DraftKings NFL Picks Week 8
Initial Thoughts
At first glance, I see a lot of good “fantasy” games and match-ups, plus we get the extra game this week with only two teams on a bye. I don’t think we’ll see heavy chalk outside of the RB position, and even that could get spread out a bit better than last week. As you read this article, it’s my actual game by game research I am creating shareable notes for in paragraph form. I’m looking forward to digging in and seeing what we can do with our player pools this week.
Review
“Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Process
The process I use for this article and for selecting my player pool starts with the data I collect and chart. The match-up chart and individual match-ups are the first layers of the onion. Once we have that peeled we should have a sizable player pool to work with. The next step is to reconcile that data. I use the Google sheet above to reconcile the match-up chart by looking at what the opposing teams did to allow those numbers. Who did they face to get there? What were the game environments like? I try to watch as many games as I can, but I can’t watch them all, so I do a lot of reading from my Beat Writer list to keep up with injuries, changes to the way the team is playing, and look for other general trends to consider. Using Fantasy Data’s resources helps get a snapshot on a team and player level for the offenses to see what type of numbers they are putting up. Then, it’s about identifying what the top plays are for the slate, and how heavily they will be owned. This is where we need to have some pivots in our back pocket, and if necessary some punts if we want to jam in a bunch of elite plays and have to look for a value guy to put up 10 or more points. Game theory, contest selection, and roster construction are the final challenges as we try to put it all together. This where we win or lose.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Seattle Seahawks (29.75/-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons (23.25/+6.5) [53]
The Seahawks let one get away at home against the Ravens last week. They have a nice rebound partner with the flailing and selling Falcons who enter the game at 1-6. The Falcons have been awful against the pass this year, especially on the outsides. They have no pass rush and even if their corners cover the initial route, they are losing guys with QBs buying time to throw. The Seahawks are not a pass-first team but should be able to get in enough passes to make a difference here. Per the match-up chart, we can see ATL is giving up the most points in the NFL to opposing QBs. Russell Wilson ($7200) comes in as the most expensive QB on the slate because of this and his own talent. Wilson is still maintaining residence toward the top of our Advanced Metrics for all categories, but the Deep Ball Passing stats are what helps us rack up bigger points in DFS. Wilson has two receivers with more than 11 deep targets (targets that travel more than 20 yards in the air before reaching the receiver) this year allowing us a full passing stack from the Seahawks if we can afford it. Tyler Lockett ($7000) has reached elite pricing status, at least for this week, but would be the top stacking partner for Wilson if going here. Lockett sees less than ideal targets but makes up for it with efficiency and has 2.39 PPR points per target (11th among WRs). The other guy we can look at here is DK Metcalf ($5000) for $2k cheaper. Metcalf has 11 deep targets at 14.7 Air Yards per target (2nd among WRs). His average DK points per game are more along the lines of a slot receiver though, so we would be looking for a deep strike TD or two to get him into the 20-30 point range. It’s within his range of outcomes against this defense, but Lockett is the stronger play between the two. The Falcons allow 1.5 rushing TDs per game (to go along with their 2.75 passing TDs allowed) so Chris Carson ($7000) has to be on the radar here, especially if the game gets out of hand quick and Seattle chooses to stick to their run-heavy tendencies to run out the clock.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Keep an eye out to see if Danny Etling is elevated to the 53 man roster, as this will be the signal Matt Ryan will not play. The starting left guard (Carpenter) has been ruled out, as has Ito Smith – which bumps Freeman up just a tad.
The Falcons are a mess right now, on both sides of the ball. Matt Ryan ($6000) hurt his ankle last week which may affect his game if he plays here. The Falcons also dealt slot man Mo Sanu to the Patriots this week and left the door open for a possible punt option with Russell Gage ($3000) mentioned by Dan Quinn as a probable rotational guy in the slot with Calvin Ridley ($5600). Julio Jones ($7700) was also mentioned as someone who could get some snaps int here as well. Ridley now looks under-priced for his role here and should be considered a solid pivot option if you need to stay in that mid-$5k range for receivers this week. His target share should spike this week and he is a TD machine over the short span of his career. They are going to need him to help keep pace int his game. Julio Jones ($7700) is always a threat to break the slate and has been solid, yet unspectacular so far. It’s coming for him sooner or later. Seattle has been pretty tough on #1 WRs though, so we may not see high ownership on him if he goes bananas this week. The softest spot on the match-up chart for the Seattle defense is at TE, where they are allowing the 5th highest average points to TEs on the slate. Austin Hooper ($5500) sets up well in this game and is price about $1k too low for what he has accomplished this year. Devonta Freeman ($5500) was just starting to get on a roll before Atlanta was forced to abandon the run last week and he tanked DFS line-ups. Seattle allows a healthy 4.9 YPC and surrenders 1.67 rushing TDs per game. Factor that into what Freeman can do in the passing game and he looks a little under-priced this week.
