NFL Pick’em Week 8: Man vs. Machine

NFL Pick’em Week 8

It’s crazy to think that we’re just getting to the halfway point of the NFL season already and it still feels like we know nothing about some teams. Others are just a complete mystery as to why they can’t succeed (I’m looking at you, Chargers). Week 7 saw some big storylines come to fruition with the reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes getting knocked out for a few weeks with an injury, the Bears “elite” defense crumbled again, the Eagles could not hang with the Cowboys, and we still have two undefeated teams (49ers and Patriots) and two teams without a win (Bengals and Dolphins). It was a confusing week for picks as we saw a lot of lopsided games with 10-of-13 decided by at least nine points.

As for my weekly battle with the machine, I am happy to say that in Week 7, man got the win! I went 13-12 (52%) in ATS/OU picks combined last week and the machine had it’s worst performance since Week 1 going 10-15 (40%). When looking at weekly head-to-head matchups, I am up right now with a record of 4-3, but the machine has the slightest edge in overall accuracy on the season with an 86-91 record (48.6%) while I am at 92-98 (48.4%). 

In case this is your first time reading this column on the season, here is a quick recap of what we are doing with our weekly pick’em column. We have partnered up with the folks over at Betting Antelope who will be providing “the machine” aspect of our weekly pick’em. If you’re unfamiliar with their product, Betting Antelope is an impressive machine learning model powered by SportsData.io and designed to predict moneyline, against the spread, over/under, and total team wins for NFL games. The model ingests data and trains itself each week as the season goes on, optimizing profitability by using a combination of regression and decision tree models to make picks. So this season, it’s my research, opinions, and instincts vs. the machine.

Now that we have recapped the season thus far, let’s take a look at our picks for Week 8!

For more info see FantasyData’s Latest NFL Odds page here.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Joe Mixon has 3.0 yards per carry this season — lowest of qualified RBs. The Rams have allowed 3.6 yards per carry this season — third-best in NFL.
• Bengals RBs have not rushed for any TDs on 111 carries this season — highest in NFL.
• Bengals WRs have been targeted 193 times this season — most in NFL.
• Bengals WRs have dropped 14 balls this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Bengals defense has allowed 7.3 yards after the catch this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 5.2
• The Bengals defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on 43 of 241 carries (17.8%) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11.5%
• Rams TEs have been targeted 2.8 times per game in the red zone this season — tied for highest in NFL; League Avg: 1.5
• Rams WRs have been targeted 189 times this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Rams defense has pressured opposing QBs 76 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.
• The Bengals are averaging 16.3 PPG overall this season and just 14.2 PPG on the road.
• The Rams have allowed 23.4 PPG overall this season but allow 28 PPG at home.
• The Rams are averaging 27.1 PPG overall this season but just 24.7 PPG at home.
• The Bengals have allowed 26.6 PPG this season.
• The Bengals are 3-4 ATS this season.
• The Rams are 5-2 ATS this season.

The winless Bengals just keep finding fun new ways to lose games each week. One of their biggest struggles this season continues to be their nonexistent running game. But last week against the Jags, four turnovers helped keep the team in the fight for the first overall pick in the draft next year. Andy Dalton was responsible for three INTs in the game while wideout Tyler Boyd lost a fumble. Something I mentioned in my article last week was the very real possibility that both the Bengals and Dolphins remain winless until they face each other in Week 16 and that stays alive for at least one more week with the Rams coming into this game as double-digit favorites.

The Rams are in the process of trying to convince everyone that everything is fine with their offense in their two games leading up to their bye week. The Rams got an easy win against a dumpster fire Falcons defense last week and now get to face the Bengals this week. The Rams have put up decent points most weeks but that horrendous performance against the 49ers shows a huge flaw in this team as a whole and they’re simply not the dominant force they were last season. In a cupcake matchup this week they’re an easy pick to cover but I am far from confident in this team going forward.

