than a normal PGA Tour event. The PGA Championship was abnormally easy (the easiest it has ever been actually) and the Masters was affected by strong winds. So to say the least, we haven’t gotten a typical Major yet this year. Lucky for us, the USGA will make this course as hard as they can because they like difficult conditions and winning scores close to even par.
Key Statistics:
Focus on relevant stats like driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and putting performance, which can be critical for success on specific courses. I feel as though the following bets align closely with what was mentioned in my DFS article. If you have any questions about the course or key stats that led me to these bets, feel free to follow the link to that article.
With all that being said, let’s dive into my three favorite bets for the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst No. 2!
(All bets 1U unless otherwise noted)
Xander + Morikawa Top 20, (+150, DK)
I covered both of these players and why I like them this week in my previous article. Xander has NEVER finished outside the top 20 at a US Open meanwhile Morikawa is coming in on a heater. At plus money odds I’m getting two guys I think have legit winning upside to finish top 20. Both are very accurate off the tee and do well in bogey avoidance. While Morikawa has a history of a more polished approach game and Xander is better on the greens. I will normally try not to overlap my bets with my DFS plays to avoid being burnt on both sides, but I couldn’t resist this bet.
Tournament Matchup: Straka OVER Burns (+100, DK)
Both players come in decent form, but Straka seems to be in even better shape. Straka comes in with back-to-back 5th-place finishes, including a strong round 4 last week at Muirfield. Burns comes in with back to back top 15 finishes, but each without commanding finishes. Both missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but you’d have to go back to this time last year to find a made cut at a major for Burns. Whereas Straka has two top-20 finishes in the 2 majors before the PGA Championship. In the end, I’ll take the form of Straka along with his elite accuracy off the tee to push past Burns in the final scorecard.
To Make The Cut Parlay, +320 (DK): Hideki, Hatton, Henley, Keegan Bradley
4 players, 4 made cuts. Thats all we need from this group. They can have the worst weekends, it won’t matter because the bet has already cashed. Hideki hasn’t missed a cut at a major since 2019, Hatton last missed a major cut in 2021. Both have solid track records throughout the first two rounds. I added Henley and Bradley here due to recent play. Both have been extremely accurate off the tee in their past 4 events with above average approach and ARG play. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t need these players to win, or even finish well. We just need them to make the cut, a task I feel all four of these golfers are up to.