Philadelphia Eagles (20.5/+2) at Buffalo Bills (22.5/-2) [43]
Buffalo has one of the better defenses in the league and is just a tier behind New England and San Francisco right now. The Eagles are imploding and unless they can manage a “get right” game here are probably on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. That should be good enough motivation to get it going, but it’s hard to trust anyone on this offense as a fantasy asset right now. They are best left for MME and contrarian builds this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to hammer the run game this week making Jordan Howard ($4600) a punt to consider.
The match-up in the passing game favors the Bills passing attack, but so did last week and they didn’t put up the numbers many were expecting. Josh Allen ($6500) is still missing plays but his mobility should help him avoid the pass rush and extend plays against a bad secondary here. Pairing him with his top deep threat John Brown ($5900) will be something I will go back to the well with this week and hope for better results.
Los Angeles Chargers (18.75/+3.5) at Chicago Bears (22.25/-3.5) [41]
The Bears defense is forcing teams to throw away from their receivers this year(2nd lowest percentage of targets in the NFL) producing the highest percentage of pass attempts going toward RBs on the slate. Both Melvin Gordon ($5400) and Austin Ekeler ($5900) are solid plays this week. Both are priced way down from the start of the year, and with Akiem Hicks on IR we saw how vulnerable they are to the run with Lat Murray hammering them for 119 yards last week. Both of these guys will play an important role for the Chargers this week and should get a boost on the OL with the return of Russell Okung. Keenan Allen ($6400) shouldn’t be avoided, as the Bears are exactly league average to opponent #1 WRs and Keenan will get his targets.
The Bears ran the ball 7 times and threw it 54 times last week. Matt Nagy took a lot of heat for it, considering he doesn’t have the QB for that and the players had a players-only meeting to discuss what they needed to. This week should see the ratio come back toward a typical 60/40 split, but they will still throw enough to keep Allen Robinson ($6000) playable. He had a tough match-up against a much-improved Saints secondary last week and still managed 10 catches for 87 yards and a TD. That should be about his floor here with upside for more against a Chargers secondary that has allowed opposing #1 WRs to go for 17+ plus DK points in 5 out of 6 games, including 2 games above 28 points. Mitch Trubisky ($4900) is looking shook this year and seemed a bit agitated at the Bears Wednesday presser. Perhaps he’s on the verge of a turn around with all that’s going on there at Halas Hall. Hard to know for sure, but he is priced below $5k this week and makes for an interesting punt if you are a multi-entry player.
New York Giants (21.25/+6.5) at Detroit Lions (27.75/-6.5) [49]
This match-up looks great for Saquon Barkley ($8900). Detroit is getting gashed by RB1s allowing a league-high 23.5 DK points per game to them (also a league-high 7.6 DK points over league average). The Lions are surrendering 1.67 passing TDs per game and have allowed multiple passing TDs in 4 out of 6 games this year which also means Daniel Jones ($5800) should be on our radar. He had a bad game last week, which may keep ownership down. Golden Tate ($5800) has a revenge game narrative going here against the team that traded him away to Philly last year. It so happens the slot is the weakest link for the Lions coverage unit (18.4 DK PPG is highest of the slate as is the 7.7 points above league average to slot WRs) and they just traded away a really good safety by shipping Diggs out to Seattle. The Lions LB/S coverage has been pretty tight and they haven’t allowed a TE to have a big game against them yet (they’ve faced Kelce and Ertz). Evan Engram ($5300) is more bet on talent/contrarian play this week, but the loss of Diggs at safety makes him interesting.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Darius Slay has been ruled out opening up a punt option with Darius Slayton ($3900) at WR for the Giants.