My Final Prediction: Rams win 27-13

My Pick: Rams -12.5, Under 47.5

Machine Pick: Bengals +12.5, Under 47.5

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Matchup Notes:

• The Seahawks have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 28.6% of dropbacks in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12.7%
• Russell Wilson has a 114.1 passer rating this season — second-best of qualified QBs. The Falcons have allowed a passer rating of 116.3 this season — second-highest in NFL.
• Russell Wilson has 12 touchdown passes in the red zone this season — second-most. The Falcons have allowed 11 passing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• Chris Carson has 161 touches this season — third-most among NFL RBs.
• Tyler Lockett has 40 receptions on 48 targets (83.3% Reception Pct) this season — best of 67 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 62.4%
• Devonta Freeman has no rushing TDs in his last 11 regular-season games.
• The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 52.9% of opponent drives this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 34.9%
• The Falcons defense has sacked opponents five times this season — fewest in NFL.
• The Seahawks are averaging 25.9 PPG overall this season and 29 PPG on the road.
• The Falcons have allowed 31.9 PPG overall this season (second-most in NFL) and 35.5 PPG on the road (most in NFL).
• The Falcons are averaging 20.7 PPG this season overall and 25.2 PPG on the road.
• The Seahawks have allowed 25.1 PPG overall this season but just 21.3 PPG on the road.
• The Seahawks are 3-4 ATS this season.
• The Falcons are 1-6 ATS this season.

The Seahawks are coming into this matchup off a disappointing home loss to the Ravens last week where they got pummeled 16-30. Russell Wilson uncharacteristically struggled and after not throwing an INT all season, he gave up a pick-six to newest Ravens CB Marcus Peters. The Seahawks defense let Lamar Jackson run all over them as he went for 116 yards and a rushing score. They held him under 200 yards passing, but this unit has now given up points totals of 29, 28, and 30 points over their last three games. Last week was only Seattle’s second loss of the season, but it seems like they have been in nail-biting circumstances almost every week with four of their seven games being decided by four points or less. They come into this game 3-0 on the road this season against a Falcons team that is in absolute shambles right now.

The Falcons’ biggest storylines of the season have been their horrendous defense and just how much longer they will tolerate Dan Quinn as their head coach. They have dropped five straight games and their defense has allowed at least 34 points in each of their last three games, and that includes games against an inexperienced Cardinals team, a somewhat struggling Rams offense, and a Texans team that destroyed them putting up 53 points alone. The make matters worse, Matt Ryan left the game last week with an injury and though signs point to him suiting up this week. I’m not entirely sure why as they really have nothing to play for at this point already and they have a Week 9 bye to make sure he is healthy for the stretch run. With Ryan less than 100% and their defense letting the opposing defense essentially run right by them, I am not comfortable betting on them to cover anywhere near the current spread.

My Final Prediction: Seahawks win 30-17

My Pick: Seahawks -6.5, Under 53

Machine Pick: Seahawks -6.5, Under 53

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-2)

Matchup Notes:

• Carson Wentz has 13 touchdown passes this season — tied for fifth-most. The Bills have allowed just four passing TDs this season — second-fewest in NFL.
• Jordan Howard has 2.6 yards after contact per carry this season — eighth-best of qualified RBs. The Bills have allowed 2.5 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for fourth-highest in NFL.
• Zach Ertz has been targeted nine times in the red zone this season — tied for most among NFL TEs.
• The Eagles defense has allowed 21 TDs this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has a passer rating of just 30.0 when attempting a pass of 20+ yards (31 attempts) this season — lowest of 34 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 92.8
• Josh Allen has turned the ball over on 7.7% of plays when pressured by the defense this season — fourth-highest of qualified QBs. The Eagles have pressured opposing QBs on 16.9% of passing plays this season — sixth-most in NFL.
• The Bills defense have forced three and outs on 34.3% of opponent drives this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 20.6%
• The Bills defensive line has missed 24 tackles this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Eagles are averaging 24.4 PPG overall this season but just 21 PPG on the road.
• The Bills have allowed 15.2 PPG overall this season (third-fewest in NFL) and 18 PPG at home.
• The Bills are averaging 20.2 PPG this season.
• The Eagles have allowed 26.6 PPG overall this season and 31.5 PPG on the road.
• The Eagles are 2-5 ATS this season.
• The Bills are 4-2 ATS this season.

