BMW Championship: 15 DFS Golf Picks
The BMW Championship DFS Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the BMW Championship. Check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS DraftKings lineups. Best of luck this week!
The BMW Championship
Preview for the BMW Championship: What a huge first PGA Tour win for Will Zalatoris at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week - he maybe didn't deserve it with Straka making multiple mistakes in the playoff holes, but they all count and it propels Will-Z to tops in the FedEx Cup standings thanks to him earning 2,000 points in the victory. This week is the second leg of the playoffs with the BMW Championship on tap, and it will be contested on a course never seen before in a playoff situation. This playoff tournament has been played since 2007, and Tiger Woods was the first winner in Cog Hill, Illinois. The record at this event came just last year when Patrick Cantlay shot a ridiculous -27 in Caves Valley, Maryland, to beat Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff. Over the last five years, winners of the BMW Championship include Patrick Cantlay in 2021, Jon Rahm in 2020, Justin Thomas in 2019, Keegan Bradley in 2018, and Marc Leishman in 2017.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week's event is $15M; the winner collects an insane $2.7M and also earns himself a huge 2,000 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Wilmington Country Club is 7,534 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the last five years ranges from -4 to -27, but different courses were used each time. It's a tad tricky to determine key stats this week since this course is new to many players, but the ones to keep in mind are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: off the tee, strokes gained: total, sand saves gained, and three-putt avoidance.
The field: It's an elite field of just 69 players this week with Cameron Smith out due to a hip injury, and every golfer will play each of the four rounds unless a withdrawal occurs. The world's top players are in action this week, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, and on and on. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A+.
Three questions that are relevant to the BMW Championship this week:
1. What are the top 10 players in my custom model? Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Joohyung Kim, Joaquin Niemann, Sam Burns, and Justin Thomas.
2. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes on approach over their last 24 rounds? The approach is a key stat that always matters - the top gainers recently are Scottie Scheffler, Mito Pereira, Will Zalatoris, Brendan Steele, Joaquin Niemann, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Tony Finau.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over their last 24 rounds? Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Joohyung Kim, and Aaron Wise.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: We got a max field of 69 golfers this week since Cameron Smith has already withdrawn, and there's of course no cut line to deal with. You can get super-aggressive with stars and scrubs' lineups, but it's extra important to pay attention to projected ownership this week given the reduced field. Pivot where you can, and you may want to leave at least $500 on the table if you compete in the large GPPs since duplicates are a concern and we will see many non-original lineups as a result.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week - here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add some tasty pieces of information.
The $10K+ Range
Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings - $10.0K) - He finally broke out last week with his first PGA Tour win after beating Sepp Straka in the third extra hole of the sudden death playoff with a bogey. He's a ball-striking machine - gained 9.55 last week, and has gained at least 2.33 in the stat category over his last seven starts. It's hard to say what version of Will-Z we will see this week, but if his ball-striking remains on and his putting is a bit better than average, then expect a top 10. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings - $10.3K) - Last week, Rahm had his first top 10 since the Memorial, thanks to great ball-striking. He has a solid history at this event, including winning two years ago, and if his putter can gain at least 2 or 3 strokes this week, then he should be right in contention. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T9, 2020 - Won, 2019 - T5, 2018 - T24, and 2017 - T5.
Rory McIlroy (Salary: DraftKings - $10.5K) - I'll forgive McIlroy for missing the cut last week since he had six top 8's in eight starts prior including winning the Canadian Open five starts ago. He has done quite well at this tournament in his career and did win it ten years ago in Crooked Stick, IN, beating Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood by two strokes. He should be plenty motivated to do well this week, and I expect a nice bounce back for Rory after missing the cut on the number last week. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T4, 2020 - T12, 2019 - T19, 2018 - T5, and 2017 - T58.
