25 Statistical Observations From NFL Sunday

By Eric Moody | October 28, 2019

The following are 25 statistical observations from Sunday’s slate of NFL games. It’s hard to stay up to date on everything that’s happening, so hopefully, I can bring you up to speed on some of the fantasy football action you missed. 

Houston Texans 27, Oakland Raiders 24

Deshaun Watson three touchdown passes led the Texans (5-3) to a hard-fought win over the Raiders (3-4). He completed 27 of 39 passes for 279 yards and remains a matchup-proof QB1. DeAndre Hopkins caught 11 of 13 targets for 109 yards. His lack of receiving touchdowns is frustrating, but Hopkins remains a WR1. Darren Fells caught all six of his targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns. He can be viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE1 in the Texans offense. Kenny Stills caught three of five targets for 22 yards while playing third fiddle behind Hopkins and Fells. He is a boom or bust WR3. Keke Coutee found himself on the bench in favor of DeAndre Carter. This unexpected move left fantasy players in deeper formats triggered. Carlos Hyde rushed 19 times for 83 yards. He can continue to be viewed as a touchdown-dependent RB3. 

Derek Carr completed 18 of 30 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns in the Raiders loss to the Texans. He benefitted from the return of Tyrell Williams who caught three of six targets for 91 receiving yards and a touchdown. Carr can be viewed as a high-end QB2 moving forward while Williams is an upside WR3. Waller led the Raiders with eight targets. He only caught two of them for 11 yards and one touchdown. Waller’s still an elite TE1. It was disappointing that he couldn’t take advantage of the Texans secondary. Josh Jacobs rushed for 66 yards on 15 rushing attempts. He also had two receptions for 15 yards. Jacobs is unfortunately still being underutilized as a receiver out of the backfield. The good news is that he didn’t appear to have any setbacks with his shoulder injury. Jacobs can be viewed as a high-end RB2 against the Lions in Week 9. 

Statistical Observations

  • This was Jackson’s fifth game this season with three touchdown passes. 
  • Hopkins has accumulated a team-high 34 percent target share and 44 percent air yards over the last two games with Will Fuller. 
  • Hopkins is the third-youngest player to reach 8,000 career receiving yards in NFL history according to NFL Research. Only Randy Moss and Larry Fitzgerald were younger. 

New England Patriots 27, Cleveland Browns 13

Patriots (8-0) remain undefeated with a win over the Browns (2-5) as head coach Bill Belichick reaches 300 wins. Tom Brady completed 20 of 36 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Julian Edelman caught eight of 11 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets. He currently ranks sixth in targets and fourth in receptions. Edelman can be viewed as a WR1 in PPR formats averaging 17.3 points per game. Mohamed Sanu caught two of his five targets for 23 yards in his first game as a member of the Patriots. He played on 53 percent of the Patriots offensive snaps lining up in the slot on 57.6 percent of his routes. Dorsett caught three of six targets for 43 yards. He only has 33 targets this season and has been quiet since his 95 receiving yard game back Week 1. James White finished with four yards on two rushing attempts. He caught four of five targets for 75 yards. White is more of a low-end RB2 in PPR formats. Sony Michel finished with 74 yards on 21 rushing attempts. He can continue to be viewed as a touchdown-dependent RB2. The Patriots will be tested by the Ravens in Week 9. 

Baker Mayfield completed 20 of 31 passes for 194 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also rushed for 18 yards while being sacked five times. The Browns continue to struggle offensively coming out of the bye week. Jarvis Landry led the Browns in targets catching five of them for 65 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown in seven games. Odell Beckham battled all-pro cornerback Stephon Gillmore catching five of seven targets for 52 yards. Nick Chubb was the only bright spot in the Browns offense yesterday afternoon from a fantasy perspective. He rushed for 131 yards on 20 attempts with a seven-yard reception. Chubb was uncharacteristically responsible for two fumbles. He’ll have a plus matchup against the Broncos defense in Week 9 that was eviscerated by Leonard Fournette a few weeks ago. 

Statistical Observations

  • The Patriots defense leads the NFL with 25 turnovers. 
  • The Browns had turnovers on three consecutive offensive plays. This was the first time that any team has done so since the Dolphins had three consecutive turnovers back in Week 1, 2012 against the Texans and the only the seventh time it has been done since 2000 according to NFL Research. 