The Eagles are at the tail end of a rough three-game stretch of road games as they have dropped their last two to the Vikings and Cowboys. The Eagles are a better team than their 10-point performance last week against the Cowboys would elude to. Their defense has struggled against the pass as usual still this week but the team as a whole will look to bounce back this week against a Bills team who have a solid defense but have had some sloppy wins this season, including last week’s game where they gave up 21 points to the Dolphins. The Eagles are still sitting at 3-4 right now which is exactly where they were at this point last season before going on a late run and making the playoffs.

Bills QB Josh Allen is basically a poor man’s Carson Wentz and he will try his best to take advantage of the team’s porous secondary. He likely won’t be able to rely on his legs to save him in this one as the Eagles run defense remains one of the best in the league. The Bills are unconvincing still despite their 5-1 record this season and have gotten there thanks to some ugly wins against teams under .500 this season. I’ve wrestled back and forth with this pick all week but at the end of the day I have more confidence in the Eagles offense than I do the Bills.  

My Final Prediction: Eagles win 23-20

My Pick: Eagles +2, Push O/U

Machine Pick: Eagles +2, Push O/U

Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Matchup Notes

• Philip Rivers has averaged 26.1 pass completions per game this season — second-best of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 19.0
• Chargers RBs have averaged 78.4 receiving yards per game this season — second-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged 54.3 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — fifth-highest in NFL.
• Chargers WRs have just three receiving TDs this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL. The Bears have allowed just six receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
• Mitchell Trubisky has averaged just 8.1 yards per completion this season — lowest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 11.4
• The Bears have thrown for 193.7 yards per game this season — third-lowest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 216.1 passing yards per game this season — fifth-best in NFL.
• The Bears defense has allowed an average of 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• The Chargers are averaging 20 PPG.
• The Bears have allowed 17.5 PPG this season.
• The Bears are averaging 18.7 PPG overall this season but just 14.7 PPG at home.
• The Chargers have allowed 20.1 PPG overall this season but just 15.3 PPG on the road.
• The Chargers are 1-4-2 ATS this season.
• The Bears are 2-4 ATS this season.

The Chargers have been one of the most unreliable teams to bet on this season when it comes to picks. They have dropped three in a row against the Broncos, Steelers, and Titans. All were games where you could have easily expected them to win. The running game has been stalled as they haven’t hit 80 rushing yards as a team since Week 2. Melvin Gordon’s return had zero impact on the offense and you could even argue it had a negative impact now that he is taking work away from Austin Ekeler who had been uber-efficient in Gordon’s absence. The only wins this team does have on its side have come in unspectacular fashion also as they barely beat the Colts in overtime back in Week 1 and had a gimme against the Dolphins in Week 4. Despite their negative play, they are a better team than this. We know that, we have seen it. This is a team that had some hype for a potential Super Bowl appearance before the season started and they’re not really missing any dynamic pieces on offense right now.

While the Bears have a reputation for being a daunting matchup, they too have struggled as of late with losses to the Raiders and Saints in their last two games where they allowed 24 and 36 points respectively. Chase Daniel, Mitch Trubisky, doesn’t really matter who is under center right now and it’s hard to say that they don’t miss Jordan Howard as a staple of the running game. You also can’t expect this team to establish the run if they offer nothing to be afraid of in the passing game. The Chargers just made Ryan Tannehill look like a savior for the Titans last week so there is some chance for the Bears to keep this game competitive at the very least. I’m not comfortable putting any money on either of these teams right now.

My Final Prediction: Chargers win 20-17

My Pick: Chargers +3.5, Under 41

Machine Pick: Bears -3.5, Over 41

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-6.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Daniel Jones has been pressured on 34.0% of plays this season — highest of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 21.8%
• Daniel Jones has committed 12 turnovers on 212 plays (5.7% turnover percentage) this season — highest of 28 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 2.7%
• Evan Engram has been targeted 8.8 times per game this season — highest of 26 qualified NFL TEs; League Avg: 3.1
• The Giants have committed 18 turnovers this season — most in NFL.
• The Giants defense has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Giants secondary has missed 32 tackles this season — second-most in NFL.
• Matthew Stafford has a 108.4 passer rating at home this season — fifth-best of qualified QBs. The Giants have allowed a passer rating of 118.0 on the road this season — third-highest in NFL.
• Lions WRs have caught eight TD passes in the red zone this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Giants are averaging 18.9 PPG overall this season and 21 PPG on the road.
• The Lions have allowed 26.7 PPG overall this season and 28.7 PPG at home.
• The Lions are averaging 24.8 PPG this season.
• The Giants have allowed 26.7 PPG overall this season and 33.7 PPG on the road.
• The Giants are 2-5 ATS this season.
• The Lions are 4-2 ATS this season.