The Giants have been getting hammered by opposing #1 WRs this year (Cooper, Evans, Thielen, and Edelman) but then got run all over by Chase Edmonds last week. With the Lions losing Kerryon to IR, it’s possible they continue their deep passing ways but will have a less dangerous backfield for opponents to concern themselves with. Matthew Stafford ($6100) still finds himself second on the list for deep passes attempted, even after having a bye week. Likewise, Kenny Golladay ($6400) still sits in second for deep targets with 15. Marvin Jones ($5800) isn’t too far behind him with 11. Both of these guys and Stafford are in play as a high-end pass stack for players who don’t enter a ton of line-ups. Golladay was quiet last week while Jones went bonkers. Golladay should spend most of his time running routes at rookie DeAndre Baker on an indoor surface making him a top WR play this week. Even if Jenkins covers him some, both of those corners are averaging over 11 PPR points a game in their coverage. It seems likely the Lions will use a committee backfield with Kerryon out, and it’s even possible that Paul Perkins (former employer narrative) leads the committee this week. He’s not in the DK player pool, and the rest of the backs don’t inspire much confidence for me that they will be 20+ point scorers if they go to a committee, which is what Patricia is used to from New England, however, Bevell has had bell-cow backs in his history.
New York Jets (17.25/+6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (23.25/-6) [40.5]
Even after an embarrassing MNF game Sam Darnold ($5500) is still going to attract some ownership here. He’s shown flashes of becoming a good QB, and people will expect a bounce-back game for him here. It is certainly within the range of outcomes, but it will be quite a challenge to put up good numbers down there in Duval. The Jags are only allowing 1.29 passing TDs per game and a multiple TD passing game in 2 out of 7 games this year. Darnold also has a toe injury that he will play through, which may need to be a concern of ours. If Darnold is healthy and gets it going though, then we should be targeting Robby Anderson ($4900) to stack him with. Jamison Crowder ($4800) is too expensive for his short passing role but could hit if he somehow scores a couple of TDs. The punt play from this offense is Demaryius Thomas ($3300) who is becoming more and more a focus of the passing game and already has 2 games of 9 targets (28% target share last week). Getting 9 targets for $3300 is a steal. Le’Veon Bell ($6900) has seen his volume dip the last two games in what is a very low volume offense. They did play two strong defenses back to back though, and we can expect a little spike back up to his usual opportunity share here. The Jags will be without Dareus in the middle of the DL which will present an opportunity for Bell to finally put some yards together on the ground.
Leonard Fournette ($7800) is one of the NFL uber-backs but has not had much TD luck this year. The good news is the Jets defense is leading the league in rushing TDs allowed with 10 so we could see him finally get a multi-TD game here, which NY has allowed in half their game this year. The Jets outside corners are not great, but they have been somehow managing to keep teams from scoring too much through the air. Perhaps it’s due to teams taking their foot off the pedal late in games and chugging it out with the run. Whatever it is, I’m not in love with the Jags passing game here, but wouldn’t mind taking a shot in some builds with TD machine DJ Chark ($6000).
Cincinnati Bengals (17.5/+12.5) at Los Angeles Rams (30.0/-12.5) [47.5]
Head coach and play-caller Zac Taylor will face his former mentor when he travels to London to face the Rams. There’s not much to like with the Bengals offense right now, so keep them in MME and contrarian build pools but not tighter core builds. If AJ Green ($5900) returns this week it could help Tyler Boyd ($5100) shake some coverage, but Boyd will be matched up with Robey-Coleman in the slot which is bad news for Boyd. Let someone else roster these guys.
Andrew Whitworth has a former employer narrative which will be exacted mostly in the run game. The Bengals are allowing 189 yards per game on the ground which is most in the league by nearly 30 yards. This match-up is as good as it gets for Todd Gurley ($7400). Gurley was clearing 65 snaps per game in the two games before their bye week. Then they let up in Atlanta and let them beat themselves. If this game gets out of hand early, then we might see Gurley spending time on the sidelines keeping the knee healthy. If that happens, then hopefully it means he’s already run for 100 yards and punched in a couple of TDs to get to that point. The Rams passing offense may not have to do much here, which has me hesitant to roster them at any sort of high exposure percentage. They already split targets fairly evenly, except when Kupp has one of his monster games. With team snot having to pass on the Bengals to win, I’m passing on the Rams receivers and Goff and sticking with Gurley and the Rams DST ($3800) here.
