Fantasy Football Busts 2022
It’s drafting season in fantasy football. There are many picks to make. This fills many with fears that they will select the wrong player or that the player they take will bust. Busts in fantasy football are players that fail to meet their average draft position or ADP at the end of the season. Say that a player is selected 14th overall out of all the wide receivers taken. That player finishes the season as the 26th highest scoring wide receiver. That player would be a bust. If you avoided that player in the draft then you got lucky. Or you read an article like this one that tells you the players to watch for when comes draft time. This isn’t to say these players are awful. They just are not likely to meet their ADP compared to other players you could take after them. All scoring referenced is PPR and all ADP data comes straight from the best ADP and fantasy football projections out there, Fantasy Data. Be sure to subscribe so you can take full advantage of all the fun tools we have to offer to help you win another championship this fantasy football season.
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Mac Jones, Quarterback, New England Patriots
This is not an indictment of Mac Jones’ ability as a quarterback. I personally believe in the talent and think that he will grow into a great NFL player. It’s more the fact the Patriots aren’t hiding their beliefs in being a dominant rushing team. The Patriots have Damien Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson, and drafted Pierre Strong to go with their multitude of other running backs. Combine that with Josh McDaniels leaving New England as their offensive coordinator and the lack of impact talent at wide receiver and you’ll see the picture. No one thinks that the Patriots have a beefed-up wide receiver with Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, rookie deep threat Tyquan Thornton, and Nelson Agholor. Mac does have Hunter Henry to throw to and Jonnu Smith since he counts. I just am not sure Mac Jones will get many touchdown opportunities or passing in general. That vibes with Data’s projections for him to finish as the QB23 on the season. We foresee him having 25 touchdowns with 3,892 yards. His limited rushing ability drives him further down the projections list. He won’t be diving for touchdowns with all those running backs. Yet, he’s being drafted as the QB21 on the season. If, and it’s a big IF, he hits those projections, he’s maybe a top-24 quarterback. That just is far too risky when you have guys like Trevor Lawrence and Ryan Tannehill below him who have much higher rushing ability.
Antonio Gibson, Running Back, Washington Commanders
There seems to be nothing but bad news lately for Antonio Gibson and the many that believe in his talent, myself included. Not only did the Commanders re-sign JD McKissic, but they drafted Brian Robinson too. That’s a messy backfield to sort out. Lately, Gibson struggled in the first preseason game by fumbling his second touch. This immediately sent him to the bench while Brob came in. Now, it’s been reported that Washington and coach Ron Rivera want Gibson to be not only more consistent but less indecisive. Oftentimes for running backs, if they start to change directions too much, it’s easier for the ball to come out. The ones that take one step and then blast off have a much stronger grip on the ball. Gibby had a fine season last year, rushing for over 1,000 yards and nearly reaching 300 receiving yards. He just didn’t get many touchdowns with only 7 combined ones. With this increased uncertainty and the larger committee running back room, Gibson’s price is just too much for what you will get. He’s being taken as the RB21 and at pick 42. That’s so expensive. There’s no guarantee he reaches FantasyData’s projections of 895 yards, 5 combined touchdowns, and only 32 receptions. I’ll be honest, I doubt he reaches those markers if the Commanders let Wentz run/throw like he likes to. There are many other running backs I’d prefer at later ADPs like Travis Etienne, AJ Dillon, or Tony Pollard to name a few. Be careful as Gibson could very easily bust this year.
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Rashaad Penny, Running Back, Seattle Seahawks
The inherent risk to drafting Penny is beyond simple. Some people don’t believe in the term “injury prone”, but if there was a picture of a player next to that word in the dictionary, it’d have Penny’s picture. Rashaad Penny has missed 28 of the 65 total games he could’ve played in the regular season since being drafted in 2018. That’s including missing 26 of the 49 possible games in the last three years. That’s over half of the time being out with an injury. Last year, he finally delivered on his potential, but still missed 6 games. He may have won many people a championship, but it’s not worth drafting him again. He did get 749 yards on a 6.3 ypc, but that was with Russell Wilson. Defenses had to protect against the pass so they couldn’t stack the box. This year, no one will be afraid of Drew Lock or Geno Smith. Stacking the box will be common against the Seahawks. Penny provides very little in the receiving game as well with only 31 career targets, 23 receptions, and 206 yards in his 4-year career. Now, the Hawks drafted a top running back in Kenneth Walker? Plus, Penny has already dealt with an injury in camp. It’s just not wise to draft him at his current ADP which is RB29 and 67.5. I would so much rather draft Tony Pollard, Melvin Gordon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dameon Pierce, and even his teammate Kenneth Walker. Don’t pin your hopes on Penny.
