27 Statistical Observations From NFL Sunday

By Eric Moody | October 14, 2019

The following are 27 statistical observations from Sunday’s slate of NFL games. It’s hard to stay up to date on everything that’s happening, so hopefully, I can bring you up to speed on some of the fantasy football action you missed. 

Denver Broncos 16, Tennesse Titans 0

The Broncos (2-4) defense annihilated the Titans (2-4) in a shutout victory. Denver’s defense finished with seven sacks and three interceptions. The Broncos defense shut down Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota which resulted in him being benched for Ryan Tannehill. This was Denver’s first shutout in two seasons. The Broncos defense has not allowed a touchdown in nine quarters. This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and the Chiefs will be an intriguing one.

Mariota completed seven of 18 passes for 63 yards and two interceptions. He also had two rushing attempts for four yards and took three sacks. Tannehill didn’t do much better. He completed 13 of 16 passes for 144 yards and an interception with one rushing attempt for six yards. He took four of the seven sacks from the Broncos defense. It would be surprising to see the Titans move forward with Mariota under center. Whoever is under center for the Titans is nothing more than a low-end QB2. Adam Humphries led the Titans with 47 receiving yards. Derrick Henry rushed for 28 yards on 15 carries. He finished with one reception for five yards. Henry’s success or failure in the Titans offense will be dictated by the game flow. 

Flacco completed 18 of 28 passes for 177 yards and an interception. He can also be viewed as a low-end QB2. Courtland Sutton caught four of eight targets for 76 yards. Noah Fant caught two of three targets for 16 receiving yards. Emmanuel Sanders left the game with a knee injury. He finished with zero receptions on three targets. DaeSean Hamilton caught all two of his targets for 25 receiving yards. The timeshare in the Broncos backfield continued against the Titans. Phillip Lindsay finished with 70 yards and a touchdown on 15 rushing attempts. He also caught two of three targets for five yards. Royce Freeman turned 11 rushing attempts into 34 yards. He was more productive as a receiver. Freeman caught all five targets for 42 receiving yards. Both Broncos running backs continue to be on the RB3 radar. 

Statistical Observations

  • This was the first time the Broncos had seven sacks and three interceptions in a game since September 16, 1984, according to ESPN Stats and Info.
  • Corey Davis finished with 71 air yards. He leads the Titans receivers on the season with 294. 
  • Courtland Sutton led the Broncos with 135 air yards.

Arizona Cardinals 34, Atlanta Falcons 33

Matt Bryant’s missed extra point hands the Cardinals (2-3-1) another win as the Falcons (1-5) suffered another gut-wrenching loss. Atlanta came back from a 17 point deficit, but was unable to get the win. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 36 passes for 356 yards and four touchdowns. He is averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game and remains a QB1.

Julio Jones caught eight of nine targets for 108 receiving yards and is averaging 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game. He continues to be a WR1 and top-five at the position every week. Calvin Ridley caught four of six targets for 48 yards and one touchdown. He is an upside WR3 while Mohamed Sanu is a low-end WR3. He caught three of four targets for 29 receiving yards. Ridley and Jones continue to dominate the Falcons’ air yards. The statistical trend of playing tight ends against the Cardinals continues. Hooper caught eight of eight targets for 117 receiving yards and one touchdown. Devonta Freeman accumulated 88 rushing yards on 19 attempts. He also had two receiving touchdowns. Freeman has been inconsistent all season. This game provides you with an excellent sell high opportunity. If you decide to hold onto Freeman moving forward then treat him as an RB2. 

Murray continues his ascent into QB1 status. He completed 27 of 37 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Murray also ran for 32 rushing yards. Larry Fitzgerald caught six of eight targets for 69 receiving yards. He can continue to be viewed as a WR2. David Johnson was dealing with a back injury throughout the week and rewarded fantasy players who didn’t panic. He rushed 12 times for 34 yards and one touchdown. Johnson caught six of eight targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. He’s a weekly RB1. 