The Giants are still coming back to full health right now which will be great news as they need to find a way to hide Daniel Jones’ incompetencies as a QB right now. They have lost three straight games and haven’t gone over 200 passing yards once during that stretch. They have turned the ball over seven times in their last two games alone. Getting Saquon Barkley integrated back into a workhorse role is going to be their best hope of winning anything for the rest of the season and could be a key in this game as the Lions have consistently allowed over 120 rushing yards to opponents in each of their last five games. The defense continues to be a mess all around but especially on the road. 

The Lions experienced a classic Matthew Stafford performance last week as the veteran QB threw for 364 yards and four TDs with one INT against their division rival Vikings but still lost. The Lions have also lost three straight games despite having put up 30 points in two of those matchups. Five of their six games this season have been decided by four points or less and they have looked a lot better than their 2-3-1 record would imply. The team lost Kerryon Johnson to IR after he injured his knee last week and are looking content to move forward with a committee of sixth-round rookie Ty Johnson and former Seahawk J.D. McKissic as their primary ball carriers. This running game has been stagnant all season so a changing of the guard can’t really be much of a downgrade. At the end of the day, I like the Lions at home even though they’re just 1-2 there this season and their offense has offered a lot more stability this season than the Giants. I worry a little about the Giants bombing and not carrying their weight to cover the over but it feels like the right call at the moment.

My Final Prediction: Lions win 30-21

My Pick: Lions -6.5, Over 49

Machine Pick: Giants +6.5, Over 49

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Deshaun Watson has a 109.3 passer rating at home this season — third-best of qualified QBs. The Raiders have allowed a passer rating of 119.8 on the road this season — second-highest in NFL.
• Deshaun Watson has 13 TD passes this season — tied for fifth-most. The Raiders have allowed 16 passing TDs this season — tied for third-most.
• DeAndre Hopkins has 14 receptions in close and late situations this season — most among NFL WRs.
• The Texans secondary has missed 38 tackles this season — most in NFL.
• The Texans defense has allowed 187 completions this season — most in NFL.
• Derek Carr has completed 82.6% of passes in the red zone this season — best of 31 qualified NFL QBs. The Texans defense has allowed 13 TD passes in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
• Josh Jacobs has averaged 5.2 touches per game in the red zone this season — second-highest of 48 qualified NFL RBs
• Darren Waller has 7.3 receptions per game this season — most among TEs.
• The Raiders are averaging 21.2 PPG this season.
• The Texans have allowed 23.4 PPG overall this season but just 20 PPG at home.
• The Texans are averaging 26.4 PPG this season.
• The Raiders have allowed 27.5 PPG overall this season and 30.2 PPG on the road.
• The Raiders are 3-3 ATS this season.
• The Texans are 4-3 ATS this season.

I said it last week, the Raiders always burn me. They looked respectable for two games with wins against the Colts and Bears, get a bye week to freshen up and admire their successes, then come back against the Packers playing without their WR1 and completely banged up at WR in general and get clobbered 24-42. Aaron Rodgers had an epic performance last week as he tagged the Raiders for six total TDs. The Raiders put some decent performances down in the boxscore with rookie RB Josh Jacobs continuing to be hot with 124 yards on the ground and TE Darren Waller continued his own breakout going 7-126-2 as the teams leading receiving option. WR Tyrell Williams could be back this week which will give the offense a boost. The Raiders have had trouble getting blown out on occasion this season against good teams and last week was one of those occasions.

The Texans are 4-3 right now and have done really well despite a tough schedule. They are coming off a surprising loss against the Colts last week who also lost to the Raiders earlier this season, so by connecting the dots there you could argue the Raiders have a chance. I don’t really think that is the case, however, as the Texans are simply the better team on both sides of the ball. It sounds like Josh Jacobs is beaten up a bit for the Raiders also which will make it easier for the Texans to just contain Derek Carr in the passing game. Deshaun Watson should have no problem attacking this defense and has a ton of upside after seeing what Rodgers did to them last week.

