Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate
Now halfway through the 2019 fantasy season, our study of the league’s most, and least efficient wide receivers is starting to take shape. With six or seven games already in the books, we have a fairly substantial amount of advanced data that tells us which pass-catchers are making the most of their opportunities.
True Catch Rate is FantasyData’s detailed measurement of wide receiver efficiency. By eliminating errant throws and uncatchable targets, True Catch Rate offers a truer measure of which wide receivers are coming down with the highest rate of catchable passes, and how we can use that data to identify value and potential fantasy football breakouts.
As we move into the second half of the season, here are the league’s best and worst pass-catchers via our weeklyTrue Catch Rate report.
The League’s Least Efficient Receivers
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGTS | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Chris Conley | JAX | 33 | 17 | 326 | 1 | 4.54 | 1.02 | 60.7 % | 10 | 3 | 30.0 % | 19.2 | 9.9 | 1.77 | 3 | 9.1 % |
| 2 | John Ross | CIN | 32 | 16 | 328 | 3 | 4.23 | 1.66 | 64.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 20.5 | 10.2 | 2.54 | 5 | 15.6 % |
| 3 | Golden Tate | NYG | 26 | 15 | 195 | 1 | 3.74 | 0.69 | 65.2 % | 13 | 5 | 38.5 % | 13 | 7.5 | 2.14 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 4 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 38 | 18 | 284 | 3 | 5.27 | 1.42 | 66.7 % | 11 | 4 | 36.4 % | 15.8 | 7.5 | 1.46 | 3 | 7.9 % |
| 5 | D.J. Metcalf | SEA | 40 | 20 | 389 | 2 | 4.56 | 1.12 | 69.0 % | 10 | 6 | 60.0 % | 19.4 | 9.7 | 2.11 | 2 | 5.0 % |
| 6 | Kenny Golladay | DET | 47 | 25 | 385 | 4 | 4.66 | 1.09 | 69.4 % | 11 | 5 | 45.5 % | 15.4 | 8.2 | 1.93 | 2 | 4.3 % |
| 7 | Odell Beckham | CLE | 54 | 29 | 436 | 1 | 3.72 | 2.08 | 70.7 % | 12 | 5 | 41.7 % | 15 | 8.1 | 2.36 | 5 | 9.3 % |
| 8 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 54 | 32 | 383 | 1 | 4.13 | 1.53 | 72.7 % | 11 | 2 | 18.2 % | 12 | 7.1 | 1.92 | 4 | 7.4 % |
| 9 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 22 | 14 | 217 | 1 | 3.6 | 1.11 | 73.7 % | 5 | 1 | 20.0 % | 15.5 | 9.9 | 1.84 | 2 | 9.1 % |
| 10 | Demarcus Robinson | KC | 36 | 20 | 312 | 3 | 3.57 | 1.81 | 74.1 % | 4 | 3 | 75.0 % | 15.6 | 8.7 | 1.46 | 4 | 11.1 % |
| 10 | Josh Gordon | NE | 36 | 20 | 287 | 1 | 3.74 | 2.39 | 74.1 % | 9 | 4 | 44.4 % | 14.3 | 8 | 1.54 | 2 | 5.6 % |
Despite a lucrative matchup against a shaky Cincinnati secondary, Chris Conley only corraled 3-of-8 targets and suffered his third drop of the seaon in a decent, if underwhelming Week 7 showing. Conley managed to produce 83 yards on his three grabs, but nontheless saw his True Catch Rate score dip down to 60.7%, making him the least-efficient wideout at the halfway point. Teammate Dede Westbrook (72.7% TCR) isn’t much better, particularly in contested-catch situations, where he’s only come down with two out of 11 targets. While D.J. Chark (16th) has fared well with Gardner Minshew under center, the rest of the Jaguars’ receiving corps is struggling.
Quarterback woes have also been an issue for Golden Tate, who has only come down with 57.6% of his 16 targets in three games. Darius Slayton (63.6% catch rate) is also being limited by Daniel Jones’s growing pains, but Tate is averaging 8.7 targets per game without a drop. With Sterling Shepard expected to miss at least one more week, Tate’s high-volume role makes him a solid weekly WR3, despite the lack of efficiency.
DeVante Parker has quietly scored in three straight games and just enjoyed his best target (10) and reception (5) numbers of the season with the return of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starting lineup. Surprisingly, Parker leads Miami’s entire offense with 336 snaps (87.2%) and improve his True Catch Rate score by over 7% with one 5/55/1 outing in Buffalo. With Miami routinely a double-digit underdog, Parker is a sneaky bet to deliver WR3 numbers in the second half of the season.
Kenny Golladay had his worst outing of the season, catching only one pass for 21 yards. After scoring four touchdowns in Detroit’s first four games, Golladay has now gone scoreless in consecutive contests. Perhaps relief will come in the form of a Week 8 home date with a New York Giants secondary that has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far in 2019.
After a useful two-week run in September, Demarcus Robinson has been all but worthless in fantasy lineups. Robinson hasn’t topped 35 yards since Week 3 and has been plagued by drops and lack of volume. Now that QB Patrick Mahomes is sidelined indefinitely, Robinson can be safely dropped from all but the deepest fantasy rosters.