The $9K Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings - $9.7K) - Finau continued his hot streak last week with a T5 - gaining strokes across the board and now has three straight top 5's including winning the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has four top 8's at this event over the last five years, and with the way he's playing now, don't be surprised if he notches another this week. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T15, 2020 - T5, 2019 - T4, 2018 - T8, and 2017 - T7.
Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings - $9.5K) - Fitzpatrick has numerous top 10's this year, including winning the U.S. Open four starts ago, then he followed the major win with a T6 at the Scottish Open, and he's coming off a T5 last week. He has pretty much gained strokes across the board in four straight starts, and he had a top 6 two years ago at this tournament when it was played at Olympia Fields, IL. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 - T6.
Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings - $9.4K) - He may have missed two consecutive cut lines heading into last week, but he pulled off a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship thanks to balanced play throughout his bag. He had a T5 four starts ago at the U.S. Open and seems to be gearing up for a big finish this season. He hasn't fared well at this event yet, but he's young and poised to be a contender for years to come. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T63, 2020 - T20, and 2019 - T48.
The $8K Range
Cameron Young (Salary: DraftKings - $8.9K) - Over his last nine starts, he has two T2's, a 2nd, a 3rd, and a T3. He should have finished much higher than T31 last week, but he lost 5.50 strokes on the greens, so it sort of ruined him gaining 9.00 strokes ball-striking. The young stud will get his wins at some point, and it could all start this week if he can gain a few strokes putting since the rest of his game is quite impressive. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Joaquin Niemann (Salary: DraftKings - $8.6K) - He consistently finishes well almost every time he plays, and it's because of his solid ball-striking. If only he could rediscover a good short game, he could match his top 3 finish from two years ago. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T29, 2020 - T3, and 2019 - T31.
Tyrrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings - $8.2K) - Hatton has finished anywhere from T8 to T31 over his last four starts, and if he can put together a complete tournament in all stat categories - he can finish top 10 but a top 20 is his floor I would say. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2020 - T16 and 2018 - T29.
The $7K Range
Cameron Davis (Salary: DraftKings - $7.6K) - You got to respect the fantastic run that Davis is on right now with five straight top 16's including his 6th at the Barracuda Championship. Every part of his game is looking quite good right now, and if he can keep it up, he should have another teen finish this week. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T29.
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings - $7.7K) - Harman has earned three top 8's over his last five starts including a T3 last week in Memphis - he just finds ways to get it done. He hasn't blown fields away at this event, but did have a T12 two years ago, and I can see something similar coming his way this week. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T29, 2020 - T12, 2018 - 68th, and 2017 - T40.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings - $7.8K) - Things didn't go Henley's way last week, but in his previous two starts he had a T5 at the Wyndham Championship and a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. If his ball-striking returns to his baseline this week, then he should have a top 20 even with losing strokes on the greens - something that's happened in eight straight starts. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T60, 2020 - T25, and 2017 - T47.
The $6K Range
Taylor Moore (Salary: DraftKings - $6.4K) - We know Moore for his quality ball-striking but he's also above average with his short game. Over his last three starts, he has a T5, a 6th, and a 31st, and should be inside this range once again this week if his complete game holds true. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: None.
Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings - $6.6K) - Grillo has two T2's over his last four starts thanks to outstanding ball-striking and putting, and still managed a T31 last week despite losing 0.92 strokes on approach. His finishes at the BMW haven't been so good, but I think a top 30 is at least in the cards this week if his off the tee and putting game show up again. If his tidy approach play returns, then he could end up inside the top 20 - not too shabby for a mid $6K option. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2021 - T46, 2019 - T31, 2018 - T61, and 2017 - T57.
Troy Merritt (Salary: DraftKings - $6.3K) - His ball-striking stats have been fabulous over his last four starts gaining over 23 strokes combined, and he gained 4.47 strokes putting last week en route to a T28 in Tennessee. For pretty much a bare minimum golfer this week, you can't expect an elite finish, but another top 30 is certainly within reason. BMW Championship finishes over the last five years: 2019 - T43.
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Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.