San Francisco 49ers 51, Carolina Panthers 13

Tevin Coleman’s four touchdowns helped to lead the 49ers (7-0) to a statement win over the Panthers (4-3). He rushed 11 times for 105 yards and three touchdowns. Coleman also had two receptions for 13 yards and a receiving touchdown. He is averaging 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Matt Breida rushed 11 times for 35 yards with one reception for 15 yards. Both Coleman and Breida are on the RB2 radar each week considering the number of rushing attempts per game the 49ers average. Jimmy Garoppolo completed 18 of 22 passes for 175 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He’s more of a weekly QB2 in San Francisco’s run-heavy offense. George Kittle caught six of seven targets for 86 yards. He’s had numerous touchdowns called back this season. Kittle remains an elite TE1. Emmanuel Sanders caught a touchdown pass in his first game with the 49ers. He caught four of five targets for 25 yards. Sanders lined up in the slot on 18 of 53 snaps. 

Kyle Allen imploded against the 49ers. He completed 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards and three interceptions. Cam Newton worked out during pregame warmups and could return next week. Curtis Samuel led the Panthers in targets with 11. He only caught four of them for 46 yards. The only bright spot on the Panthers offense this week was Christian McCaffrey. He rushed 14 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey also had four receptions for 38 receiving yards. He ranks fifth in rushing attempts (141) and third in targets (49). McCaffrey continues to be a matchup-proof RB1. The Panthers will look to bounce back against the Titans in Week 9.

Statistical Observations

  • Tevin Coleman is the first 49ers player with three or more touchdowns in the first half of a game since Jerry Rice in 1995 according to NFL Research. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 29, New York Jets 15

Sam Darnold’s three interceptions doom the Jets (1-6) against the Jaguars (4-4). Minshew bounced back nicely after two subpar games. He completed 22 of 34 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Minshew has a very favorable schedule moving forward especially during the fantasy playoffs. He has the potential to finish as a QB1 from here on out. D.J. Chark also bounced back catching six of 12 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. Chris Conley caught four of seven targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. A high percentage of his receiving yards came on a 70-yard touchdown pass. Leonard Fournette rushed 19 times for 76 yards and continues to be used a receiver out of the backfield finishing with seven receptions for 60 yards. The usage is encouraging, but his inability to score touchdowns is not. Fournette can continue to be viewed as a high-end RB2. He has averaged 26 opportunities and 18 PPR points per game this season. 

Ryan Griffin went out with a bang before the inevitable return of Chris Herndon. He caught all four of his targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Demaryius Thomas surprisingly led the Jets receivers in receptions and yards. Jamison Crowder only caught three of five targets for 24 yards. He has seven targets for 49 receiving yards over the Jets’ last two games. Robby Anderson missed on a potential long touchdown that was stopped due to defensive pass interference. He caught four of six targets for 43 yards in what could be Anderson’s final game with the Jets. The best way for New York’s offense to attack the Jaguars heading into the game was through Le’Veon Bell and the running game. Darnold’s ineffectiveness derailed the entire offense. Bell rushed nine times for 23 yards and had three receptions for 12 yards. He’s averaging 21.6 opportunities per game and remains a volume-based RB1. The Jets will look to get back on track against the Dolphins in Week 9. 

Statistical Observations

  • Chark’s 12 targets are a new season-high. 
  • Minshew is the first Jaguars quarterback to throw three touchdowns in a game in their rookie season. It’s the first three or more passing touchdown games for Jacksonville since Blake Bortles versus the Patriots in Week 2, 2018 according to NFL Research. 

New Orleans Saints 31, Arizona Cardinals 9

Drew Brees and the Saints (7-1) dominated the Cardinals (3-4-1) in the cozy confines of the Superdome. He looked sharp in his game back from a thumb injury. Brees completed 34 of 43 passes for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Thomas caught 11 of 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown as he put on a clinic against the Cardinals secondary with his catching and route-running ability. Latavius Murray rushed 21 times for 102 yards and a touchdown. He also had nine receptions for 55 yards and his first career receiving touchdown. Many expect Alvin Kamara to return to the fold after the Saints bye next week. Murray will still have standalone value upon his return. 