DK Metcalf, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
I love Metcalf in dynasty and in the future. If the Seahawks take CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, SIGN ME UP. Yet, this year is one that should be about avoiding the Seattle Seahawks offense as much as possible. Sure, Metcalf will be the leading wide receiver for the Seahawks. He might reach 1,000 yards, might. But, it’s risky. He failed to reach 1,000 yards last year with Russell Wilson there for the majority of the season. Drew Lock and Geno Smith aren’t even in the same universe as Mr. Unlimited. DK will explode some weeks, but the consistency will be gone. He’s going to be an extremely hot/cold player this year that will take a lot of work to figure out when you should start him. I’d rather draft a guy I don’t have to worry about that with this year at the same price for Metcalf, or much cheaper. Fantasy Data projects Metcalf to finish as the WR20 with 74 receptions, 1,043 yards, and 5 touchdowns this year. That’s optimistic on the yards. I’d expect him to finish closer to his 2021 numbers which were 75 receptions and 967 yards. I doubt he hits 12 touchdowns again this year. He’s being taken at an ADP of WR15 and 39.2. Give me a break. I’ll gladly take Waddle, DJ Moore, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, or Mike Williams over him. Don’t draft the name or history, draft for the current value.
DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
I get why people are in love with Hopkins. I’m included. He’s an elite wide receiver that will get fed a lot of targets this year. However, he’s going to miss at least 6 games this year due to his suspension. Add in the fact the Cardinals have loaded their offense with Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz, James Conner, and many other strong-skill players and it gets tough to see Nuk getting a massive target share. Nuk’s target share dropped in 2021 compared to 2020 with the Cardinals, partially due to injury and also due to the defenses. Teams weren’t going to let Kyler pepper Nuk for 10+ targets a game. In 2020, Hopkins averaged 10 targets a game. Last year, it was only 6.4. I see him bouncing back to around 7.5 or so. Still good, but not WR1 great. In the games he played, DeAndre had 64 targets, 42 receptions, and 572 yards for 8 touchdowns. Pretty good numbers for only 10 games filled with injuries. This year, Hopkins will be healthy and I don’t see a reason to worry about him getting injured again. So far this year, Nuk is getting drafted at WR20 with an ADP of 51.3. With him missing 6 games, no thank you. I know he’ll do good when he plays, but those 6 games are crucial. I’ll take Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks, or Darnell Mooney among others before snagging Nuk. In the 5th/6th round, he isn’t a value. in the 8/9th rounds, he’s a value.
Michael Thomas, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints
So, how many games will Michael Thomas play this year is the question many have. Another is how will he do without Drew Brees? MT will be fine with Jameis. Winston can still throw the ball and Thomas will catch many. He’s practicing and the Saints believe he’ll be ready to go in Week 1. That’s big news for the Saints, their fans, and if you want Thomas on your fantasy team. The worrisome news is that Michael Thomas has played in only 7 games since the start of the 2020 season. That’s not exactly encouraging for a wide receiver that is now 29. Thomas will be trying to maintain his hold on the WR1 spot for the Saints, but Chris Olave will push him. It wouldn’t surprise many to see Thomas miss a couple of games this year. Alvin Kamara might not get suspended this year either which lessens Thomas’ potential target share. All these factors make it unlikely that Thomas will beat his ADP of being taken at pick 52 and as the WR21 off the board. The name value is what is raising his price. He won’t reach that tier. At least not unless he reverts back to his 2019 form. Some names to take over Thomas would be Hollywood Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Chris Godwin, and Elijah Moore among others. Don’t let the name or history value fool you. It’s easy to let happen. Focus on the present and the future.
Dawson Knox, Tight End, Buffalo Bills
Knox had a massive breakout year for the Bills in 2021. Truly, no one foresaw what Knox did in 2021. It was a mad dash to the waiver wire and to trade for him. It was a common third-year breakout for a tight end like many others seem to do. Playing tight end takes a lot of work to do really well. That’s why many take 2-3 years before truly breaking out. Last year, he played in 15 games and got 71 targets which he caught 49 of and had 587 yards for 9 touchdowns. He was a touchdown monster scoring one in 7 different weeks. So, one would expect another step forward for him in the Bills’ offense that has a lot of change coming with two new wide receiver positions being taken by Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. He certainly will likely do quite well this year. Fantasy Data projects him to finish as the TE12 with 72 targets, 48 receptions, 578 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Herein lies the problem. I expect to finish around those numbers too and be around TE12. Yet, he’s being taken as the TE9 at 87.1 ADP which is far too high for my liking. He’s getting taken before guys like Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, or Cole Kmet. I’d take each of those guys over Knox, but you can get them much later than Knox. Build out your depth and take two to three late-round tight ends. That’s how you build a great roster if you miss out on tight ends like Mandrews or Kelce. Knox will be good, but if you want more value, don’t take Knox. He won’t “bust”, but he will fail to meet his ADP and expected value.
As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open on 18/7. I respond to everyone.