My Final Prediction: Texans win 30-26

My Pick: Raiders +6.5, Over 51.5

Machine Pick: Raiders +6.5, Under 51.5

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)

Matchup Notes:

• Sam Darnold has a passer rating of just 30.4 against the blitz (40 pass attempts) this season — lowest of 36 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 90.2
• Jets WRs have just one TD on 68 receptions this season — highest reception per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.2
• Le’Veon Bell has broken 20 tackles this season — third-most among NFL RBs.
• The Jets have gone three and out on 35.6% of their drives this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20.6%
• Leonard Fournette has averaged 153.5 yards from scrimmage per game at home this season — second-best of 30 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 41.0
• Leonard Fournette has averaged 3.5 yards after contact per carry this season — best of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.2
• D.J. Chark has 12 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd most among NFL WRs
• The Jets are averaging 10.5 PPG this season.
• The Jaguars have allowed 21.1 PPG this season.
• The Jaguars are averaging 20.6 PPG overall this season but just 17.3 PPG at home.
• The Jets have allowed 26 PPG overall this season and 30.5 PPG on the road.
• The Jets are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Jaguars are 4-3 ATS this season.

Last week went pretty much as expected for the Jets as they were shut out 0-33 against the Patriots. After Sam Darnold came back with a vengeance in Week 6 beating the Cowboys 24-22, he gave us his best Jared Goff impression against the Patriots throwing for just 86 yards with four INTs. As much as I don’t like the Jets, they’re not as bad as last week would suggest, but I also don’t think they can consistently be as good as we saw in Week 6 against the Cowboys making this week’s game against the Jags a tough one to call. The Jets are heavy favorites to cover the spread this week but I just don’t trust them.

The Jags are coming off an easy win against the Bengals last week and had competitive losses to the Saints and Panthers in the weeks before that. Gardner Minshew continues to look better than a backup and honestly, if I had to pick between him and Darnold as the QB for my franchise right now, I would pick Minshew. Despite getting blown out last week, the Jets held the Patriots under 100 rushing yards as a team and have done that in four of six games which could make it tougher for the Jags to lean on Leonard Fournette. I like the Jags to win by a score based on how bad we know the Jets offense can be.

My Final Prediction: Jaguars win 24-17

My Pick: Jaguars -6, Over 40.5

Machine Pick: Jets +6, Under 40.5

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-10)

Matchup Notes:

• Kyler Murray has been sacked 23 times this season — tied for fourth-most. The Saints have sacked the quarterback 20 times this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
• Cardinals RBs have seven receptions for 20+ yards this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Cardinals defense has intercepted one of 245 attempts this season.
• The Cardinals defense has allowed 17 TD passes this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Cardinals defense has forced 12 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• Teddy Bridgewater has a 112.8 passer rating in the red zone this season — fifth-best of qualified QBs. The Cardinals have allowed a passer rating of 102.4 when defending in the red zone this season — eighth-highest in NFL.
• Michael Thomas has averaged 109 receiving yards per game this season — second-best of 47 qualified NFL WRs.
• The Saints defense has hit opposing QBs on 20.7% of dropbacks in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.8%
• The Saints defense has allowed 338 passing yards when they have pressured the QB this season — most in NFL.
• The Cardinals are averaging 23 PPG.
• The Saints have allowed 21 PPG this season.
• The Saints are averaging 23.4 PPG.
• The Cardinals have allowed 27.4 PPG overall this season but just 22.3 PPG on the road.
• Both teams are 5-2 ATS this season.

The Cardinals are coming into this game with some steam as they’ve won three straight games. While the competition hasn’t been much to write home about, it is enough to give this young team some much-needed confidence. The team got stronger on defense with Patrick Peterson making his return felt. The offense was primarily without franchise RB David Johnson last week but got an outstanding performance from backup Chase Edmonds. I don’t think there is a chance the Cards win this thing, but I think they can keep it close enough to cover such a generous spread. 

