Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour season is quickly winding down for the 2021-2022 campaign as we move on from the first leg in Memphis, TN, to the second leg which is the BMW Championship in Wilmington, DE. We have 69 players competing this week, it was supposed to be 70 but Cameron Smith has withdrawn due to a hip injury, and there is of course no cut line to worry about after round 2 on Friday.
There’s another massive $15M purse available to be won this week, the winner enjoys $2.7M, and also banks a whopping 2,000 FedEx Cup points. Wilmington Country Club is 7,534 yards in length, it’s a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -19.4, but we have seen 7 different courses since 2012, so the number doesn’t matter too much. Place bets on golfers who are solid on approach, excellent off the tee, gain lots of strokes total, are good with sand saves, and avoid three putts as much as possible since we have massive greens this week.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the BMW Championship this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts? Patrick Cantlay with 3, Tony Finau with 3, Brian Harman with 3, and Scott Stallings with 3.
2. Which players have the most top 10’s at the BMW Championship over the last five years? Jon Rahm with 4, Tony Finau with 4, Patrick Cantlay with 3, and Hideki Matsuyama with 2.
3. Will Will Zalatoris falter this week? He’s coming off the emotional win last week, so it’s hard to say how we will respond this week. He’s currently at the top of the FedEx Cup standings, and while I don’t think we will see another win from him this week, he should be at least good for a top 10 or top 20 at worst given his talent and confidence level right now.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, top 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2000 and lower
Tony Finau (+1400) – Where there’s smoke there’s fire, and Finau has been firing on all cylinders over his last three starts with two wins and a T5 last week in Memphis. He has five top 5’s in his last eight starts, and has finished no lower than T28 over his last five starts – that came at The Open Championship in a stacked field. Every part of his game is in supreme shape right now, and he has been stellar at the BMW Championship with four top 8’s in the last five years and finished T15 last year. I like him to win, to finish top 5, and top 10 this week – I don’t usually go for top 5 bets, but will be making that investment this week given he has had three straight.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400) – Fitzpatrick has been excellent this year, especially lately as he won the U.S. Open in late June, and has six top 6’s over his last eight starts. He’s one of the best players off the tee and his short game is sublime – if only his approach play was stronger, he would be unstoppable but is still better than average almost every time he tees it up. I also like that he had a T6 two years ago at this event in his only look at the BWM Championship. I really like him as a top 10 bet this week, but you can certainly bet him to win and finish top 5 if you’re extra bullish on him this week.
Avoid: Scottie Scheffler (+1400) – He still holds the top spot in the world rankings, but he has slipped a bit over his last four starts with two missed cuts, and his stats have taken a hit as well, most notably on approach and his putter has been relatively cold since mid-May. He could have a big week this week to regain the top spot in the FedEx Cup standings, but I see a 20-something finish coming for him which isn’t good enough from a betting perspective given his short odds.
+2500 to +5000
Joohyung Kim (+3500) – I’ve been betting Kim like crazy lately and he just keeps paying dividends! He won the Wyndham Championship two starts ago, has three top 7’s in his last six starts and five top 26’s during that stretch. His ball-striking is fantastic and he has gained strokes with his short game in six of his last seven starts – his best performance being a 11.43 gain two starts ago when he won. He’s easy to bet to finish top 20 this week, and you could look into a top 10 wager, but I won’t be that aggressive with him.
Cameron Young (+2500) – Petal to metal for Young who has been stacking up top 3’s since his T3 at the RBC Heritage. He’s a ball-striking machine and can really pop with his short game including gaining 7.22 strokes in the stat category at The Open Championship. Perhaps Zalatoris winning for the first time last week has really inspired Cameron to win this week, and he’s certainly capable of achieving that goal. You can bet him any which way this week since he has huge upside, I currently have a top 10 and top 20 wager on him, but I’m also considering an outright, as well.
Avoid: Max Homa (+3500) – Homa’s play has dropped off over his last five starts – his best finish being a T16 at the Scottish Open, and he’s coming off a T42 last week where he lost 2.83 strokes ball-striking. I’ll be back on him once his approach play rebounds, but I’m not going to be early on Homa.
+5100 to +10000
Cam Davis (+6500) – Davis is playing some of the best golf of his young career right now with five straight top 16’s including a 6th place finish at the Barracuda Championship and a T8 at the John Deere Classic. He keeps ball-striking very well, can pop with his around the green game, but just needs better putting to get to the next level – thankfully he gained 3.19 with the flat stick last week, so the potential is there. I would bet him hard as a top 20 finish this week.
Brian Harman (+7000) – He has my interest this week with three top 8’s over his last five starts including a T3 last week where he gained 5.56 strokes on approach and 3.05 with his short game. He can’t seem to follow up his recent top 10’s with another strong finish, but he’s certainly worth a top 20 bet this week.
Avoid: Hideki Matsuyama (+6500) – Since finishing 4th at the U.S. Open, Matsuyama has a cut, a T68, and a withdrawal that would have been a cut also. His play has really tailed off and he hasn’t played in almost a month now due to a neck injury – buyer beware.
+11000 and higher
Trey Mullinax (+15000) – Mullinax was struggling this year but then broke out with the win at the Barbasol Championship, then had a T21 at The Open Championship, and is coming off a T5 last week where he played a solid all-around game except on the greens where he lost 0.25 of a stroke, but no biggie. I think the play here is a top 20 bet this week, but I’ll understand if you want to stay away from Trey since he could tail off at any time really.
Taylor Moore (+15000) – He has five top 31’s over his last six starts including a 6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a T5 at the Wyndham Championship, and he’s coming off a T31 last week. I look at Moore as a top 20, top 30, or top 40 bet this week, and really like putting down some sort of a wager given his strong ball-striking abilities and he’s quite solid with his short game also.
Avoid: Sepp Straka (+20000) – Straka came out of nowhere last week with a playoff loss to Zalatoris, but prior to that he missed six straight cut lines and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finishes 60-something this week. I’m calling an outlier week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but maybe he will surprise us again – keep in mind that he gained 6.01 strokes with his putter a week ago which is tied for his third-best flat stick performance of his career.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