Statistical Observations

  • Murray is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have 20 or more completions in each of his first six career games according to NFL Research. 
  • Ryan became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 80 or more percent of his passes for over 300 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions and lose according to Jeff Asher and Pro Football Reference. 
  • The only Falcons player with more air yards than Hooper (88) was Jones (98).
  • This was Jones’ 52nd career game with 100 receiving yards according to Pro Football Reference. He is currently ranked fourth and only trails Jerry (76), Randy Moss (64), and Marvin Harrison (59). 

San Francisco 49ers 20, Los Angeles Rams 7

The 49ers (5-0) remain undefeated with win over a sinking Rams (3-3) team. San Francisco’s defense gave up 65 yards and a touchdown on their opening drive. After that, the Rams offense was terminated. Jimmy Garoppolo completed 24 of 33 passes for 243 yards and one interception. The 49ers continue to lean heavily on their running game and defense. Garoppolo is a solid QB2 with upside. His leading receiver was tight end George Kittle. He caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards. Matt Breida rushed 13 times for 36 yards while Tevin Coleman scored a rushing touchdown while rushing 18 times for 45 yards. Coleman continues to be the 49ers running back to roster in fantasy. This was his second consecutive week with a touchdown. 

Jared Goff completed 13 of 24 passes for 78 yards. This was a career-low for him and none of the Rams pass catchers were productive. Malcolm Brown who started in place of an injured Todd Gurley was also unproductive. He rushed 11 times for 40 yards. 

Statistical Observations

  • Jimmy Garoppolo improves to 13-2 in his career as a starter. He’s just the 9th quarterback in NFL history to win 13 of his first 15 career starts according to. The 49ers are 5-0 for the first time since 1990 (Source: ESPN Stats and Info). 

Baltimore Ravens 23, Cincinnati Bengals 17

Lamar Jackson used his passing and rushing ability to help the Ravens (4-2) outlast the winless Bengals (0-6). He completed 21 of 33 passes for 236 yards. Jackson also had 152 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 rushing attempts. Mark Andrews and not Willie Snead benefitted from Marquise Brown’s absence. He caught six of eight passes for 99 yards. Both remain a QB1 and TE1 at their respective positions. Mark Ingram’s upside was limited with Jackson running free. He finished with 13 rushing attempts for 52 yards and a touchdown. Ingram also had two receptions for 22 yards. 

The Bengals offense was horrendous. Andy Dalton completed 21 of 39 passes for 235 yards and one interception. Auden Tate caught five of 12 targets for 91 yards. He was the only bright spot in a dismal afternoon for the Bengals. Tate has accumulated 18 targets over the last two games. He remains a solid WR3 while John Ross and A.J. Green are out. Tyler Boyd caught three of seven targets for 10 yards. He’s still on the WR2 radar. Joe Mixon rushed eight times for 10 yards. He also caught two of three targets for 29 yards. Mixon’s fantasy value continues to plummet. He’s more of an RB3 at this point. 

Statistical Observations

  • Jackson now has three career games with 100 or more rushing yards. This is tied with Billy Kilmer for most by a quarterback in his first two seasons since 1950 according to Pro Football Reference. 
  • Tate led the Bengals with 146 air yards. 

New Orleans 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 6

Teddy Bridgewater.jpgTeddy Bridgewater remains unbeaten as the Saints defense lock down Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars. This was Uncle Rico’s worst game of the season. Minshew completed 14 of 29 passes for 163 yards and an interception. He was sacked twice and looked uncomfortable in the pocket. D.J. Chark caught three of seven targets for 43 receiving yards against high-end cornerback Marshon Lattimore. He’s still a weekly WR2. This game could provide you a buy-low opportunity for Chark with an uninformed player. Dede Westbrook caught three of eight targets for 53 receiving yards and is no more than a WR3. Leonard Fournette continues to be a volume-based RB1. He accumulated 72 yards on 20 rushing attempts while caught all six targets for 46 yards.