Murray completed 19 of 33 passes for 220 yards. He was stellar in the first half, but couldn’t get much going in the second half. Murray can be viewed as a QB2 considering his upcoming schedule. The Cardinals face the 49ers twice over the next three weeks before heading into their bye week. Arizona also has matchups against the Rams and Steelers coming out of their Week 12 bye. Larry Fitzgerald caught two of four targets for eight yards. Christian Kirk looked healthy in his return catching eight of 11 targets for 79 yards. He was also the Cardinals leading rusher and can be viewed as a weekly WR3. Charles Clay caught all three of his targets for 88 yards. Chase Edmonds rushed seven times for eight yards and had two receptions for five yards. The Cardinals face the 49ers in Week 9. 

Statistical Observations

  • Michael Thomas moves into the No. 4 spot on the Saints all-time receptions list, passing Jimmy Graham according to Pro Football Reference. 
  • This was the first time since Week 4 that Murray didn’t finish with double-digit rushing attempts. 
  • The Saints topped 500 or more total yards for the first time since Week1 according to NFL Research. This was the only other game Brees has started and finished this season.

Los Angeles Rams 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jared Goff and the Rams (5-3) cruise to a win over the Bengals (0-8) across the pond. The Los Angeles’ quarterback has a knack for having a high ceiling in a plus matchup and a ridiculously low floor in a difficult one. Goff completed 17 of 31 passes for 372 yards and two touchdowns. He’s more of a matchup based QB2. Cooper Kupp caught seven of 10 targets for 220 yards and one touchdown. He remains an elite WR1. The Rams lost Brandin Cooks to another concussion while Robert Woods finished with two receptions for 36 yards. Josh Reynolds filled the void left by Cooks by catching three of eight targets for 73 yards and one touchdown. Todd Gurley rushed 10 times for 44 yards and one touchdown. Darrell Henderson rushed 11 times for 49 yards. He added two receptions for 20 yards on three targets.

Andy Dalton completed 31 of 49 passes for 324 yards and one touchdown. Tyler Boyd caught six of eight targets for 65 yards. He can continue to be viewed as a WR2. Auden Tate led the Bengals with 12 targets and caught five of them for 65 yards. The potential return of A.J. Green following the Bengals bye week will affect his fantasy value moving forward. Tyler Eifert set new season-highs with six targets, nine receptions, and 74 receiving yards. Alex Erickson caught five of six targets for 92 yards. Were you aware he’s accumulated 13 receptions and 220 receiving yards over the last two weeks? Joe Mixon rushed 17 times for 66 yards and caught all four of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown. This is an excellent sell high opportunity for him since he’s been held hostage all season by the Bengals inconsistent offense. The Bengals will face the Ravens in Week 10.  

Statistical Observations

  • Woods’ two targets in this game were a season-low. 
  • Henderson (13) out-touched Gurley (10).
  • This was Dalton’s first 300-yard passing game since Week 2. 
  • Dalton is the only quarterback to record both an 0-8 record and an 8-0 record in the first eight games of a season according to NFL Research.

Indianapolis Colts 15, Denver Broncos 13

Adam Vinatieri’s field goal gives the Colts (5-2) the win over the Broncos (2-6). Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 25 passes for 202 yards. He’s deployed in lineups as a QB2 with upside in certain matchups. Jack Doyle led the Colts in receiving yards with 61. He caught four of five targets while T.Y. Hilton caught two of six targets for 54 yards. Hilton is more of a WR2 in the Colts run-heavy offense. Marlon Mack led the way on the ground with 19 rushing attempts for 76 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaged 21.6 opportunities per game this season and is a solid RB2.

Joe Flacco completed 20 of 32 passes for 174 yards. The only bright spot in the Broncos passing game was Courtland Sutton’s 72 receiving yards. He caught three of six targets. Lindsay led the way on the ground with 14 rushing attempts for 59 yards with Royce Freeman dealing with a shoulder injury. He also caught all five of his targets for 17 yards. The only offensive player from the Broncos that you can trust is Sutton. He’s a weekly WR2. 

Statistical Observations

  • Flacco hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 5. 

