Breece Hall Fantasy Outlook
Rookie running back Breece Hall is one of the most coveted players heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts. He’s a powerful runner with exceptional burst, speed, and strength that fuse to make him an enforcer when he’s the ball carrier. PlayerProfiler ranks Hall in the 94th percentile with a 131.0 burst score and also measures him inside the 98th percentile regarding Hall’s speed score.
Raise your hand if you’re excited to see Breece Hall go to work this season. ✋#TakeFlight
— Jets Nation (@JetsNationNYC) August 7, 2022
The 21-year-old running back dominated all three seasons at Iowa State, churning out double-digit touchdowns every season. This was due to his immense workload within the Cyclones’ offensive scheme, earning 532 carries across his final two years that resulted in 46 rushing touchdowns. Despite the massive workload, Hall still managed 5.8 YPC across his three-year career in the Big 12, showcasing his speed and one-cut ability to explode through rushing lanes.
Breece Hall is the most-bet player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year 🏆
He’s +900 to win the award.
📽️: @CFBONFOX | #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/KDW2mpiOGN
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) August 2, 2022
Hall has multiple family members who played in the NFL and was a big name in Kansas in 2019 when he committed to Iowa State as their top prospect. He lived up to the hype and now lands on a young team with a ton of talent surrounding him. The opportunity appears to be abundant in a zone-run blocking scheme led by the Jets’ second-year offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur.
Opportunity And Strengths
Hall is most impressive as a ball carrier, but he’s been displaying his hands as a pass-catcher throughout training camp.
Breece Hall with the hands 🙌📈
pic.twitter.com/k38QTQzXhD— Mojo (@mojo) August 4, 2022
Hall saw his target share increase by two percent each season at Iowa State, finishing his junior campaign in 2021 with a 9.9 percent target share that resulted in 36 receptions for 302 receiving yards and three touchdowns. However, he’s not a one-trick pony who will be off the field during passing plays. He could take more snaps away during pass protection sets from second-year running back Michael Carter due to his bigger frame (5-11, 217 pounds) and strength.
A closer look at the Jets’ backfield snap counts during the first year of the Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur regime in 2021 reveals quite a lot. LaFleur prefers to deploy two running backs with an even distribution in terms of usage in the running game versus the passing game. Carter and Ty Johnson each saw 9.5 percent of the target share, with Carter edging out the RB1 role earning 48.8 percent of snaps. Johnson, however, still managed to play 36.8 percent of snaps and was a frequent target in the passing game despite being the clear-cut RB2.
Based on last year’s distribution, Hall should easily surpass the 4.3 YPC average that Carter produced based on his superior running talent and an improved offensive line. While Carter still projects to see another 50 to 55 targets in 2022, Hall’s efficiency and explosiveness will shift the snap count heavily in his favor by October or November.
Weaknesses To Improve
There’s no tape to assess Hall against NFL defenses, but if there’s any concern, it has to be the number of carries he received during his collegiate years. Ezekiel Elliot was another dominant collegiate running back who exploded onto the scene during his rookie year with the Dallas Cowboys. He singlehandedly won fantasy football championships before slowly eroding and losing his burst. This has led to numerous conversations about Tony Pollard earning more carries and making the backfield more of an actual timeshare in 2022.
If Hall can replicate nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns like Elliot did in 2016, his only focus should be on maintaining durability via availability. Excluding wear and tear concerns, Hall has seemingly no other weaknesses to improve upon at this point.
Breece Hall Fantasy
Hall is currently the RB25 with an ADP of 51.9, per Fantasy Football Calculator. It’s not very often that you’ll find a quality RB1 with league-winning ability available to draft in the fifth round. However, Hall could quickly produce behind an improved offensive line or as Zach Wilson’s security blanket under pressure.
He’s a multi-faceted athlete with an incredible resumé that made the Jets’ front office use their 36th overall draft pick to bolster their backfield in 2022. Several running backs are going before Hall, including David Montgomery, James Conner, Antonio Gibson, Elijah Mitchell, and Josh Jacobs. Let other fantasy managers worry about the target share distribution and invest in the top rookie running back prospect with only a fourth or fifth-round pick.
After all, Carter finished 2021 as the RB29 in PPR formats with only 147 carries and zero receiving touchdowns. Hall can realistically reach 300 touches due to his talent and the opportunity on a young, improved New York Jets offense.
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