Teddy Bridgewater completed 24 of 36 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown. Michael Thomas caught eight of 12 targets for 89 receiving yards. Alvin Kamara was not himself after injuring his ankle at practice during the week. He accumulated 31 rushing yards on 11 rushing attempts. Kamara caught seven of eight targets for 35 receiving yards. This provided Latavius Murray an opportunity to take on more touches. He turned eight rushing attempts into 44 yards and finished with three receptions for 35 receiving yards. Jared Cook caught all three of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Bridgewater and the Saints offense have a difficult matchup in Week 7 on the road against the Bears. 

Statistical Observations

  • Ted Ginn led the Saints with 119 air yards. 
  • D.J. Chark led the Jaguars with 89 air yards. 

Minnesota Vikings 38, Philadelphia Eagles 20

Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs destroyed the Eagles (3-3) secondary as the Vikings advanced to 4-2. Last week Minnesota’s passing offense revolved around Adam Thielen. This week the focus shifted to Stefon Diggs. Cousins completed 22 of 29 passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns. He took full advantage of an Eagles secondary missing cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Avonte Maddox. Thielen caught six of eight targets for 57 yards and one touchdown. Diggs, on the other hand, caught seven of 11 targets for 167 yards and three touchdowns.

Both Vikings receivers are on the WR2 radar. Dalvin Cook rushed 16 times for 41 yards and one touchdown. He caught both of his targets for 13 yards. Cook is averaging 23 PPR fantasy points per game and remains an RB1. 

Carson Wentz completed 26 of 40 passes for 306 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He’s a QB1. Alshon Jeffery caught 10 of 12 targets for 76 yards and one touchdown. He continues to be a touchdown-dependent WR2. Zach Ertz caught four of nine targets for 54 receiving yards. Miles Sanders only rushed three times for six yards. He thrived as a receiver catching all three of his targets for 86 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Howard rushed 13 times for 49 yards. Could this be the changing of the guard in the Eagles committee? Howard will still dominant the rushing attempts, but this game provided you a glimpse of low his fantasy floor could be without scoring a touchdown. 

Statistical Observations

  • Diggs is the fourth Vikings player with 150 or more receiving yards and three or more receiving touchdowns in a game according to NFL Research. 
  • Diggs accumulated 250 air yards. This leads all wide receivers heading into Monday Night Football. 
  • Jeffery led the Eagles with 12 targets and finished with an aDOT or average depth of target of 5.9.

Washington Redskins 17, Miami Dolphins 16

Terry McLaurin helped to propel the Redskins (1-5) to their first win of the 2019 season. The game ended on a failed two-point conversion by the Dolphins (0-5). McLaurin caught four of seven targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins missed cornerback Xavien Howard as the Redskins No. 1 receiver burned them all over the football field. It helped that Washington turned back to quarterback Case Keenum, but McLaurin’s targets were down in interim head coach Bill Callahan run-heavy offense. He’ll be more of a WR3 against the 49ers next week. Keenum completed 13 of 25 passes for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Adrian Peterson rushed 23 times for 118 yards. He also had two catches for 18 yards. Peterson set a season-high in touches in this game. If this trend continues he’s more of a volume-based RB2. 

Josh Rosen was benched in the fourth quarter and replaced with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He only had 85 passing yards and two interceptions. Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, completed 12 of 18 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown. The running backs accounting for a high percentage of the receiving yards. Kenyan Drake rushed 10 times for 40 yards and caught six of nine targets for 30 yards. Kalen Ballage had three carries for seven yards and a touchdown. Mark Walton had six carries for 32 yards and caught five of six targets for 43 yards. 

Statistical Observations

  • McLaurin is now the fifth rookie wide receiver with five or more receiving touchdowns through Week 6 in the Super Bowl era according to NFL Research. Calvin Ridley is the only player to do this century. 
  • McLaurin led the Redskin in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards. 
  • This was Peterson’s 56th 100-yard game of his career. 