The Saints defense has been on a roll lately and should be licking their chops getting to play at home against a rookie QB. Teddy Bridgewater continues to manage this team well enough to not make you yearn for Drew Brees to hurry back. It feels like there is a little bit of luck involved in the Saints owning a 6-1 record right now though when you look at their points scored from week-to-week being 30, 9, 33, 12, 31, 13, 36. The definition of a roller coaster in scoring. That trend could continue this week as the Cards defense looked better with CB Patrick Peterson back in the fold. I think the Cards keep this close enough to cover.

My Final Prediction: Saints win 27-20

My Pick: Cardinals +10, Under 48

Machine Pick: Saints -10, Under 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Matchup Notes:

• Chris Godwin has averaged 110.3 receiving yards per game this season — best amongst WRs.
• Chris Godwin has 13 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most among NFL WRs.
• Jameis Winston has been sacked 4.2 times per game this season — tied for highest of 32 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 2.0
• The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 28.7% of plays this season — second-highest in NFL; League Avg: 17.0%
• The Buccaneers defense has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4
• The Titans have been sacked on 13.1% of pass attempts this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 6.5%
• Titans WRs have been targeted seven times in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Titans defense has allowed an average of 3.0 yards after contact per carry this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
• The Bucs are averaging 28.8 PPG overall this season (fourth-most in NFL) and 31.2 PPG on the road.
• The Titans have allowed 16 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Titans are averaging 17.3 PPG this season.
• The Bucs have allowed 30.8 PPG this season — third-most in NFL.
• The Bucs are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Titans are 2-4-1 ATS this season.

The Bucs are coming into this game fresh off a bye but unless they leave Jameis Winston in Tampa for this one, they will likely continue to struggle to put up consistent production on offense. The Bucs have lost their last two games and they have given up at least 31 points to every team this season except the Cam Newton-led Panthers back in Week 2. I don’t know that Ryan Tannehill is really that much better of a QB than Marcus Mariota, but against this Bucs defense, it will probably look like it again this week. The Titans defense has also shown the ability to shut down opposing offenses this season and are due for a big game. Though the Bucs are capable of putting ugly volume up on the board, I just don’t really see it happening this week and for all their defensive struggles, they have completely shut down their opponents in the running game this season which doesn’t bode well for Derrick Henry. It should be a close game still but I am not expecting a shoot out.

My Final Prediction: Titans win 27-24

My Pick: Push, Over 46

Machine Pick: Titans -3, Over 46

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Matchup Notes:

• Kyle Allen has not been intercepted (106 pass attempts) when not under pressure this season-best of 35 qualified NFL QBs.
• Christian McCaffrey has averaged 153.8 yards from scrimmage per game this season — best of 65 qualified NFL RBs.
• The Panthers defense has sacked opponents 27 times this season — most in NFL.
• The Panthers defense has nine interceptions this season — second-most in NFL.
• Jimmy Garoppolo has a 90.8 passer rating this season — 10th lowest of qualified QBs. The Panthers have allowed a passer rating of 73.2 this season — fourth-best in NFL.
• Matt Breida has averaged 3.5 yards before contact per carry this season-best of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
• 49ers WRs have 49 receptions this season — fewest in NFL.
• The 49ers have thrown the ball 41.0% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55.1%
• The 49ers defense has allowed one rushing TD on 132 carries this season — second-best in NFL.
• The 49ers defense has allowed 133.5 passing yards per game this season-best in NFL; League Avg: 240.4
• The Panthers are averaging 27.7 PPG overall this season (fifth-most in NFL) and 30.3 PPG on the road.
• The 49ers have allowed 10.7 PPG this season.
• The 49ers are averaging 26 PPG this season.
• The Panthers have allowed 22.2 PPG this season.
• Both teams are 4-2 ATS this season.

The Panthers are coming into this game fresh off their bye and will pose as the toughest threat the 49ers have seen so far this season. Carolina has won each of their last four games which is pretty impressive considering three of those were road games and one was even in London. Now they will travel again, this time to the West Coast. The Panthers have put up at least 34 points in three for their last four games but will have a tough test this week against one of the last two unbeaten teams in the NFL. The Panthers will need to hope that Christian McCaffrey can summon all the power in his body to run against the 49ers as they unbelievably haven’t allowed any of the last three teams they’ve faced over 80 total passing yards.