Tennessee Titans 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

The Titans (4-4) defense forced four turnovers on Buccaneers’ (2-5) quarterback Jameis Winston to get the win. Ryan Tannehill completed 21 of 33 passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a midrange QB2 in the Titans offense. Jonnu Smith caught six of seven targets for 78 yards and one touchdown with Delanie Walker inactive. He led the Titans in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Derrick Henry rushed 16 times for 75 yards. He continues to be a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Jameis Winston completed 21 of 43 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He also finished with 53 rushing yards and two fumbles. Mike Evans dominated with 198 yards and two touchdowns. He caught 11 of 12 targets. This was a nice reminder and why Evans should be started every week. For those looking to sell high and move on then this is a perfect opportunity to do so. Chris Godwin four of eight targets for 43 yards. Ronald Jones led the Buccaneers backfield with 35 rushing yards on 11 rushing attempts. He also had one reception for 17 yards. Tampa Bay’s backfield continues to be one to avoid. 

Statistical Observations

  • Evans (432) passed James Wilder (430) to become the Buccaneers’ franchise leader in receptions at the age of 26. 
  • Evans topped 40 or more fantasy points for the second time this season. He is the first Buccaneers’ player in franchise history with two career games of 40 plus fantasy points according to NFL Research.
  • Corey Davis led the Titans with 138 air yards. 

Detroit Lions 31, New York Giants 26

Matthew Stafford and the Lions (3-3-1) end their losing streak by defeating the Giants (2-6). He completed 25 of 32 passes for 342 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. He can be viewed as a QB1 next week against the Raiders. Golladay caught six of eight targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns. He can be viewed as a WR1. Tra Carson surprised everyone by leading the Lions backfield in touches. He finished with 34 yards on 12 rushing attempts. Ty Johnson rushed seven times for 25 yards and one reception for 13 yards. This is shaping up to be a backfield to avoid moving forward. 

Daniel Jones completed 28 of 41 passes for 322 yards and four touchdowns. He also had four rushing attempts for 13 yards while fumbling twice. This was his best stat line since Week 3. Jones does have a favorable rest of season schedule including the fantasy playoffs. Golden Tate caught eight of 10 targets for 85 yards. Saquon Barkley rushed 19 times for 64 yards while finishing with eight receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. The Giants will look to bounce back against the Cowboys in Week 9. 

Statistical Observations

  • Barkley’s 143 total yards were a season-high.
  • Daniel Jones is the 4th Giants rookie with three or more passing touchdowns in a game in the Super Bowl era according to NFL Research. He joins Eli Manning, Phil Simms, and Tom Kennedy. 

Los Angeles Chargers 17, Chicago Bears 16

The Chargers defeated the Bears after a missed Eddy Pineiro field goal. Rivers completed 19 of 29 passes for 201 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Mike Williams caught three of six targets for 69 yards. Keenan Allen caught seven of 10 targets for 53 yards. He played nearly 70 percent of the offensive snaps after it was reported that Allen would be on a snap count due to a hamstring injury. Austin Ekeler finished with three yards on three rushing attempts while catching two of three targets for 19 yards and a touchdown. He’s a weekly RB3 with upside. Melvin Gordon finished with 31 yards and a touchdown on eight rushing attempts. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2. The red hot Packers travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers in Week 9. 

Mitchell Trubisky completed 23 of 35 passes for 253 yards and an interception while rushing for 10 yards. You are in really bad shape if you’re forced to use him in lineups. Allen Robinson caught five of seven targets for 62 yards. He remains a weekly WR2. Anthony Miller led the Bears in receiving yards. He caught three of three targets for 67 yards. David Montgomery lead the way on the ground. He turned 27 rushing attempts into 135 yards. Montgomery also caught four of five targets for 12 yards. He’s averaged 17 opportunities per game and can be viewed as an RB2. The Bears face the Eagles in Week 9. 

Statistical Observations

  • Montgomery was given three rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. Trubisky attempted six passes inside the five-yard line. 

Quick Hits

Philadelphia Eagles 31, Buffalo Bills 13

Miles Sanders rushed three times for 74 yards and one touchdown in the Eagles win over the Bills. He also had three receptions for 44 yards for 118 yards and a touchdown before leaving the game in the second half with a shoulder injury. 

Seattle Seahawks 27, Atlanta Falcons 20

Russell Wilson completed 14 of 20 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns in the Seahawks win over the Falcons. 

Green Bay Packers 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24

Aaron Jones had 13 rushing attempts for 67 yards and caught seven of eight targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers win over the Chiefs. 

Conclusion

The Patriots and the Jets will face off against each other on Monday Night Football. Be on the lookout for the Week 9 edition of Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, my Week 8 rankings, and an analysis of some of our Advanced Metrics. If you have questions don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.

Eric Moody
Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee
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