Arizona Cardinals (19.0/+10) at New Orleans Saints (29.0/-10) [48]
The Saints have some injury news of their own with Drew Brees ($6300) a possibility to return, and Alvin Kamara ($7600) and Jared Cook ($4000) listed as DNP for the first day of practice this week. I’ll have my eye on both guys as possible plays but would really like to roster Jared Cook, if available. He’s next up on the Arizona vs TE flow chart. Arizona put the kibosh on that narrative last week though, holding Evan Engram to 1 catch on 5 targets, but did allow the #2 TE to score a TD. With the narrow opportunity share the Saints have and a better QB than Jones throwing passes, I would expect Cook (or even Hill) to have relevance this week. Michael Thomas ($8000) continues to dominate targets and defenses this year. He was all the Saints had last week in the passing game but the Bears still couldn’t contain him. The Cards may try to put Peterson in shadow coverage on him, which will be a great life match-up and could pose a challenge for Mike…thus my interest in Cook. The Cards are not great against slot receivers, so if they can get Mike in there for more than his usual handful, that would boost his upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21.5/+3) at Tennessee Titans (24.5/-3) [46]
Tampa comes off their bye week after a disaster in London having time to try and reconfigure the offense. The Titans are going to be a tough challenge for them, but with the extra week of prep, there has to be something that pops for them here. The main focus could be Chris Godwin ($7100) in the slot against Logan Ryan who has allowed 10.1 PPR points to opposing WRs in his coverage. Tennessee has funneled a lot of targets and yards to the RB position this year, allowing big receiving games from Ekeler, Davonta Freeman, and Royce Freeman so the Bucs may look to exploit that. Dare Ogunbowale ($3200) is the primary pass-catching back for Tampa and has a sweet price for a punt option in a good spot.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Walker has been ruled out, so Smith opens up a cheap punt option at TE this week. Although, if I’m playing Tanny I might rather stack him with AJ Brown. Also ruled out was Adoree Jackson, the Titans top corner. Stack this game up with the passing options, as both teams are going to let it fly.
The Titans replaced the QB and called a game to ensure it looked like the correct decision. Now we get to see him face off against a pass funnel defense, which will continue to make it look like the correct decision for at least another week. Ryan Tannehill ($5100) is squarely in play this week against a bad Bucs secondary. He’s priced like a punt, too, which will help squeeze in some of the top plays of the slate into builds that have him. Judging by his last game, it appears Tanny is willing to throw to his outside guys more than Mariota was with both Corey Davis ($4400) and AJ Brown ($4100) getting 6 catches on 7 and 8 targets, respectively. Tampa has been nearly as bad as Arizona against TEs, too, so keep an eye on the health of Delanie Walker ($3600) this week. If he misses, then a punt option with Jonnu Smith at $2800 opens up.
Denver Broncos (18.75/+5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (24.25/-5.5) [43]
It’s not easy to like the broncos on the road against an Indy defense that has adjusted their defensive game-plan to their opponent in each of the past few weeks and beat some good teams in the process. The Broncos are not a good offense and should be easily shut down here. One of the Denver running-backs may be able to get something going, but the way they’re used makes it hard to predict. With Sanders gone, there’s less for defenses to focus on in the passing game. Courtland Sutton ($5300) will get a lot of attention from Eberflus’ unit leaving guys like DaeSean Hamilton ($3300) and Noah Fant ($2900) to soak up underneath targets that go nowhere. It’s possible Hamilton could find some value here if they let him keep catching short passes and he racks up double-digit catches and clears the milestone bonus. His $3300 price makes him interesting for the volume he could see here.
The Colts offense has been cruising right along this year with Jacoby Brissett ($5600) at the wheel. This week looks like one in which he’ll have to look for options in the middle of the field. Chris Harris should shadow TY Hilton ($6100), potentially nullifying any chance of a big game by him. Parris Campbell ($3000) returns this week and was the #2 WR for a bit before getting hurt. Zach Pascal ($4300) may have seized that #2 role after last week’s performance though. I’m going to look toward the TEs, mainly Eric Ebron ($3400), this week if rostering any Colts. Marlon Mack ($6100) is the other guy I can see having a solid game here. The Broncos defense started out getting ripped by opposing RBs, then cleaned that up a few weeks ago and haven’t been allowing big games by enemy backs. The OL for the Colts is a difference-making unit and will test the Broncos recent success at stopping the run, as will Mack’s elusiveness (35 evaded tackles – 9th in NFL). This game could be a slow-paced run-fest (look at the plays per game for and against by both teams in the match-up chart), leaving most of the players in this game as riskier bets for high volume.