Josh Gordon‘s nasty-looking knee injury suffered in Week 6 eventually will keep him out of New England’s lineup for the remainder of the season, as evidenced by the team’s trade for Mohamed Sanu. Even when healthy, Gordon hasn’t been all that impressive for the Patriots, hauling in just 20-of-27 catchable targets and failing to produce a touchdown since the season opener. It has now been a full year since Gordon has topped triple-digit receiving yards and he has only scored one TD in his past eight contests with New England. He never really lived up to the hype with the Patriots and it’s possible we’ve seen his final NFL action.
True Catch Rate Leaders
| PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% | |
| 1 | Trey Quinn | WAS | 35 | 22 | 162 | 1 | 3.99 | 1.99 | 95.7 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.04 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 2 | Chris Godwin | TB | 54 | 43 | 662 | 6 | 4.61 | 1.27 | 95.6 % | 12 | 9 | 75.0 % | 15.4 | 12.3 | 3.28 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 3 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 77 | 51 | 573 | 4 | 4.1 | 1.52 | 94.4 % | 6 | 2 | 33.3 % | 11.2 | 7.4 | 2.32 | 3 | 3.9 % |
| 4 | Michael Thomas | NO | 78 | 62 | 763 | 3 | 4.3 | 1.42 | 93.9 % | 11 | 9 | 81.8 % | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.36 | 2 | 2.6 % |
| 5 | Kenny Stills | HOU | 19 | 15 | 293 | 1 | 3.19 | 1.24 | 93.8 % | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 19.5 | 15.4 | 3.71 | 1 | 5.3 % |
| 6 | Adam Humphries | TEN | 31 | 25 | 229 | 0 | 3.56 | 1.29 | 92.6 % | 2 | 1 | 50.0 % | 9.2 | 7.4 | 1.86 | 2 | 6.5 % |
| 7 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 45 | 32 | 298 | 0 | 4.19 | 1.28 | 91.4 % | 4 | 3 | 75.0 % | 9.3 | 6.6 | 1.83 | 1 | 2.2 % |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | SF | 43 | 30 | 367 | 2 | 4.65 | 1.77 | 90.9 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 12.2 | 8.5 | 1.94 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 9 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 68 | 49 | 508 | 3 | 4.09 | 1.34 | 90.7 % | 13 | 6 | 46.2 % | 10.4 | 7.5 | 2.25 | 4 | 5.9 % |
| 10 |
Adam Thielen |
MIN | 40 | 27 | 391 | 6 | 4.61 | 1.31 | 90.0 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 14.5 | 9.8 | 2.66 | 0 | 0.0 % |
Advanced efficiency metrics often tell really interesting stories, but every once in awhile a puzzling entry will make you re-evaluate what you’re looking at. Trey Quinn has flashed excellent hands by corralling 22-of-23 catchable targets but has routinely been hampered by sub-optimal quarterback play and an awful situation in Washington. Quinn’s hand warrant applause but he ranks 79th out of 83 qualifing wideouts with a paltry 1.04 yards per route run and has made zero downfield impact for the bumbling Redskins. He’s a stat filler with very limited upside.
Chris Godwin remains a better testament to what information we can retrieve out of True Catch Rate. Godwin slipped to second overall after Tampa enjoyed their Week 7 bye, but Godwin remains the league-leader in fantasy points per game and touchdown grabs. As hot as Godwin has been, he’ll face a pair of tough matchups starting in Week 8 at Tennessee and then a Week 9 cross-country trip to Seattle.
Cooper Kupp had a dream matchup in Week 7 versus Atlanta but had an overall disappointing outing. Sure, he reeled in 6-of-8 targets for 50 yards and improved his TCR score, but Kupp failed to top triple-digits or score for the second consecutive week after surpassing those marks in each of the previous four Rams’ contests. This week, the Rams have another excellent spot against the Bengals, but Cincinnati has been surprisingly adept against fantasy wideouts. Also, with this game being an early kick across the pond, we can expect the unexpected, here.
Our True Catch Rate overall leader a couple of weeks ago, Kenny Stills reappears as a top-5 option after racking up 105 receiving yards in Houston’s loss at Indianapolis. Stills also had his first drop of the season in that game, which erased his perfect TCR score. Still, Stills should be in an excellent position to emerge as a weekly WR2/3 in the wake of another lengthy hamstring-related absence for Will Fuller.
Maybe the 49ers were looking at True Catch Rate when they decided to pull the trigger on a trade to land 32-year-old veteran wideout Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. San Francisco has not managed to get any consistency out of their young receiving corps, while Sanders has thrived in a poor Denver offense. Sanders, who has caught 30-of-33 catchable targets with zero drops, should take over No. 1 wide receiver duties for Kyle Shanahan as soon as this week at home versus the Panthers.
DeAndre Hopkins posted his first 100-yard outing and touchdown reception since Week 1. Last week was the second consecutive outing in which Hopkins netted nine grabs on 12 targets, so he’s been trending in the right direction after a frustrating month. In Week 8, the Texans host an Oakland Raiders secondary that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers so far in 2019.
Adam Thielen got injured making his only grab of the afternoon during Minnesota’s victory in Detroit. Thielen injured his hamstring diving to haul in the TD in the back of the end-zone and will not suit up in Week 8 as the Vikings have a short rest week hosting Washington on Thursday Night Football. Olabisi Johnson will replace Thielen in Minnesota’s starting lineup and makes a solid desperation fantasy fill-in against a bottom-10 Washington secondary.
