Miles Sanders Fantasy
Miles Sanders has teased the fantasy community (and Philadelphia Eagles fans) with his efficiency and upside for several years now, but coming off his worse professional season, he is being drafted as the RB28, according to Fantasydata’s current ADP. This presents what would appear to be a strong buy-low opportunity. But as alluded to, there are reasons that Sanders is being drafted so low when his ability and opportunity should almost dictate that he be drafted much earlier.
In 2021 Sanders was on a decidedly run-first offense, one that ranked as the most run heaviest by percentage with a 52.7% run rate. The Eagles ranked second in volume, with 31.5 rushing attempts per game. With all of those available rushing attempts, you would be right to be concerned that Sanders could not reach 10.0 points per game, averaging a career-low 9.8 fantasy points per game. Is Sanders closer that the running back we saw last season, or is he closer to the running back that averaged 13.85 PPG over his first two seasons?
Share Your Work
As noted above, the Eagles were either the most run-heavy or second most run-heavy offense in the league last year, depending on how you measure it. The largest issue for Sanders was that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had 81% (9.3 rushing attempts per game) of the rushing work that Sanders did in 2021 (11.42 rushing attempts per game). Hurts was also a more effective runner than Sanders last year, outrushing him 782 yards to 754 while scoring ten rushing touchdowns to Sanders zero rushing (and receiving) touchdowns. Despite data that strongly suggests that mobile quarterbacks such as Hurts are loathe to target running backs in the passing attack, the Eagles actually ranked seventh-highest in the league last year with 22.7% of their pass attempts going to running backs. The raw target volume was less impressive as their 106 targets to running backs ranked 17th in the league. But that would be a symptom of having one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the league and does not mean that Eagles running backs weren’t involved in the offensive game. plan. Unfortunately, as with the rushing work, it’s just that Sanders also ceded a large share of this volume to another teammate, Kenneth Gainwell. Sanders compiled a 7.3% target share compared to Gainwell’s 10.7% share.
Miles Sanders played 128 more snaps than Ken Gainwell last year but somehow how had 16 fewer targets than Gainwell. pic.twitter.com/sVmctUkOmS
— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) August 7, 2022
Sanders has a miserable time trying to score touchdowns in 2021 and failed to score even once. The gut instinct is to say that regression will surely strike in 2022 and the flood gates should open for Sanders. But. The Eagles didn’t exactly show any trust in giving Sanders high-leverage carries last year. Among Eagles’ running backs, Sanders ranked third in rushing attempts inside the 20 (tied), the 10-yard line, and the 5-yard line behind Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. You could excuse Sanders for seeing less high leverage work than Scott, as he played 12 games compared to Scott’s 16 games, but Howard only played in seven games, so there’s no excuse there.
Though not an analytical argument, part of the reason Sanders isn’t adept at scoring touchdowns could be that his football IQ just isn’t that high. Whether it’s not taking a clear path to the end zone that your hall of fame center has cleared out for you, as shown below, or running out bounds twice on the same drive when the Eagles are attempting to run out the clock, Sanders simply makes too many mistakes on the football field.
I know Jason Kelce ain’t faster than Miles Sanders in a foot race. 😠pic.twitter.com/QQBXZPgLdE
— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) December 22, 2021
2022 Fantasy Forecast
Now keep in mind that even with every last negative factor I listed above, Sanders still finished as the RB32, and did produce three top 15 weeks in the 12 games that he played. So if you’re looking for reasons for optimism, you can certainly find it if you so choose. Despite some consternation around Boston Scott practicing with the starters instead of Sanders a couple of weeks back, all other camp reports have been glowing for Sanders. Even last year, though his overall production was lacking, he was still very efficient, averaging a career-high 5.5 yards per rushing attempt, though that was largely due to his top six breakaway rate more than anything else. Jordan Howard is also no longer on the roster, so there’s a chance that Sanders could see additional goal-line work in 2022. Our projections have Sanders barely missing out on an RB2 season, finishing as the RB25 and averaging 11.0 points per game next year.
Though I respect the level of work that goes into the projections, I have to quibble with a couple of facets of Sanders projections, specifically the 6.8 projected overall touchdowns. Though Sanders scored six touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, that modest figure will be near impossible to reach unless the Eagles suddenly change course regarding Sanders usage. He’s seen a decrease in target share every season of his career after posting a respectable 10.4% share in his rookie season that fell to just a 7.3% share, as discussed earlier. There’s also a troubling lack of usage in goal-to-go situations. Without targets and goal-line attempts, it’s difficult to envision Sanders seeing a significant scoring increase compared to his 2021 season. And though it’s hard to envision the Eagles turning into a pass-first offense, they did trade for A.J. Brown in the off-season and hand him a $100 million contract, so it’s safe to assume they will certainly skew more pass-heavy in 2022. Targets are worth more than rushing attempts in fantasy football, but as I discussed above, this is another area of Sanders game that continues to regress.
Even at this relatively reasonable ADP, Sanders feels like a trap. He’ll rip off a big run, and you’re suddenly tantalized by the “what ifs”. What if he can stay healthy? What if he can see more rushing attempts than the 11.41 attempts per game he saw last year, while still maintaining his 5.5 ypc? What if he can average more than the 2.83 targets per game that he saw in 2021? What if he can start making smart decisions on the football field? There are just too many “what ifs” for me to be comfortable drafting Sanders where he’s currently being drafted, and take a running back later in the draft with similar if not greater upside like Rashaad Penny or Kenneth Walker.