Carolina Panthers (18.25/+6) at San Francisco 49ers (24.25/-6) [42.5]
These two defenses rank #1 and #7 in the NFL for lowest passing yards per game. Carolina is #7 and has had outstanding play from James Bradberry and the safeties (one of whom is a former 49er). It’s hard to expect much from the Niners passing offense outside of Kittle, but facing this type of defense is a no-fly zone. The Niners offense as a whole spreads the wealth, not just among receivers, but they will also use 3 RBs during a game. The best plays from this game are going to be the 49ers DST ($3700) and the Panthers DST ($2400).
Oakland Raiders (22.5/+6.5) at Houston Texans (29.0/-6.5) [51.5]
The Raiders just traded one of their corners to Houston this week. Think he might have revenge on his mind? Does it matter? Probably not, and he might not even play much. Conley is only 2 points per game better in coverage against his receivers than Joseph and Johnson have been. Tyrell Williams ($5500) is in a good spot here against a team that forces their opponent to throw against them since they are so good at stopping the run. The secondary is bad, so Williams should be able to get loose. Darren Waller ($5900) doesn’t have a green light match-up on the chart, but he’s second in the league for reception by TEs (and he’s had his bye week). He plays in-line mostly, but they do flex him out into the slot an average of 10 times per game. The Texans have bad slot coverage so he could see a lot of production come from those snaps.
The Texans will also be forced to throw in this one, as the Raiders have become a stout run defense as the year has gone on. With Fuller down the top options are DeAndre Hopkins ($8100) – who is an elite option for the slate – and Kenny Stills ($4700). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Keke Coutee ($4100) with over 10 targets in this one either, which would make him a nice punt option. Being forced to pass should help Deshaun Watson’s ($7100) chances of having a big game increase, as he will use his legs, too. Watson/Hopkins is the most expensive stack on the slate, so grabbing Coutee at $4100 to save some salary makes sense. Running that back with Williams for $5500 is helpful and logical as well.
Cleveland Browns (17.25/+11.5) at New England Patriots (28.75/-11.5) [46]
Jarvis Landry ($4800) has faced the Patriots plenty during his career in Miami. Now he’s saying “we’re gonna win” which can be interpreted as saying he thinks the Browns will win this game on the road in Foxborough. For him to say that makes me think they instilled one helluva game-plan over their bye week. I’m not going to say they won’t win, but it’s highly unlikely. They would have to figure out what no one else has, and the win would be more indicative of the Browns playing good defense than it would be for them to win in a shootout game. If you’re playing a bunch of entries, it would make sense to get some Browns sprinkled into your player pool, as the field will mostly fade them. If we’re going to play anyone here it’s going to have to be Odell Beckham ($6500) since he is the most gifted player on the offense. Cleveland should have both of their starting corners back this week, so there is some interest in using the Browns DST ($2000) as a punt option this week.
Cleveland gets pulverized by strong running games which is what the Patriots excel at. Sony Michel ($5200) is coming off of a 3 TD game and has scored 20+ DK points in 2 of his last three games. He is also under-priced for this match-up. Had he not just smashed the Jets it may have been possible the field forgot how bad the Browns run defense is (Cleveland has allowed half of the #1 RBs they’ve faced to pile up 28+ DK points) since they didn’t see them last week, and looked past Michel. Now he’s going to be at the top of everyone’s value plays for this slate. James White ($5100) is going to get you 13 points most games, which makes him over-priced if he follows the pattern he’s established this year. With Greedy and Ward back the Browns secondary gets a boost and this is no easy match-up for any of the Pats receivers. Julian Edelman ($6900) ought to see his typical 10+ targets as long as the game remains competitive. The other receivers will be more of a crap-shoot. There’s Ben Watson ($3000) and his former employer narrative to look at here, but what’s more in his favor is the lack of practice participation form the other TEs on the roster. He saw 5 targets last week so if the corners shut down the outside guys, then we could see Watson have a solid outing.
Final Thoughts
After writing this article I got to playing around with some line-up construction. QB looks like it could be really spread out with no super-chalky plays jumping out – unless you’re spending up. There is plenty of value on this slate to build line-ups with 3 stud RBs in them. The key to value this week is with BaeSean and the Titans. Hamilton might end up being a chalky punt for a lot of people this week if people scroll down far enough to find him. Best of luck this week, and thanks for reading!
