Fantasy Football TE Sleepers
If you had to pick a position in fantasy football that is the hardest to draft for, it’s likely a tight end. The same goes for correctly predicting a breakout and getting reliable points. The tight-end world is known as ruthless and devoid of reliable talent outside of the top 5-7 guys that you have to often draft early if you have any hopes of getting. That’s why this article exists. It’s to help you find some sleepers at tight end that just might break out this year and become TE1s. At the very least, all three of these guys should play above their Average Draft Position (ADP) and give you a steady stream of points. This article won’t have any players taken above the ADP of 10. This was to ensure that no players like Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert were selected. This article is focused on the late rounds for those that want to wait on a tight end or perhaps take a second tight end. Waiting on a tight end outside of the Kelce/Andrews tier can often be more beneficial than taking a tight end above ADP and in the early rounds. All scoring will be in PPR and any projections or stats come via FantasyData.
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Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Cole Kmet isn’t just a favorite sleeper, he’s the most likely to break out this year in fantasy football and in the NFL. Kmet the Frog is entering his third NFL season, a year that often has tight ends breaking out. He’s now the No.2 option on the team behind only star wide receiver Darnell Mooney. With a new coaching staff in place, there’s faith that Kmet will finally be used. Jimmy Graham was blocking his progression, but he’s gone. The Bears’ wide receiver depth chart leaves a lot to be desired. It’s known that a young quarterback’s best friend is often his tight end. This is true for that Justin Fields. The Bears spent a first-round pick on Fields and will be determined to find out if he can make it in the NFL. Cole has made progress in developing as a legitimate receiving option in both of his years in the NFL so far. From 2020 to 2021, Cole more than doubled his targets, receptions, yards, games started, and fantasy points.
It was an encouraging year for Kmet and his truthers. He started all 17 games and had 60 receptions for 612 yards on 93 targets. Cole is in line to get over 100 targets, a rarity in the tight end world of the NFL. He will finish in the top 12 of PPR scoring this year. FantasyData projections have him getting 94 targets, 61 catches, 633 yards, 4 touchdowns, and averaging 8.6 PPR points per game. I think this is what will happen. It’s too pessimistic. He will get over 100 targets and reach 9+PPR ppg. To get him at an ADP of 133.6 according to FantasyData is insane. He will finish much higher than in that area of ADP. He could have a better season than Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Dawson Knox, and Pat Freiermuth, all of whom are going higher than him. Be smart and wait on a tight end like Cole Kmet.
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
Irv Smith missed last year due to a torn meniscus, but he’s back healthy and performing. In a more pass-friendly offense under new head coach Kevin O’Connell, expect a career year out of the third-year tight end (technically fourth, but a lost year to injury doesn’t count as your third-playing year if you didn’t step on the field once). That’s right, Irv is entering that prove-it year for tight ends. This is the year they either prove they are NFL-caliber starting tight ends or get bumped to the backup realm. Irv Smith is a terrific backup tight end to the draft. He will give you TE1 weeks while being a reliable tight-end handcuff. If your No.1 tight end gets hurt, then you can safely plug Smith in. He won’t lose you weeks. That’s more valuable than a waiver wire tight end. Over the two healthy years of Irv’s career, he has started 14 games, recorded 90 targets, 66 receptions, and 676 yards for 7 touchdowns. That production came with Kyle Rudolph on the team. With him gone, I expect Irv to get a healthy heaping of targets and touchdowns.
Fantasy Data projects Irv to get 75 targets, 53 receptions, 561 yards, and 5 touchdowns. I think that’s pretty accurate. Irv will contend for a late-TE1 finish but likely winds up as a high-end TE2. Getting that production for your bye weeks or any injuries at an ADP of 150.7 and the No.19 tight end drafted is an insane steal. No way he should be drafted after the likes of Hayden Hurst, Cameron Brate, Mo Alie-Cox, or Robert Tonyan. He will finish way better than each of those guys. Take the steal and win the league.
Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans
Brevin Jordan is a deep sleeper. He’s extremely deep. The reasoning behind saying his name is that he has a chance to break out this year as the No.2 option on the Texans’ passing offense. Jordan is a rising tight end that enters his second year in the NFL. In his rookie year, he only played in 9 games due to injury, but really caught attention for how he was doing in Weeks 12-16. From those weeks, he averaged just over 9 ppg in PPR scoring. That’s impressive. It gives a lot of cause to the belief that he could ascend to a higher tier of tight ends even with Davis Mills at quarterback. With the depressing news that John Metchie will miss his rookie year, this allows Brevin to move into a tie for the No.2 role on the offense with Nico Collins. Brandin Cooks will get his share. Yet, Jordan could become a reliable red zone presence for a young QB like Mills. If Mills grows more, then it’s not out of the realm to expect Brevin to finish the top-20 of tight ends. It’s likely he does finish in the WR2 tier this year. Jordan has the talent. Last year, he had 28 targets, and caught 20 of them for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns. If you were to extrapolate that over a whole season instead of 9 games, Jordan would’ve finished with 38 receptions, 53 targets, 336 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Those are really good numbers for a rookie tight end.
I see him beating those numbers this year. Fantasy Data has him projected for 61 targets, 41 receptions, 421 yards, and 3 touchdowns. I think the numbers are nearly right except it’s far too low on the touchdowns. I believe he gets at least 5. That’s what will vault him into the TE2 realm. He’s an ideal backup tight end that can cover your bye weeks or any injury issues. He has blow-up potential if he puts up a Hunter Henry-like year in the red zone. To get him off waivers right now is a massive steal. He’s going at an ADP of 313. I’d take him in the last round of the draft for sure. Why not? How often can you get a reliable contributor in the last round or two of your draft? Not often. Go get some Brevin Jordan in your life. If he fails, he cost you literally nothing. If he booms, well I expect your letter in my mailbox. Just kidding, don’t send me letters. Do draft Jordan though.