The 49ers are coming off a 9-0 shutout win against the Redskins last week in a game that saw some seriously wet conditions. The Niners have allowed just 10 total points over their last three games combined. The 49ers haven’t had to ask for much from their passing game this season but may need to this week in what should be one of their most competitive games of the season. They also got a new weapon in the passing game by trading for Emmanuel Sanders who is believed to be playing this week. I still think the 49ers defense is strong enough to keep this game in hand. 

My Final Prediction: 49ers win 21-17

My Pick: Panthers +6, Under 42.5

Machine Pick: Push, Under 42.5

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Phillip Lindsay has 4.6 yards per carry this season — ninth-best of qualified RBs. The Colts have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season — tied for fourth-highest in NFL.
• Broncos WRs have 13 receptions in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
• The Broncos defense has allowed 11 TDs this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.
• Jacoby Brissett has 14 TD passes this season — fourth-most. The Broncos have allowed just six passing TDs this season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
• Eric Ebron has averaged 15.8 yards per reception this season — best of 27 qualified NFL TEs; League Avg: 11.2
• Colts RBs have rushed for one TD on 23 carries in the red zone this season.
• The Broncos are averaging 16 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in NFL.
• The Colts have allowed 23 PPG overall this season and 26 PPG at home.
• The Colts are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season and 27 PPG at home.
• The Broncos have allowed 19.4 PPG this season.
• The Broncos are 3-4 ATS this season.
• The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS this season.

The Broncos have played in some close games this season but have had a hard time coming out on the winning side looking at a 2-5 record through seven weeks. Last week was not one of those close games as the Broncos lost 6-30 against a Chiefs team that lost Patrick Mahomes in the contest. Joe Flacco is still not a good QB and now has one less weapon with Emmanuel Sanders being traded to the 49ers. The Broncos have been under 200 total passing yards in four of their last five games and just don’t look like they have the offensive capability to keep up with the first-place Colts.

The Colts are coming off a huge win with potential playoff implications last week against their division rival the Houston Texans. It has been tough to peg the identity of the Colts this season as they win clutch games like last week but then mysteriously lose games at home against teams like the Raiders. I would expect last week’s momentum to carry over for the Colts and they should be able to handle the Broncos without much problem. 

My Final Prediction: Colts win 26-20

My Pick: Colts -5.5, Over 43

Machine Pick: Colts -5.5, Over 43

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11.5)

Matchup Notes:

• Baker Mayfield has a 66.0 passer rating this season — lowest of qualified QBs. The Patriots have allowed a passer rating of 35.6 this season — best in NFL.
• Baker Mayfield has turned the ball over on 7.1% of plays when pressured by the defense this season — fifth-highest of qualified QBs. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 20.8% of passing plays this season — most in NFL.
• Browns WRs have just one TD on 66 receptions this season — second-highest reception per TD rate in NFL.
• Nick Chubb has averaged 3.9 yards after contact per carry (23 carries) on rushes up the middle this season — best of 36 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 2.0
• Tom Brady has completed 69.7% of passes at home this season — eighth-best of qualified QBs. The Browns have allowed a completion rate of 71.3% on the road this season — fifth-highest in NFL.
• Patriots RBs have averaged 1.1 yards after contact per carry this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
• The Patriots defense has allowed just one passing TD (242 pass attempts) this season — best in NFL.
• The Browns are averaging 20 PPG this season.
• The Patriots have allowed just 6.9 (awesome) PPG this season (fewest in NFL).
• The Patriots are averaging 31.9 PPG this season — most in NFL.
• The Browns have allowed 25.7 PPG this season but just 19.7 PPG on the road.
• The Browns are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Patriots are 5-2 ATS this season.

The Browns are coming fresh off a bye but will probably be wishing they still had another week off with a daunting matchup at the Patriots. The Browns struggles all around have been well documented this season and I think it’s going to take a little more than a bye week to fix their problems. The Patriots defense has been playing as good as any team we have seen in the modern era, making this an absolute downer for the Browns to try and save their season. This is not the matchup that turnover-prone young quarterback needs to get right.

There is not much more you can say about the Pats that hasn’t already been said this season. Sure, their opponents haven’t been tough, but neither are the Browns. There isn’t much of a chance at all that the Pats come close to losing this one and they should look to cover the spread for the sixth time this season. Even covering the spread should be considered a win for this Browns team at this point in their season.