Houston Texans 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24

Deshaun Watson (4-2) and Carlos Hyde (4-2) led the Texans to a win over the Chiefs. Yes, you read that correctly. The Texans had something to prove on the road on the Chiefs’ home field. Deshaun Watson showed everyone why he should be taken seriously as a Most Valuable Player candidate. He completed 30 of 42 passes for 280 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Watson also added on 42 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on 10 attempts. Carlos Hyde bounced back from a fumble on the Texans’ opening drive. He rushed 26 times for 116 yards a touchdown. Duke Johnson didn’t get involved until the Texans were trailing. He rushed five times for 34 yards and caught two of four targets for 20 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Tight end Darren Fells caught six of seven targets for 69 yards. Jordan Akins caught three of his targets for 39 receiving yards as the Texans were in comeback mode. Will Fuller was also close to another historic game. He caught five of nine targets for 44 yards. Fuller’s three drops could have led to three long touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins caught nine of 12 targets for 55 yards. He continues to disappoint fantasy players. Did you know this was Hopkins’ fifth consecutive game with 100 or less receiving yards? 

Patrick Mahomes completed 19 of 35 passes for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. His fantasy production continues to be limited by an ankle injury. Tyreek Hill caught five of 10 targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns. He looked healthy and is back on the WR1 radar. Travis Kelce caught four of six targets for 58 yards and nearly had a touchdown. He remains a TE1 as fantasy players patiently await for another monster game. Mecole Hardman caught all four of his targets for 45 yards. The Chiefs backfield continues to operate as a frustrating committee. LeSean McCoy led the team with eight rushing attempts for 44 yards. Darrel Williams had one reception for 52 yards. Damien Williams had one rushing attempt for six yards and scored a receiving touchdown on his only target. All three of the Chiefs running backs can be viewed as RB3s. 

Statistical Observations

  • Will Fuller led the Texans with 158 air yards. 
  • Mahomes 46-yard touchdown pass to Hill was his first opening quarter touchdown pass since Week 1 according to NFL Research. The last time Hill was active. 

Seattle Seahawks 32, Cleveland Browns 28

Russell Wilson’s efficient play continues as he led the Seahawks (5-1) to win over the Browns (2-4) on the road. It felt like a home game for Seattle as they looked very comfortable. Wilson completed 23 of 33 passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 32 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. Wilson remains an elite QB1. Tyler Lockett caught all five targets for 75 yards. He hasn’t caught more than five passes or reached 100 receiving yards since Week 3. Lockett remains a WR2 and an excellent buy-low candidate. D.K. Metcalf caught four of five targets for 69 receiving yards. He’s more of a WR3 who provides you with a low floor and a high ceiling. Jaron Brown had a monopoly on the receiving touchdowns. He caught three of five targets for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Will Dissly is believed to have torn his left Achilles’ tendon. He was in the midst of a breakout season. Luke Wilson will be the next man up at the tight end position for the Seahawks. Chris Carson continues to reward fantasy players who stuck with him. He rushed 24 times for 124 yards and a touchdown. Carson also had four receptions for 35 receiving yards. He has exceeded 100 yards and averaged 27 touches per game over the last three. 

Baker Mayfield continues to take steps backward and not forward. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 249 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. Mayfield also had four rushing attempts for 35 yards and a touchdown. Odell Beckham has his first 100-yard game since Week 2. He caught six of 11 targets for 101 yards. Beckham is still on the WR1 radar, but Mayfield’s erratic play and inaccuracy limit his upside. Ricky Seals-Jones caught three of six targets for 47 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’s is taking advantage of the void left behind by David Njoku. Seals-Jones can be viewed as an upside TE2. The real star of the Browns offense was Nick Chubb. He rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Chubb also added five receptions for 17 additional yards. He’s a high-end RB1 that the Browns’ offense should continue to lean heavily on as they look to get back on track. 

Statistical Observations

  • With a 117.6 passer rating against the Browns, Russell Wilson has a 100 or greater passer rating in all six games this season according to NFL Research. The only two players with more such games to start a season in the Super Bowl era were Tom Brady (8) in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers (12) in 2011. Both won the NFL Most Valuable Player award that season. 
  • None of the Seahawks receivers accumulated 100 or more air yards. 
  • The only Browns player with more air yards than Seals-Jones (74) was Beckham (124). 

