Pinehurst No. 2: The Start of a Beautiful Friend-chip
- Field: 156 Players
- Cut: Top 60 and ties
- First Tee: Thursday, June 13th
- Defending Champion: Wyndham Clark
Course Breakdown
Playing host to its fourth U.S. Open since 2000, Pinehurst No. 2 is renowned for its challenging Par 70 layout that seldom allows many players to finish under par. Historically, winners at this course have posted scores of even par, -1, and -9, with Martin Kaymer’s exceptional -9 standing out as he finished a full eight strokes ahead of second place.
A storied venue with a rich history dating back to 1907, Pinehurst No. 2 was designed by the legendary Donald Ross. It is celebrated for its turtleback greens, which are subtly contoured to repel shots that are not perfectly struck. A renovation prior to the 2014 U.S. Open, led by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, reintroduced many of Ross’s original design elements, including the distinctive sandy waste areas adorned with wire grass, which have become a hallmark of the course. These waste areas, which blend seamlessly into the natural landscape, can create difficult lies and present significant challenges, often proving more troublesome than traditional thick rough due to their proximity to the fairways.
The course’s greens, notorious for their undulating and crowned surfaces, now feature expanded runoff areas that make it even harder to hold approach shots. This characteristic places a premium on precise iron play and scrambling ability. The fairways, while relatively wide, demand strategic shot placement to avoid penalizing waste areas and to provide the best angles into the greens.
With its emphasis on accuracy over sheer power, Pinehurst No. 2 neutralizes the advantage typically held by longer hitters, bringing shorter, more precise drivers into contention. The course’s strategic demands reward players who can think their way around the layout, navigate its unique challenges, and execute with precision.
Pinehurst No. 2’s reputation as a stern test of golf is well-deserved, making it a fitting stage for the U.S. Open, where the world’s best golfers must display exceptional skill, strategy, and composure to emerge victorious.
Key Stats
Accuracy Off the Tee
As mentioned above, accuracy off the tee is key at this course. While most courses have typical rough surrounding fairways, Pinehurst has the native areas that are a complete toss up. Over 50% of shots coming from the native areas with wire grass are likely to have bad lies, making second shots extremely difficult. This is why looking for players with exceptional accuracy is likely to be more important than players that can bomb it but are likely to spray it around.
Bogey Avoidance
Over the past 15 years, the winning score has eclipsed -11 or better only three times, with Wyndham winning at -10 last year. This suggests that the USGA, which organizes the tournament, typically wants the course to play hard. They prefer single-digit winners and will do whatever they can to make the course challenging enough to achieve those results. That’s why I want golfers who are smart on the course and good at avoiding bogeys. I don’t expect this US Open to turn into a birdie fest, so golfers who can avoid high scores will likely be at the top of the leaderboard.
Around the Green Play
As mentioned in the course preview, the crowned (or turtleback) greens can make it difficult to hold the green on approach. Players with exceptional around-the-green (ARG) play can limit damage when they inevitably have an approach shot run off the green. Creative players and those comfortable with the Texas Wedge should have an advantage once they get to the green. I feel that ARG play and bogey avoidance tend to go hand-in-hand, so these are skills I’m strongly considering this week.
I’ll stop wasting your time now and jump into my favorite plays at each price range!
10K and Up: $11.5K – Xander Schauffele
I’m going back to good ole faithful Xander. Sitting $600 cheaper than McIlroy, Xander has double the number of top-10s this season than Rory. He has played in 7 US Opens and has yet to finish worse than T25 on the week. By the standards he’s set for himself, he played terribly last week but still finished top-10. Yes, I’ll be playing more than my fair share of Scottie this week, but at this point Schauffele should be higher priced than McIlroy. There is a lot of risk here with Xander, but he ranks top 5 in my model and offers $1500 of salary relief. I’m a little hesitant on Rory at $12.1K and out on Rahm at $10.9K. If Xander can avoid playing poorly ARG, he will possess all the tools to win his second major in as many tournaments as possible.
$9K Range: $9.4K – Collin Morikawa
Morikawa is a 2x Major winner and has finished top 5 in each of the first two Majors this year (T3-T4). He has been a positive in 5 of his last 6, turning a weakness into a positive. His approach game has started to return to the elite level we have seen the past few years. In this field, he is one of the most accurate off-the-tees and is in the top-20 in bogey avoidance. The only reason he doesn’t rank out higher is due to his history of poor putting. If Morikawa continues the strong play we have seen since the Masters, this will be a steal. Given his recent performance, Morikawa should be higher priced than an injured Aberg and shaky Hovland. I expect to start a few balanced lineups with Morikawa given how many players I like in the $8K range.
$8K Range: $8.7K – Cameron Smith
I like a lot of guys in the range, but the potential for a Cam Smith flash week is too much to pass up. He ranks poorly in course fit and model due to his poor driving and that scares me. When Smith is wild off the tee it can go bad fast but if he can be an average driver of the golf ball he can contend with the best. Why am I willing to overlook the driving? He has spike weeks driving, but his short game and putting is second to none. Ranking top-10 in putting and bogey avoidance while also ranking top-15 in SG: ARG and SG: Tot. If you aren’t willing to take chances on players have a strong weekend showing, then you’ll never win big. I’ll gladly take my chances with Cam Smith this week.
$7K Range:$7.8K – Tyrrell Hatton
For as many guys in the $8K range I like, there’s an equal amount of dislikes in the $7K range. When looking through this range, Hatton stuck out as an interesting pick. Admittedly, choosing him at the PGA Championship backfired when the tournament became a birdie fest. I don’t expect that to be the case this week, and low-scoring events that require grinding suit, Hatton. Ranking 11th in course fit, Hatton also ranks in the top-20 in putting, Bogey avoidance, scrambling, and SG:OTT. Yes, his emotions could get the best of him, but we have seen him do slightly better controlling his emotions. Given the lack of golfers I see as viable in this range Hatton likely gives you one of the highest ceilings amongst them.
$6K Range: $6.7K – Denny McCarthy
I normally don’t play McCarthy in big-field majors because they typically are at longer courses. While Pinehurst is not short, the native areas mentioned above make even long players consider taking less than driver off the tee. This makes Denny an intriguing option in the $6K range. Ranking in the top-10 of this field in putting, Scrambling, ARG play and bogey avoidance means Denny will be in my lineups for the first time in a while. I don’t need him to win, but grinding his way to a top 30 would be a major benefit.
$5K Range: $5.8K – Mac Meissner
With the value available in the $6K range I like, I don’t expect to have much exposure to this range at all. If I have any exposure it’s due to potential skill. With 3 top-15 finishes on the PGA tour this year, Meissner is a balanced player who ranks in the top half of the field in all major stats except SG: TOT, Proximity 200+, and SG: APP. As an option for salary relief, Meissner offers a strong top-40 upside with a possible top-25 upside.