My Final Prediction: Patriots win 33-10

My Pick: Patriots -11.5, Under 46

Machine Pick: Push, Push

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs 

Matchup Notes:

• The Packers have scored 17 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 15 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
• Aaron Rodgers has 14 completions for 20+ yards against the blitz this season — most among NFL QBs.
• Packers RBs have averaged 1.4 yards after contact per carry this season — third-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 2.2
• Chiefs WRs have caught 13 touchdown passes this season — most in NFL.
• Chiefs WRs has gained 1,319 yards on 82 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — tied for best in NFL. The Packers have allowed 17.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — highest in NFL.
• LeSean McCoy has 5.4 yards per carry this season — third-best of qualified RBs. The Packers have allowed 5.0 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for highest in NFL.
• The Chiefs defense has forced 12 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Chiefs and Packers defense have each forced four turnovers in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.
• The Packers are averaging 26.3 PPG this season.
• The Chiefs have allowed 21.4 PPG overall this season and 26 PPG at home.
• The Chiefs are averaging 28.9 PPG overall this season (third-most in NFL) but just 23.3 PPG at home.
• The Packers have allowed 19.9 PPG overall this season but just 13.5 PPG on the road.
• The Packers are 5-2 ATS this season.
• The Chiefs are 4-3 ATS this season.

What a marquee matchup this would be if Pat Mahomes was somehow able to make the start this week and look anywhere near healthy. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a very impressive dismantling of the Raiders last week where the future HOFer put up six totals TDs. The Packers have impressively made things work without Davante Adams being in the lineup the last few weeks and though the Chiefs defense showed up big last week, things won’t be so easy for them this week. Mahomes seems very unlikely to suit up which makes this feel like an easy win for the Pack.

The Chiefs have remained one of the highest-scoring teams in the league this season and, as mentioned, they even got some help from their defense last week. Life will be different for them with Matt Moore likely making the start this week and home-field advantage hasn’t exactly been what it usually is for the Chiefs this season as they’ve dropped their last two at home against the Colts and Texans. The Packers, on the other hand, have won both of their road games this season against the Bears and Cowboys. With Mahomes in there, this is a close game. Without him, it’s a one-sided affair.

My Final Prediction: Packers win 28-21

My Pick: Packers -3.5, Over 48

Machine Pick: Packers -3.5, Push

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

Matchup Notes:

• The Dolphins defense has intercepted one of 168 attempts this season — 2nd highest in NFL.
• The Dolphins defense has allowed 23 TDs this season — second-most in NFL.
• The Dolphins defense has forced three turnovers this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• Mason Rudolph has gained 34.4% of his total passing yards through the air when not under pressure this season — lowest of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 53.0%
• Steelers WRs have not caught a touchdown pass in the red zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• James Conner has 3.2 yards per carry this season — second-lowest of qualified RBs. The Dolphins have allowed 4.8 yards per carry to RBs this season — sixth-highest in NFL.
• The Dolphins are averaging 10.5 PPG this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
• The Steelers have allowed 21.8 PPG this season.
• The Steelers are averaging 20.5 PPG overall this season and 25.3 PPG at home.
• The Dolphins have allowed 35.2 PPG this season.
• The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS this season.
• The Steelers are 3-2-1 ATS this season.

We get a dud of a matchup to end our action in Week 8 as the winless Dolphins take on the least exciting Steelers team we have seen in years. The Dolphins have actually looked semi-competitive over their last two games and managed to put up a season-high 21 points against a pretty strong Bills defense last week. That was also the most points any team has put up against the Bills this season despite the fact that they have played the Patriots once already. The Steelers offense is far from explosive which makes me think the Dolphins actually have a chance to cover, but a straight-up win is not happening. 

The Steelers offense has been consistently mediocre this season and have come away with two wins thanks to the Chargers being a mess and the Bengals playing for last place. Mason Rudolph gets a welcome back gift going up against the Dolphins, but I would imagine the Steelers probably just try and keep leaning on their running game to keep the offense moving. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can harness some of his magic and keep this game close, it could actually turn into an exciting matchup, but I’m not expecting much fireworks in this one. 

My Final Prediction: Steelers win 27-14

My Pick: Dolphins +14, Under 43

Machine Pick: Steelers -14, Under 43