Carolina Panthers 37, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

Christian McCaffrey continues to be the engine that moves the Panthers (4-2) past the Buccaneers (2-4) for another win. He had 22 carries for 31 yards and a touchdown and caught four of five targets for 26 yards and a second touchdown. McCaffrey remains an RB1. This was only the second game he was held below 100 total yards this season. The bye week has come at a perfect time for McCaffrey considering the opportunity share he’s had this season. 

Jameis Winston was horrific against the Buccaneers. He completed 30 of 54 passes for 400 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions. Winston took seven sacks and lost a fumble. He completly imploded after playing very good football over the last four games. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act continues for Winston. He’s someone to avoid when the Buccaneers come out of the bye in Week 8 to face the Titans. 

Chris Godwin had another monster game. He caught 10 of 12 targets for 151 yards. Were you aware Godwin’s averaged 120 or more yards in four of the last five games? He’s a WR1 and will continue to be ranked in the top-six at the wide receiver position every week once the Buccaneers return from the bye week. 

Statistical Observations

  • McCaffrey is the first player in Panthers history with one rushing and receiving touchdown in back to back games according to NFL Research. Did you know he’s the first player in the NFL with consecutive games with one rushing and one receiving touchdown since Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb in November 2018? 

New York Jets 24, Dallas Cowboys 22

The Jets offense got back on track with the return of Sam Darnold. He threw two touchdowns as the Jets (1-4) defeated the Cowboys (3-3) for their first win. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He breathed life in the Jets offense and completed a beautiful 92-yard touchdown pass to Robby Anderson who caught five of nine targets for 125 yards and one touchdown. Darnold can be viewed as an upside QB2 and Anderson an upside WR3, but the dynamic duo has a difficult matchup against the Patriots defense this week. 

Ezekiel Elliott was one of the only bright spots in this game for the Cowboys. He rushed 28 times for 105 yards and one touchdown. Elliott also had five receptions for 47 receiving yards. He has accumulated 71 touches in the Cowboys last three games. 

Statistical Observations

  • This was Sam Darnold’s third career game with a passer rating of a 100.0+ passer rating, nine or more yards per attempts, and two or more passing touchdowns on at least 30 pass attempts according to Pro Football Reference. The only quarterbacks to do that three or more times within their first 16 starts are Mahomes, Kurt Warner, and Tony Romo. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Los Angeles Chargers 17

Devlin Hodges won his first career NFL start by leaning heavily on James Conner in the Steelers (2-4) win over the Chargers (2-4). He completed 15 of 20 passes for 132 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Conner rushed 16 times for 41 yards and a touchdown. He added seven receptions for 78 additional yards and a receiving touchdown. Conner missed all of the fourth quarter with a quad injury. Benny Snell filled the void by rushing 17 times for 75 yards. He also had one reception for 14 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster only caught one of four targets for seven yards. 

Hunter Henry caught eight of nine targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He moved around very well in his first game back from injury. Those who held on to Henry or traded for him were very happy with the results from this game.

Mike Williams caught five of nine targets for 72 yards. Keenan Allen caught two of six targets for 33 yards. This was the third game in a row he has not surpassed 50 receiving yards. Allen is an intriguing buy-low candidate and should continue to be viewed as a WR1. The running game with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler was shut down. Philip Rivers completed 26 of 44 passes for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

Statistical Observations

  • Henry’s performance was a career-high in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. 
  • Mike Williams led the Chargers with 192 air yards. Be on the lookout for him to go boom in the very near future. 

Conclusion

The Packers and the Lions will face off against each other on Monday Night Football. Be on the lookout for the Week 7 edition of Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, my Week 7 rankings, and an analysis of some of our Advanced Metrics. If you have questions don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium. 

Eric Moody
Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee
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